Bubbler86

Remember that if this thing goes through Central or Southern VA before going poof to the coast, what qpf we do get will translate well. .2 could easily be 3-4". This does not help those well north though.

Frigid low of 17 this AM. Holding tight with my 2-4" for the LSV...yesterday euphorically posted that big snows were possible if the storm rode through N VA and did not transfer as early, as some models were showing, but the lesser qpf here models are now showing the vort feeling the effects of the NE Canada low which I thought was the most sensical evolution. A transfer to the Carolina coast not out of the question now...think the 18Z GFS showed something similar.

Those folks up there were always fleeting IMO....unless these system ignored the known limitations of multiple of slps and how they react to each other. BUT the Euro has not moved as much as the CMC, UK and GFS over the last week if you throw out the Euro's 0Z Mon run.

Ruin jinxed us!

This includes the small amounts tomorrow.

You can change the zoom from continental US to regional and pick the dot in the Northeast. It can be cumbersome on mobile though.

Lol, I was not trying to not have Mitch post but was unsure if you knew it was free.

Pivotal has free Kuch ICON FWIW.

Icon pulled back a bit on its warm push and is an LSV Lancer with no mixing in any part of eastern PA. One to two feet. (Not a forecast)

If a new sip starts developing off the coast, it will shut down the column warm up and we do not change (but have the dry slot risk, Miller B dilemmas.). Even in Miller A's, if the slp gets close enough, southern PA can change over despite antecedent cold.

It was still transferring on most suites just later than it had been. If it were to ride the m/d line and not transfer, I think a lot a Southern PA would change to ice. If it runs through VA then stop the transfer all ya want.

Mix line is a bit close. Need a transfer. Lol

SEC ya later. UM beats High Tide too.

Acc lite

Here is the Euro from 3 days ago

That might be a better question for one of the guys who record events better than I do.

As long as it transfers :-). Icon turns us into slop.

Yep, it is all about the transfer IMO. I mean it is an M/D runner. If it never transfers I turn into rain here. The models have been so consistent on a transfer....now a little bit of doubt.

Well to clarify, when you say cold suppressing.... it is other features on the map actually. I am not sure anyone here or in any thread fully understands it but in the case the low (bowling ball) coming from the west is in bullying its way to relevance longer which in turn brings more of a SE flow and moisture tap into much more of PA instead of it giving up to the coastal earlier. It is still being blocked from cutting to our west but something changed to allow it to go quite a bit further East than progged just 24-48 hours ago. Some models like the UK foretold of this possibility. I did not believe it and it still may be folly but cannot ignore it at this point.

We were very close to a phase there...vort in the upper midwest has a kicker quality to it.

That pesky H is getting in the way of a monster

The GFS and Icon both hold onto the primary longer IMO. If that happens then we are all in the game for 6-12 with JB Lollipops. Not that it is a given yet but the longer transfer delays, the more lift we bring into our hood. If this is not a real Miller B then it is going to wallop us based on these runs. I keep forgetting these Kuch maps include any snow tomorrow per the GFS. King Icon leading the way?

Not sure what the PBP in the MA is seeing but the GFS made a substantial move North with the fgen snows. Coastal influence into Tue. Sort of backs the Icons move but not quite as drastic.