Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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It was not the only one that nam was king but I am not even sure the nam nailed it. Maybe it did....I stayed up all night watching the miracle happen but 24 years has worn away at the what I used to know. Might have to do some review. This whole topic and mitchnick's comment about the new euro. If someone unknowledagble about models asked me to tell them which on was really "King" I would have a hard time picking any of them. They all struggle at times.
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It was 24 years ago but do you remember being surprised that a bombing low, which was was supposed to escape, came knocking at your beach?
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Does anyone remember what the euro was showing for the Jan 2000 surprise snow? Almost nothing showed what happened but different suites were different levels of wrong. I was heavily involved in tracking it (Mitchnick probably was as well) but I truly do not remember euro watching with it.
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That is what the nams are good at from history of these marginal situations. It took them until the last minute though. They were doing their namming's last night. Lol. I was very surprised by all the sleet and glad the nws said as such too. Makes me think even more was modeled incorrectly. I may be off in saying this but how often do we get a properly modeled snowstorm anymore? For me, the mystery keeps me engaged some. What did they mess up this time?
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I did not mean to sound negative vs. Inquisative on finding value from an ensemble so close to game time but yea the euro op must have underestimated the warm push. If that rain we got (or sleet) had been snow then this map may be under done.
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I just do not know how you can use an ensemble mean to forecast snow. It is almost always going to be wrong imo. Low resolution models all being fed alternate data.
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The whole group of western Lsv or near people all ended up within less than 1/2" of each other.
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Raining in Allentown now.
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I just love the active southern stream. Kind of ignoring specifics outside this once coming in 3 days which is a damage threat I think.
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Cash is your person
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PA should remove them from the Ballot for NWS Station of the year. Go Steel!
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I want the work out. The Y cost a grand a year, this was free.
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LOTS of snow chances on the 18Z GFS.
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I agree that if they go final at 2", that is too low. I do not think they got 5-6" though as my family in Etters only ended up between 3-4". They had a ton of mixing.
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2.5 hours to shovel 1/8" of a mile. The good was that the snow stuck to my shovel, bad it was super heavy. By the end it felt like this as we are coming up on 1/3" of rain on top of almost 6" of snow.
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We have had a quarter inch of rain since it changed. Shovelling is brutal. Rgem had the right idea on Qpf but it's thermals blew (when it was showing 1-2 feet)
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It is raining and sleeting up into Mt Holly now so may be close.
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Route 81 just south of M/D near HGR.
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It is pouring rain here. Rn+. 30 degrees. Measurements are done. 5.8"
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I get probably 2-3 dozen a year over here.
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Temps could breach 60 as well...not to add to the bad but a not normal winter day.
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I made a quick measurement, and we got over 1" in the last 30 min. 5.75 now and with compaction to boot.
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Mixing out here right now. Lot of rain in with the snow.
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I am waiting it out. Do not think we see much rain here but the snow is so hard right now it would end up soaking me down to shovel.
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HRRR has mixing way up there in a couple hours so may be dicey. Further East, the worst the mixing on the HRRR.
