Bubbler86

I had posted my thoughts this AM. Unless we get a more severe cut to save us before any transfer, I think we are sitting in the 2-4" range as of now. I know there is the always commented trend north but that is going to take a weakening of the high currently progged IMO. So, "if" that happened then North can proceed. No time to study models today but still wonder if there will be a screw zone to our south and west where people are seeing higher totals on snow maps. PS-has been graupling on and off all day over here. Temps near 40.

Some of it is SW air delivery. I have the same "issue" over here in Franklin. Where I see those 5 shades in one county it has frequently been in areas that change over quickly with SW intrusion.

On mobile so not posting over but that cut off shown on the UK, regardless of where, as is how I personally see this playing out if a sip does attack the dome.

Snow is snow. Both Nam and Rgem showing a "bullseye" for the southern tier late Friday.

The 84 hour Nam's surface chart is not that much different than the EC. Low is a few MB's weaker but in a similar position. The high coming out of Canada is pressing a slight bit more. The cold press from the SLP in NE Canada and Block up there is a bit higher as the 540 line is down in Central NC instead of SC. But no way to extrapolate much from this IMO

The 1/3 or 4 threat is the one some keep trying to bring back in the MA. But yea, spacing here is everything as I think many agree on.

Definitely can change, I am posting what I see currently as well as a bit of my gut. I do not see the 6Z GEFS having a bullseye over us though. That qpf map I posted above was from 6Z.

Just model disco. I do not play the game of wishcasting. 2-4" of snow would still be nice it if happened.

Not a big fan of even using ensemble qpf maps but if one looks at the qpf totals for both the GEFS and EPS (which again is always a risk especially with extreme events) , our area is the precip hole because the low's forcing/energy transfer out from under us while it is making its approach. Major changes in the initial approach or the high's pressure could change this dramatically so this is just a model discussion as to these 2 maps but this scenario has been the more common one for several days now.

2" near I80 would not be out of this world with the modeled setup (does not mean that is what actually happens) just not sure nay of the real fgen gets up here with the block. Outside a few outliers like the UK, models have consistently shown the system minoring out in some manner (transfer.) I think 2-4" for much of the LSV would be a super safe call right now as it would not take much snow to accumulate with the cold. Less Eastern LSV.

I would put the big snows Fredericksburg and East right now if doing a forecast that far out. Big as in 6-10".

I unfortunately am in DT's camp right now. I am not sure this one is ours. I feel like we have a better shot with the next one that sweeps up from the SE. For that heavier swath of snow to get to us we will need it to cut a bit more. There is one thing I do not like in his wording and that is tracking East. More and more buying into the Miller B scenario where the block is such that it does not track, it transfer. So those EC totals would be overdone as a whole area total vs. smaller/specific areas.

Happy New Year's all.

It was a group effort...like using ensembles for snow maps.

Congrats to Psu. I thought Boise showed their skill but could not break away on enough big plays. Psu deserved the win.

Boise's kicking game has countered PSU's negative play calls. Uncomfortable watching that non-athletic guy. Boise's offense is top notch but all these errors.

Yep.

Boise missed a fg and also had a bad fumble...and their d-back missed a pick 6 opportunity. Psu obviously playing better but this game could be a lot closer.

Boise d-line asserting themselves. Psu 4th down call was super risky. Worked out though.

Boise QB going out of bounds there is total lack of awareness of this game. They (Boise) need to stay close and steal this game but that involves smart plays which that was not.

A nice April evening.

Boise State tackling is terrible. Their defense is not premier but this is less that ideal from their linebackers. Officials keeping Boise in the game. Psu pre-snap penalties aren't ideal either.

Boise may embarrass me like someone quoting the 84 hour nam.

WE ARE.......not going to believe the 18Z GFS.