Bubbler86

The 18Z GFS is still quite vigorous in suggesting temps will work out positively for snow on both the front and back end for parts of the LSV. Front end is Western LSV and back is actually more east. Easiest to just post the snow map that covers both events. Still snowing in the western 1/3 and North Central parts of the state at this point.

On the GFS they are primarily out of the West in the 6 hour panel after the front passes.

MU not looking for snow either. He/they do have temps making a running into the mid to upper 50's prior to the front. If that happens CXY may make a run for 60. I do not have access to the models that guestimate flooding potential but lots of streams above normal in the East Central part of the state and a few in the LSV as well. .

We do not get much CAD here either (I am on the other side of the ridges from the LSV), but we had pretty extensive Ice and lots of tree damage just a few hundred feet above me (up the mountain). I am not that familiar with the layout of the Laurels as to who might have received ice. I know Mag had quite a bit. So just wind damage, wow. We never had that much wind here....not damage level at least.

Was the damage from wind while the trees were still encased in ice?

Another trick if on a PC/Mac (not mobile) it is to bring them up on your screen, use a snipping tool to snip a shot of it, then paste it into the post. More cumbersome to do that on mobile though you can do it with a snipping app there as well.

Your titillating reference easy outclasses my offering of vernacular. Well played.

LOL. The GFS has 4-6" for Pittsburgh by Sat AM. The Euro has a car topper that will be blown away anyway.

Yea, it looks like the more typical front passage type snows. Squalls and showers.

Friday accumulating snow is limited mostly to the West Central Mountains of PA on the EC. Snow showers in the LSV. And inch or two in the northern part of the MSV.

EC has some frozen in true Central PA Thursday afternoon....rain for the LSV and LV

Sure but I could be wrong with that clue of snow fallen and was basically saying you found a strange difference. Maybe someone else will have more factual thoughts than my guess. But I love discussing model differences, so I thought I would throw out a thought.

Maybe we are looking at different time periods or I am reading the panel wrong. I normally do not spend much time forecasting win(d) in lieu of using the NWS forecast. Here is one of the higher panels I saw. I noticed your win(d) comment. LOL

Each "model site" has algorithms, often different, they use to compute snow. Tropical Tidbits computes sleet and snow on the same panel as you have probably read so their maps are often over inflated for snow fall totals vs. being under like you pointed out. But I see what you are talking about in this case, and it is a bit strange as the presentation on the Tropical Tidbits precip maps would suggest more than 3" of snow would fall in your location. Anyway, here is how Pivotal computes including the comments that it uses snow fallen.... not necessarily snow that will accumulate so that may be one clue to the difference. They are discussing something similar in the MA thread and speed of the front among other things was mentioned as a possible explanation for inconsistent snow maps this run. https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall Our snowfall products generally attempt to forecast the snow that falls to the surface; not necessarily the snow pile you see on the grass, interstate, your rooftop, or anywhere else after a long storm. There are some caveats with Kuchera (penalizes warm temperatures in part to account for on-ground melting) and accumulated positive depth change (explicitly accounts for melting, albeit with model data file frequency as a confounding factor) — but none of these products will consistently provide an accurate forecast of final ruler-measured snow depth, even if the model’s QPF and vertical profile are spot on!

GFS has some near 30MPH winds in the Eastern LSV Friday afternoon....at 10M/33 feet above ground. I am not really up on knowing the science of measuring how much mixing would occur down to the surface from 925.

Whether it snows or not, this is impressive. Too far west for the previously progged Mecs/Hecs but still quite an event.

33 and Partly cloudy here.

12Z GFS post front snow is still quite extensive for much of PA. 3-6" Kuch in the LSV except far southeast parts. If anything like that happened, rare but occasionally does from what others have said, that would be a big story for this Friday...with ice/frozen roads under the snow.

Welcome, that is quite the extensive line of experience. My daughter lives in the LV so I personally keep a close eye on the weather there.

It is getting almost common place to have gusts well into the 50's. Speaking of damage caused by weather, the ice storm last week caused fairly extensive tree damage and downed trees in the South Mountain area.

I swear it is windier here now than the mid 2000's and back.

CTP seems to be doing a good job getting the word out early. Hopefully not many have to deal with power outages over Christmas.

With Lancaster being part of the area posters live, how has Blue Ball not been mentioned yet in respect to Atomics post? :-)

I personally do not mind the maps as much as the way they are presented sometimes. I think the words will, guarantee, is happening, etc....should be removed from the vernacular of someone posting model output. The 60 hour Nam is just as valuable as the 120 hour GFS and that applies to any model in either of those slots. I find it fun to see how and why models map out a situation which is really the tracking aspect of it. If someone like flatheaded posts a map, it is just as valuable and valid as any red tagger IMO. For those that forecast in any capacity, the tracking probably has to take a back seat to much more grounded knowledge of model biases.

We had a really bad one back in winter 2004/2005. Closed several roads for a few hours. I was on 83 coming north out of MD and the police blocked the road around the Shrewsbury/Stewtown exit.