Bubbler86

Time for the 12Z Blues to go away in lieu of the 18Z HH ups.

The LSV does anafrontal snow like no ones business (not). No offense to your thoughts....

We got to 47 today. A 5-10 degree bust by the models only 6 hours back.

I have Cook. HIs TD only happened because of an instant replay on Ryans Qb sneak. The Colts have made a season out of choking.

Looks like it is still snowing in Buffalo.

Several in the MA thread are throwing the towel in for Dec. Kind of crazy. It is Dec 17th. Our forecasting technology has trouble getting 24 hours forecasts correct.

My hope/thought on this one is that it is Miller/new formation type situation so too early to count it out. If a low was forming in the heartland and cutting, yea it might be more clear. Scanning through the 12Z GFS and watching the evolution, there are 3 areas of energy in play.

With that said, it is only Saturday. Just like a HECS being shown now, a no go being shown can revert back. Lots of twitter mets may throw it under the bus and say it is over but being a met that makes predicts a week out is guaranteed of one thing...being wrong a lot (no offense). We can look at models as of now and make determinations based on what they show today but like the ensembles, just one small change in an environmental situation can butterfly effect itself into a totally different result 5 days from now.

It seemingly happens 8 or 9 out of 10 times whether leaning on ensembles or ops.

Burn both our asses. That damn waddle walk. Still torn on Davis. He has not had a good week in quite some time.

Same here with week one and my opponent has Tua and waddle. Not sure what to think about the game.

Up to 42 now. Wind is still chilly.

Already up to 38 here. Surprised it is warming so fast.

Another worry for Bills players in fantasy (and Miami)

I think we are advanced enough here to look beyond the zones which are more for non-weather public. Just as likely we get 16" as 1/2" I would think.

6Z GFS has a two-wave setup with 4-6" of snow for much of Eastern PA, except less Southeast where mix and rain come into play, and then another 3-6" of snow on the second wave. First wave is Thursday the 22nd and second wave is mostly Friday afternoon. Surface temps get up to the mid 30 for the Southeast LSV as part of the mix and rain scenario of the first wave as the low goes from Havre De Grace-Philly-NYC. Second wave tries to do a weak/late phase with the displaced PV but that primarily affects areas north of here. May secure a white Christmas for all even if the snow from the first wave gets washed away in the Southeast...though surface temps are still questionable even during the second wave. Low 30's. Not a lot different from 0Z minus some minor west corrections to low placement of first wave and a more amplified second wave causing final totals to be higher where it does not turn to mix or rain.

Straight up 32 here this AM. 38-42 highs seem modeled. Good shopping weather for last full weekend before Christmas day. 6Z GFS has negative lows for the LSV Christmas night. My -1 to -2 departure for MDT is at risk of being "too warm" with the modeled late month temps...though some 40's for highs possible next week.

Bang, bang niang. Lol. First time I heard that.

There is blind shutting going on in the MA. LOL.

I take it back, one thing definitely changed today. @Itstrainingtime went into the PBP hall of fame with a Harry Carrey level call of a modeled Hec's. I did not hear any bangs or booms so maybe something to work on there (Lol) but it was a great performance.

He is mad at the models for ruining the snow, thus the name ruin! LOL

I just think both "sets of data" (ops and ensembles) have their place and are both valuable 3, 5, 7, 10 days out and like you said, not much has changed since yesterday with lots to be resolved. The scenario that gives us a Hec's is truly a hope and pray timing scenario that could have ensembles and op's showing 2 feet until 24 hours before and it still fail to produce. And on a somewhat personal note, I still have some thought that a Hec's the day or two before Christmas will cause a lot of families to miss their loved ones for the holiday so if it happens, it happens...not going to wish against it, but if a frontal passage of 2-4" happens then it is White Christmas and still family time, not going to fret and feel bad. Good to have something to track though

Yesterday the op's were not good enough and we should lean on ensembles....today one or two op's show rain and there is a run on the bank (no offense to anyone just, a general sense). Has much really changed over the last 24 hours?

Jb is as wrong (or right) as anyone else who tries to guess weather a week away. But yea lots of runs to go.