Bubbler86

Good Post. I think some, I am guilty too, post models as a way to cheer up the forum. I often see posts after a model post stating how the snow on that model is going to affect something as if the forecast is locked in. I think we all do it at times. LOL. So people take each run in a bubble per se at times. I am busy at work and you or someone else may have said it but to me the real value of modeling, at least in the lead up, is trends. In defense of model watching, you often see a lot of reference to them in AFD's though they also mention why they are adjusting away from the verbatim,

I am not sure any here even rely solely on models. Some of us enjoy the game of model watching and that is why we throw them all out there and compare as we go but lots of convo here about fgen, precip being eaten by dry air, etc and what it could or could not do for us and that was not shown on the models. Ironically all that non model convo was wrong too as the better forcing set up north of us and there was not a sharp cut off like a lot of us discussed (at least not near us.)

Yep, would not bet any money on it can still track and hope. We are close to 4" here with several measurements. Elevation probably helped with the extra precip dumping as it climbed the mountain. Still a bit underwhelming to me as well after trends late yesterday. The post plow snow hill was quite high so almost all laid on the streets. 3K too

@Chris78 the latest HRRR rocks us after dark.

On this radar view you can see some of the forcing in N Central PA is collapsing back a bit. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I think the 500 low is in SE Ohio right now

AKA dryslot. 700 Meso

What I call Rouzerville but actually part way up the mountain. We are near 4 now. Snowing at a decent clip.

3.5" close to official measurement right now.

Some fairly decent returns up to near the NY Border.

19 and eyeballing 3-4". Not much coming down right now and radar looks a little weak just to my west so not sure we double that today, we shall see.

The WSW for HGR now says 8-12 with 18" lollipops.

Lanco making a move to pass Krou.

I started at 2-4 several days ago but eventually went with 8 at hgr as I just did nws stations. I am still good with all my calls....8 here, 6 thv, 4 at lanco and mdt.

Smithsburg closed until Wed? Lol

York and Lancaster are very close to warning criteria and we considered an upgrade with the afternoon cycle, but will hold the line for now at 3-5" in collab with WFO PHI. Snow rates/intensity should taper off Monday afternoon, as the low level jet and plume of deepest moisture shifts east of PA. However, lingering light snow is expected into Monday evening over the southern part of the forecast area associated with the passage of the 500mb trough. Any snow from the departing low pressure system should be over by 05Z Tuesday. A cold northwest flow will then generate scattered late night lake-enhanced snow showers over the NW Mtns and Laurels. However, low inversion height suggest any accumulations will be very light. Temperatures throughout the event will be cold (in the 20s) which will keep precip types all snow (no ice/mix expected). This will translate into a relatively dry/fluffy snow character and allow for more blowing and drifting as the wind picks up Monday night.

Latest HRRR which is the WAA push. 1-3" to go... more to the east with 500 and prospective coastal trough. If the HRR is close to right, most of my predicts will fall short.

A yearly tradition....

Latest HRRR snow on the ground around Noon and still snowing

Some of my clients which host private learning are already calling off Tue along with the obvious Mon closing...pushing back the sad 'out of the holidays season' to Wed.

No offense, but that area could get 200" and I would still choose to live here.

Can we push back to Sunday, please? I saw someone on the MA say it was too late for any changes for that storm? LOL. I must have misread that post.

Kind of late for globals (as in 24 hours late IMO, do not have to agree) but the GFS is like it was 3-5 days ago with the transfer look. Similar to 12Z, some down 1/2, some up 1/2".