Bubbler86

I think the only people cancelling January are in the MA thread and not many at that. But the OP GFS was not good regardless.

It was not below freezing before the event and there is no below freezing temps anywhere near the area except way above the ground, so it is not a good setup outside rate induced cooling which is not optimal.

Not a good GFS run....after some snow TV on Jan 7th we are left with this. A stark contract to some runs last week which showed real cold invading the US by the time of this map.

He is a "bit of a pessimist" though. LOL.

Still not much in the way of modeled cold air to our north (in early Jan) has caused the lunch menu to be an extra-large melt. IMO, still way too early to count out anything after the first few days of the month.

Just a little bit in my lower area of the mountain. Hard to see up very far though as more low clouds and fog higher. I see they extended the fog adv to parts of the LSV.

Rgem and Nam 3K ramping up totals a bit for tomorrow....over 2" in many central and Eastern PA areas now. HRRR still nowhere near that and Nam12 focused the heavier rains in N Central PA with 1-2" still in Central and Southeastern PA.

T of rain overnight and 40.

I think others have chimed in before, but their zones are sometimes automated I believe.

Their AFD sounds quite a bit different than the zones. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large scale negative tilt upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley this Christmas afternoon will bring widespread showers to the area later tonight into into Wed. The chance of rain will taper off on Thursday. While some areas may see over an inch, the system is not as intense as the one the other week, and the rain will be spread over several days, so not expecting to see flooding at this point. The last system had a warm core and very intense warm advection.

Strictly speaking models, that seems quite high. Some progs have you getting under 1'. Others are 1-2'.

High of 54 here today.

Pittsburgh Special for that last vort on the 6Z GFS. Op and ensembles keep insisting we will have something.

Merry Christmas. 42 7:00Am Nooners.

Probably too early to worry. Seems like a strong possibility a good of the first half of Jan will be colder.

I have been kind of hinting as such (not cold enough for snow for the first 1-4 days of the month outside sloppy snow) too though it did have a run or two where the cold was in earlier. Does not seem to be much on the GEFS ensemble mean to debate the GFS as to highs below freezing for the first few days of Jan. Highs near 35-40 on the mean. Colder after the 5th.

You too and enjoy hashing out model output anytime with you as long as we both are allowed to have valid opinions! That disclaimer was for people who trash the Op like it is not a valid model to discuss. I am certainly not going to spend the time to parse every member of the Low Res Gefs panel.

6Z GFS keeps trying to expand that last vort but having troubles making it any more than a nuisance snow right now as the wave is delayed and misses the chance to work with a departing trough. One major plus is the cold in place that gets entrenched to start the second week of Jan. Still think the lack of sufficient cold to our north limits things the first week of Jan. Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting. If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it. Appreciate it!

After one of the colder, wintery feeling weeks in recent times, it is an even 40 here this AM. Santa pulling the heat with him.

Re desk jockey-In many cases, the best model PBPing is done on someone else's dime.

@Mount Joy Snowman, MDT is locked in for an AN month....will it be >< 2.5 AN? Time to put down the nog and scratch out some math. :-)

There have been lots of grievances aired here the last 2-3 days.

Everyone is choking on their hot toddy's because Steel scored 34 points. PS-18Z GFS....at least we are still in the game.