Bubbler86

Yea, last winter.....in the 50's. LOL. The hot house this week, Lancaster, is already in the mid 50's.

@Mount Joy Snowman MDT is .6 AN right now for the month and I suspect that goes up the next 1-2 days especially with a current standing low of 46 for the day...will they end Nov AN, BN or within .1 of either side of the line?

Agreed. The amount of mod-hvy qpf was something I have not seen since last winter or early spring. Hopefully a good sign.

We ended up very close to 2 1/2" here. Will push to avoid this being the driest year ever. GFS is totally dry over its entire run though (LSV.)

I do not record when the grass goes "dull" in winter but does seem later this year. I had a temp of 23 as a low for the fall. Looking at the GFS I have a shot in the last 8 days of fall to beat that 23.

If I were the snow mow type I could definitely mow as it is high enough, but I like to let it sit at 2-3" through the winter. Grass is very green despite the frosts.

That was higher than some stations down here. Quite a jump up there. Mesos have backed off highs the next two days to low to mid 50's LSV/Low 50's MSV today and upper 40's to low 50's LSV/mid to upper 40's MSV tomorrow. Some Meso's were pushing 60 in the LSV today as of yesterday.

No doubt, finally a break for the water bill. 44 here this AM. MDT feel just short of 50 yesterday at 49. LNS was leading the way all day and spiked to 53 last evening with some WU temps nearing upper 50's at 56. Did not check Williamsport's but the 50's were not supposed to invade that far.

Could have made the same song for every winter month last season.

1.9" so going to make a run for 2.5" as the final line of heavy rain approaches.

Up to 1.6" here.

The temp rose faster than nanny's libido.

Just hit 1" and it is coming down fast.

Mesos still have low to mid 50's 7 or 8ish to midnight. Will see how that works out. They have low 40's right now which is pretty spot on here and LNS sitting at 43 right now. The Harrisburg stations are lagging 2-3 degrees.

Yep. Midnight high coming up maybe,

Late nooners. Steady rain for several hours now. About .4" and 40 degrees.

Most meso's have the LSV punching into the 50's this evening so decent chance MDT is AN at least 2 of the next 3 days if models are to be believed. MDT needs to make it to 54 today to come in normal. The warmer lows Wed and Thur may make it easier to get AN those days.

My house between Pen Mar and High Rock is about 1 1/4" for the year. Trace here in Rou. No accums on the roads though.

36 this Am. Had some rain or snow earlier that slightly got the pavement wet and some random rain drips falling now.

Totally understand. The safe bet is to error on the side of brown yards. If anything, I was more suggesting any snow shown on ensembles is questionable if it was there because two members showed it and the rest did not, but the average was pulled up by the 2. So, I concur! LOL

Not at all saying your sleuthing was wrong, really agreeing with you in that someone else saw it.

I know of one other person who told me they wondered the same thing. Posting styles are a bit different though.

Eb Nooners... Mostly Sunny and 45. Feels chilly.

The frustrating side of following ensembles for specific weather in my opinion. Good for verification of Op's and large-scale atmospheric forecasts but for slp's and day to day reality, they can jump around just like the op's since they are essentially a group of op's (sometimes lower resolution) running the same data but with slight deviations to try and capture all the different possibilities. For specific details, I think one has to look at each member of an ensemble and see if the LR forecasts are similar as just looking at the resulting average map does not give us any idea of how much variability there was among the members.