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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think the unwritten rule is that no 10-1 maps are allowed before Nov 15, but you can Kuch to your heart's desire! Haha. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sorry, I should have included the wind. The first thing to note is that the wind was basically negligible. Several readings were 0 and most others were 3. Second, the wind went from N to SE then to S during the up and down period. Looking at the highlighted previous winds showed similar gyrations without wild temp jumps. In fact, it appears to me that the N designation was default for no wind. Every N was actually 0. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well, I present this again. Someone could argue that a wind change caused this but that is a reason they are not a good spot to represent the area as a whole. For about 2 1/2 hours they fluctuated between 72 and 75 which is certainly understandable...they then jumped from 74/75 to 78 (says 79 but was really 78) then back to 73, all in a 10 min period. How does a professional therm drop 5 degrees in 5 min with no front passage? -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Probably a good call. Mesos say 80 but they have been a few degrees too cool recently. Not so confident now on MDT breaking their daily high record with their abnormal readings the last few days...assumption being the river skewing reality. They only ended up at 72 yesterday with all the other NWS sites near them were 77-78 expect MUI which was 2 higher at 74. MDT coming in cooler than MUI with similar wind and sky conditions is more than questionable. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Get out and enjoy the day. LOL. How high can CXY get? 85? over? -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That is fair with how far North you are. Down my way we could be looking at 55 or 75+. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
A "Luda" 60 at 4:45AM. MDT made it to 58 or 59 at some point avoiding the Max low record. Almost all models that showed a BN Sunday continue to "leak" a bit with warmth getting farther and farther north. Before it ranged from the upper 40's to the mid 70's between suites but now it looks more like upper 50's to mid 70's for the LSV for most suites. Only truly well BN suite I see left is Fv3. Even the Nam is out of the BN camp now. Hopefully it will soon be time for the cold to take over. Certainly, looks quite chilly for 4-6 days through next week. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like LNS and THV bagged themselves a 77 or 78 and CXY a 78 or 79. MDT is silly right now. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Are you down there right now or just using the web cam? -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Good job by the HRRR. Most NWS stations south of MDT are up in to or on the cusp of the upper 70's now. MDT is in their own world like yesterday. Seemed ublikjely with the slow starts and rain earlier. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12Z EC leans toward Mu's thoughts but real close Sun and Mon. The difference between 50's and 70's is one county on Mon. 75 here right now. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We have had our Phil of drought map colors this summer. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Another kick in the groin for far south PA precip deficits. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Would be a significant factor in what the monthly means end at if MDT spends two days in the 50's vs. the 70's for highs. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Still major differences at 12Z for Sun and Mon. GFS keeps the slp going south of us as the primary low for this weekend while the Icon and CMC keep the primary farther west and keep most of the LSV and near in the much An area. Nam sides with its American cousin while RGEM sides with big daddy. 20-25 degree different in solutions. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The HRRR could be off its rocker, but it still says upper 70's today for most of the LSV when the clouds part. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We are watering full time again as well (plants). I am letting the grass slide a bit as we have had some dew. Both of us are still in D0 on the latest drought map. Basically the entire southern LSV through Lanco and Chester. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
More clouds than not and 71 near noon. Seems cooler to the east. The HRRR jumps LSV temps 10-15 degrees over the next 4 hours. MDT reporting rain right now. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Quite the battle for Sunday on the Progs as to it being in the 50's or much warmer. GFS and CMC both stay mostly BN through their entire run after this heat wave ends whether it be Sun or Tue. GFS even has some wet snow for parts of PA in 10 days. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
57 for the low. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You need to get more river to keep the temps in check. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Mdt checked in at 78 today...one degree short of tying the record. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Technically they may have scored a record tie, we will see in about 90 min. -
Central PA Autumn 2023
Bubbler86 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
LOL!!