Not directed at you but the way some (mostly on the MA) follow patterns 15 days out as if the modeling is "better" in that period has always left me confused. Sure, could be right but it is the same modeling that people mock 2, 3 days out sometimes. Now, pattern recognition is more broad scale and less subject to minor deviations like a short term synoptic forecast but discussing what a model/group of models is showing vs taking it almost carte blanche are two different things. This is not to say the "great pattern" is not coming vs. Wonder aloud why this seemingly repeating pattern of LR forecasting keeps happening each winter. Fun to track, not fun to buy in a 15 day model guess then be left holding the bag. I think we defintely see more snow this year either way...but should not be a surprise that what looked almost perfect is subject to change at that distance.