Bubbler86

62 here. Not too shabby. A lot lower than a few days ago but the next couple days are back near or above 70. Just for fun....Dp's in the 30's in WV. GFS likes the drama.

Florida Ocean temps shockingly warm https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/10/florida-ocean-temperature-heat-records/

In fairness, 90 on the dot is only 2-3 degrees above normal. That is why I am not a fan of using it for heat wave designations. 3 AN is not a heatwave.

I think the ensembles were just as bad this past winter. It was just more voices with bad info. If I had a dollar for every time I was told that bad news on the Op's did not mean anything because the ensembles said so......Not to say models should not be used but it has been a bruising journey the last 6-12 months.

Late nooners...a tad smokey but generally sunny and 78.

12Z GFS and Nam 12 both are not all that thrilled about Thur night now. GFS clips me as the precip is fading but Nam is a big nothing.

LOL. Plus the grass would be sun challenged, I should have said cloudier than now.

Definitely helped the grass. If it were cloudy all the time, we would be fine with rain once or twice every two weeks. A little smokey over here as well.

Yea. Timing of the day is important as well. I think 1/2" of rain at 10 in the morning followed by baking July sun is less beneficial than 1/4" of rain at 8PM.

I will take 1/2" every 2-3 days over 2" in a day and nothing for a week.

I would think there is a good chance of rain Thursday night. Even if not heavy/it is just scattered. We got 1" of rain Sunday and already have to water the plants and veggies (potted and in ground) so it will be welcome if we can get some. Grass is more resilient and would be good until Thursday.

There is a piece of energy progged to move near PA Thursday night. Nam and Icon would give the LSV heavy rain, GFS a bit North in the MSV and CMC farther north than the GFS.

57 for the low this Am. Pretty nice.

Ha. I was more or less joking about how things can change fast. But I hope no one goes dry for two weeks in July.

I know it is hard to fathom but I think if you got no rain for 2 weeks, with this sun, your creeks would be drying up and the ground would be dust.

Dude went on a "pay or burn" rampage through many towns out here and Western Md.

Surprised no one with a city as big as C-Burg.

How much is the pay? :-)

I saw a 4+" total in Northern York County on Coco. I rarely see any Franklin county totals on Cocorahs for whatever reason.

59 for the low this AM. Up to 64 now.

You headed down to D1? I say yes.

If you saw that Michaux brew pic I put up, over a single mile it went from Florida monsoon to me standing there dry in Rouville. It rained a good hour plus about 2" one mile west from there with no rain in. that locale. Then the rain that did eventually get here, never really went past Blue Ridge just to the east.

It helps keep Blizz on his toes when I post about it :-). On your point, just the orientation of the precip with WAA is usually SW to NE where as many of these convection based events either have little steering flow or go straight west to east. Both of the later will be more profoundly affected by Leeward Rain Shadow issues. Take today, the rain over Waynesboro formed right over the area so no chance for it to dry out entering the valley...but look who did not do well? The people immediately Leeward of my ridge.

I have been here 5.5 years so only have that much history but my neighbor, a farmer, says we are in a permanent summer drought. The farmer warned be about the Great Valley and how it will rob near obvious rain every summer and he was pretty spot on. See map below. The rain shadow effect as you call it. My closest NWS Station does average about 9" LESS of precip per year than MDT does but I have found I almost always outpace them in the winter because of the high propensity of non-convection-based systems pushing WAA in from the SW. Being on the windward side of the mountain, the rain/snow is wrung out over my rapidly rising elevation. The Great Valley has much less of an effect on non-convection forcing qpf. So, it is fairly rare when we get a WAA event from the SW that I get less qpf than MDT. Usually, it is more. I think overall I average about 2-3" less qpf than MDT over a year....more in the winter and less in the summer.

Here is a piping hot cup of Indiana for you. Two areas where D2 abnd bno drought are a county or two apart. Also, a D3 to no drought over a couple counties in Missouri.