Bubbler86

A post on the MA forum hit the nail on the head with the entire run of the 12Z GFS except the southern slider well into the 300's, no room for amplification. The storm on the 6th has a retrearting High and another low boxing it in our system with nothing for it to do except slowly die off.

For today's runs, that is the 9th re: the piece of energy that rides in similar to a clipper. I did not look into it too much but runs into confluence/or similar and can never develop. For later, we are all in the game when talking about a situation over 7 days from now :-).

GFS goes on to have a boundary rider a few days later but it also dampens it with only light snow for western parts of this forum. The area of LP hangs around just to our south but never produces precip in the LSV. GEM also dampening the 6th low (not fully cutting like some of the comments elsewhere, there are two areas of lowest pressure) so that is the trend here. Not enough space for amplification especially with it trying to attack a surface high to its SE.

12Z GFS basically continues to dampen it out over here though it does snow a little. The thing about the timing on this, first day back for kids and a lot of adults, makes it extra important per se.

Gust of 44 here. MDT on the 30's board as to gusts, AOO gusting into the 40's.

The storms and rumors are always an interesting aspect of the model watching but I will admit that when it comes to the artic outbreak shown on the 280+ Euro OP, I have PTSD as to posting any of those maps because it seems we have yearly bouts with blocking lining up correctly to pour the coldest of cold down into the US (on the GFS previous since the Euro op has not gone out this far until this year but plenty of ensemble members as well). Recently they have all been 10+ days out and the moderation march ends up with a much less severe cold shot in reality. Eventually it will happen in some form but hard to bite on it again.

48 this AM with only .05" of additional rain last night. On the subject of anomalous weather, MDT has already recorded a 59 or 60 today and their current low of 51/52 is 8 or 9 degrees above the Max Min for the date though Meso's suggest they will be able to get down below the current record of 43 before midnight tonight.

Just for fun the 18Z GFS Jan 6th/7th Miller A. For people really into the science, this is literally just for fun.

It got up to 72 in our place so the AC is booming. Today is one of the warmer winter days I have experienced in the last 6 years.

Still 65 here after a high of 67. Even MDT managed to get well into the 60's. As someone else pointed out, today would be a record on many Dec days.

18Z GFS hints at Bermuda Miller B for Tue as well. Leaves the LSV with sparse precip for NYE. But drawing interest for Jan 6th-7th with a more enhanced push of pressure from our NE.

RIP Jimmy Carter . A lot of important people passing away lately.

Early summer in some cases. Some models have the transfer taking place near Bermuda and dry here. If we have to deal with warm days, let them be on weekends.

Some 68-70's on wu now.....66 in rou.

That phrase storms and rumors of storms is a Joe B/Elliot Abrams things in my memory.

The Joe B/Blizz storms and rumors of storms certainly applies to the Jan 6th and on period. Just need to get it several days closer to really see some model consistency to try and "parse" more details.

GFS still has cutter with front end frozen to start off the second week of January. Not present on GEM. Up to 64 here now. Did not know we would be getting mid-upper 60's today. I was forecasting 61-63.

Some of the models started backing off the rains 24-48 hours ago but here is the 12Z Thur GFS for time period 90 min from now. Drastic difference vs. radar as of now.

Not at all and latest model runs are underwhelming for both tonight (which was supposed to be an all day rain today) and possibly Tue but Tue is a Miller B so nothing ever set in stone with that. Just .35 so far for the weekend here.

Partly sunny and 62 here. Were it not for the crazy wind and the rain still to our west, it would be a chamber day.

Almost to 60 already. Gust of 42.

54 this AM. A dark and dank Sunday probably upcoming. Record high at MDT is a crazy 75 today so not reaching that.

Agreed. I forget which run/model I looked at but two days it looked like it was going to stay in the lows 40's over here today. Now we are headed for an AN high anomaly of close to 20 degrees. Already 52 up at elevation. Mid 50's north of me.

Did he mean a Snoop Dogg Fo Sure or For Sure?

Thank you, and yes (although I am guilty occasionally too) the one thing that makes me cringe is seeing posts with definitive statements. A day or two ago a statement that Saturday WILL be a rainy, coolish day looked like a sure bet. It is currently Partly Sunny and 46 here...maybe headed for a run near 60. Other NWS sites, except MDT, all into the 40's already.