Bubbler86

Check out your favorite model site and you can 'RAP' up some concerns maybe?

It could be so much more though with that track. I love the 6-10" hammer (some silly person on MA just said no models have 4" above the m/d) but perplexed a bit why it is not.

It is quite the perplexing thing. The track is beautiful, really no transfer until it does not matter anymore, but the forcing minors out and the dry slot is huge. Blizz will approve of the gfs though.

Rgem more souther after the Icon bump up. Still no where near an agreement.

18z icon a little more amped and more coastal influence. Still minors out mid event due to transfer.

As long as some aspects of its predict are realistic we can allow it to weigh into thinking IMO. I was initially gung ho in thinking either 1) This system is minoring out due to a jump 2) Or sans a jump, it being pushed well south and the jackpot zone being closer to central VA. But, there have been so many runs of different numerical suites that show it attacking north that I do not think the Norther solutions can be ignored yet. I still hold 2-4 or 3-6 souther counties and lesser above Harrisburg but could change. As posted above, just 48 hours ago the Euro had me getting 8-12".

Edit-Fixed to Kuch

Has the sharp cut off which I actually like to see (no offense to any northers) as it suggests it is realistic.

Most verification scores are based on 500H and fronts, not waa, temps and snow maps. Everyone keeps saying the Euro has been rock steady. It has rock steadied a good 6-8" from me in less than 2 days. Here is the Euro from less than 48 hours ago followed by the one today. These are 10-1 maps so the difference is even larger than shown here re Kuch. Now, no modeling has been been rock steady but the long range HRRR, when looking at 500H and fronts, is getting close to be just as valid at this point as a lower resolution global 24-36 hours before an event. Most professional forecasters do not use Global NWP's this close to an event. We do because we love the "game." You rarely see a short range AFD mentioning the Euro or GFS.

Also a case where a few runs of foot or more, and Joe Bastardi, setting unrealistic expectations.

Looks like the current watches remain appropriate.

I think it was border line wsw in parts of lsv. 6z. In car and off duty now. Lol

Icon is not amped and is only a wwa level event for lsv

Euro is not a miss for you but not to the level of the meso's so far this am. Uk is a total miss....new icon coming out now.

This is post 500 low pass

500 Low snow just a tad south of us this run although it ticks bubbler and mitch heading into Mon night with some coastal ummph.

Your map is 6 hr precip not radar

Can the 500 Low catch up in time to give us Monday night snow?

Dry slot nearing at 54. Philly getting phlattened

Snow spreading into SW CTP early Monday AM on 42 hour Nam. Another case of two areas of lowest pressure with the Norther most in KY and Souther in AL.

Depending on when/if a transfer occurs, HRRR was going to have some excessive snow totals for much of PA.

HRRR whaling on Southern 2/3 of PA wth a dual barrel low of which the Eastern most piece is in KY and the Western as shown.

12Z HRRR has snow spreading into SW CTP area around or just after midnight Monday AM.

Voyager, NWS made this map for you

The Nam is a good Ole Fashioned Bowling Ball. Best case for us if well to our south....but so many others keep Miller B'ing it. Would like to see other progs not transfer.