Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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It was just flashes in the sky. Could have been south of me but we had rumbles and a minor light show.
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Wait, the general public does not look at 7 day longer ranger weather models and take them as gospel?
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Lightning in the area.
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Does not bode well for the Peaches (no offense to your pick)
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3rd day in a row to hit 60 here. Flamethrower of a post Christmas
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Our friends to the south do especially when it was showing a footing.
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Just checking in. Disappointing to lose the euro. But yes, spot on that we know nothing at this point except that it will probably be cold enough.
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I am away from my PC now but thinking the Euro really cut back on the extreme cold/PV drops into the MA idea. The GFS was still quite cold 14-15 days out but....14-15 days out. I did not look at ensembles though.
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A week out and I am not going to use words like going to. A cut and transfer could screw most of us. I think the Euro is the only one not cutting right now. Fortunately we have some decent cold air to protect us. But fingers crossed we are good with this one.
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Time to be cautiously optimistic IMO as I think it has a better than 50% chance of snowing in a week.
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Blizz must still be sleeping to not post the bulbous WB Kuch Euro map for Jan 6/7th. A Mid Atlantic Mauler with close to a foot even up to the M/D Line. Decent snows into our area but lessening as one goes North. Some other suites are more Miller B like in their presentation so a screw zone develops near us as we lose the lift in the atmosphere. 0Z UK was more similar to the Euro but focuses on this area instead of the MA as a low cuts to our west but CAD holds all levels here before a transfer happens.
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Good on you, man. Thanks for taking her in and yea, you can't be too careful until tests are done especially FELV. A new pet for a new year :-)
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43 this PSU AM. Another nasty (for me) inversion in progress with 30's all around me in valleys. HRRR has adjusted the more vigorous area of lightning and thunder for today a bit east and focuses on the Lanco area which was in line with SPC's calls from yesterday though they have expanded their map now. Has a thinnish squall line crossing Lanco around 8PM today.
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0Z HRRR really cranking up the NYE fireworks show tomorrow evening. NWS has been bullish on this but not much model support until now. HRRR had a bit lesser version of it at 18Z.
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So both Texas and ASU forfeit? :-)
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MDT's near midnight high of 60 will stand as the high today. They now have 8 hours to drop 10 degrees thus avoiding the Max Min record for the day. Meso's still say they make it.
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I believe the GA/ND odds are the closest of all 4 games. AZ State sounds very confident so my pick of Texas worries me a bit. I knew everyone here would cringe at my pick of a Oregon roll of OSU but I am an offense first guy and Ohio State has already lost to them once.
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No worries. If we all knew the right answer then sports books would not take bets :-).
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My Picks PSU 31-Boise 27. Good Karma pick for the group. I think Boise is underrated (but who knows how they show on this stage). Closed roof/indoor game. Texas 29- ASU 19 Roof Closed I believe. Oregon 44-OSU 20 Outdoor game...maybe the only one. ND 34-GA 20 Closed roof stadium. (UMass scored 21 on GA and GA Tech dropped 40+ on them just in the last 2 months)
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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Bubbler86 replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I have been informally tracking this a bit and the Rgem/CMC frequently out performs most other suites when it comes to forecasting radiationally cooling. Not overly helpful in precip situations but it is the go to for us when the situation is right. It is often "too cold" but much closer to reality than not. -
From the 0Z EC to the 12Z, the temp on the morning of 1/11 went from -8 at Harrisburg to 17.
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The closer I look at the EC, it seems more like a Miler B/Transfer. SLP forming in South Virginia on panel 168.
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Yea, I had edited my post that Kuch would be high. I saw a WB map but was not going to quote that. It was 2-4" higher than this map.
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EC looked like a big dog was coming in but also dampened out/held steady vs. deepening...still a decent event this run. 3-5" for southern LSV on 10-1. Kuch surely higher. A little more to the west and less North.
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Yea, basically just model disco going on from me. That is the fun part sometimes. Why did a prog do something.
