Bubbler86

I just think both "sets of data" (ops and ensembles) have their place and are both valuable 3, 5, 7, 10 days out and like you said, not much has changed since yesterday with lots to be resolved. The scenario that gives us a Hec's is truly a hope and pray timing scenario that could have ensembles and op's showing 2 feet until 24 hours before and it still fail to produce. And on a somewhat personal note, I still have some thought that a Hec's the day or two before Christmas will cause a lot of families to miss their loved ones for the holiday so if it happens, it happens...not going to wish against it, but if a frontal passage of 2-4" happens then it is White Christmas and still family time, not going to fret and feel bad. Good to have something to track though

Yesterday the op's were not good enough and we should lean on ensembles....today one or two op's show rain and there is a run on the bank (no offense to anyone just, a general sense). Has much really changed over the last 24 hours?

Jb is as wrong (or right) as anyone else who tries to guess weather a week away. But yea lots of runs to go.

The roller coaster of weather. Probably some hills left to traverse.

Truth.

Joe Calhoun says he is leaning towards a snowy Friday next week. And they really got a lot of snow at CTP. Looks like several inches on the videos I just saw. No nooners today? Maybe I missed. High was a balmy 47 here. 48/49 at CXY.

Do not think the new GFS looks like the Euro or CMC. Pretty much expected so good call Trainer. Small difference in trough position. This is still a CNN level Super Storm on Christmas "weekend"

Congrats gang. LOL. GFS.

Similar through 138...(actually the High is " missing" as we get into the 140's)

If Blizz does not show, you may need to PBP unless someone else gets it. LOL. We do need to get with Blizz's company and make them understand what winter is and what it means to this group and Blizz being around. MA LR thread rippling JB a new one.

Stuff like that (the twitter mets) was what I was complaining about a couple weeks ago. They raise expectation to frequently unsustainable levels.

Yes, that part is very unfortunate. Would cancel Christmas for many people.

Whoa! We are getting a Royalty PBPer today! Love it.

GFS has that low near Miami and Cuba again. Not sure what the tellies have to say about Low's in Cuba.

Quite the ensemble of Op PBP's there.

I only have it to 108.

The NWS/Accuweather info part was surprising. I had not heard that before. They were about to limit us to having the Icon, Euro and JMA only. LOL. Would have been goodbye Nam, GFS, HRRR, etc.

Interesting info on Wiki. Joel Myers is still the CEO. Criticisms[edit] Long-term forecasting practices[edit] In April 2012, AccuWeather drastically shortened the range of their publicly available historical data from 15 years to 1 year. They also began increasing the range of their forecast from 15 days to 25 days, 45 days, and (by 2016) to 90 days. These hyper-extended forecasts have been compared to actual results several times and shown to be misleading, inaccurate, and sometimes less accurate than simple predictions based on National Weather Service averages over a 30-year period.[25][26] It is generally accepted that the upper limit on how far one can reliably forecast is between one and two weeks, a limit based on both limits in observation systems and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.[25][27][28] An informal assessment conducted by Jason Samenow at The Washington Post asserted that AccuWeather's forecasts at the 25-day range were often wrong by as many as ten degrees Fahrenheit, no better than random chance and that the forecasts missed half of the fourteen days of rain that had occurred during the month of the assessment.[29] AccuWeather responds that it does not claim absolute precision in such extremely long forecasts and advises users to only use the forecast to observe general trends in the forecast period,[30] but this contrasts with the way the forecasts are presented.[31] An assessment from the Post determined that the 45-day forecasts were not even able to predict trends accurately, and that, although the forecasts did not decrease in accuracy with time, the forecasts were so far off even in the short range as to be useless.[31] The Post commissioned another assessment from Penn State University professor Jon Nese, comparing several more cities to Accuweather's predictions; that assessment, while acknowledged as being limited to a single season, acknowledged that AccuWeather's forecasts were of value in short-range forecasting while also noting that their long-range forecasts beyond one week were less accurate than climatological averages.[26] National Weather Service[edit] The National Weather Service, which provides large amounts of the data that AccuWeather repackages and sells for profit, also provides that same information for free by placing it in the public domain. On April 14, 2005, U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) introduced the "National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005" in the U.S. Senate. The legislation would have forbidden the National Weather Service from providing any such information directly to the public, and the legislation was generally interpreted as an attempt by AccuWeather to profit off of taxpayer-funded weather research by forcing its delivery through private channels. AccuWeather denies this and maintains it never intended to keep weather information out of the hands of the general public.[32] The bill did not come up for a vote. Santorum received campaign contributions from AccuWeather's president, Joel Myers.[33] On October 12, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated AccuWeather CEO Barry Lee Myers, the younger brother of the company's founder, to head the National Weather Service's parent administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was noted that unlike 11 of the previous 12 NOAA administrators, Myers lacks an advanced scientific degree, instead holding bachelor's and master's degrees in business and law.[34] Barry Myers stepped down as CEO of AccuWeather on January 1, 2019, and completely divested himself of any ownership of AccuWeather in accordance with his pledge to the Office of Government Ethics and the U.S. Senate. After two years of inaction on the nomination, Myers withdrew his consideration for nomination on November 12, 2019, due to ill health,[35] though allegations of a hostile workplace and pervasive sexual harassment while Myers was at AccuWeather are rumored to have stalled it.[36][37] Myers sent a letter to The Washington Post in 2019 to address these allegations.

I had not seen much damage here but that is pretty significant. Sorry you have to deal with that.

I was not sure if they still had met's on places like KYW in Philly. They could probably pay some people here to clean up the model output and put together a personalized forecast for this area.

Why do you think that is? In my single opinion, they have converted to automated and impersonal forecasting as what we all hear. We have less of Elliott Abrams and more of model output.

Is that one of your places/buildings?

In Florida some turn on sprinklers and cover the oranges with ice to try and keep them at a constant 32 degrees with the heat release from the freezing and melting, but some growers call that theory a "myth" in that it does not help as much as other methods.

So did a lot of orange growers early in Florida's history. Between Ocala and Orlando there are a lot of old orange groves turned into housing because the farmers kept taking hits/losses. It is a pretty interesting history of how it all played out.

We ended up just under 2" here. A mild 40 right now. Central MD got all the rain they could possibly want. The run of the Euro that showed the Hecs/Mecs was right on precip totals just not temps. Radar estimated qpf totals.