Bubbler86

Yea, freezing drizzle may have been better term. But there is almost no snow on the ground down there. Rou is all snow

All freezing rain in Waynesboro

Bad drivers out

Roads caved in c-burg. About a quarter inch.

Going to need rates eventually....to hold the mix line back.

A few flakes in Chambersburg. 31

I am out and some pretty extreme temp deviations. 33-35 in the valley/waynesboro and Quincy....down to 27 in Fayetteville just slightly north. I see we got anti-nammed.

Different reasons in winter. If we get a low coming out of the gulf that is always to my East, Rou will be one of the higher totals on here....but those south or southwest winds invade between the two mountain chains here. Mountain living on the wrong side for app runners.

They get paid to do what we do.

Virga over State College and Carlisle right now. May start to moisten it out a bit for them. Going to have to work hard at first here. 28 temps and DP dropped down to 20.

6Z 3k still one of the higher totals as it keeps it snow much longer in questionable areas (although only about 3" here.)

28/22 here. Rgem is now one of the lower runs I just saw in running through stuff as it pushes rain up near the Poconos. More snow in Lanco than Central PA. Kind of weird. Here is the latest HRRR which has getting into the MSV but stiff nice Kuch totals. Most models have it changing pretty quick over here now. I might go out and shovel when the changeover occurs just to get a shovel in. GFS upped totals a bit in areas that do not change quickly. Also, GFS showing a lot of freezing rain which is also weird with these thermals.

Yea, pretty low DP's right now. Mine rose 2-3 degrees but was pretty low to start.

Here is the Skew-T for the rain period I showed...and it is rain because of a decent area of the column including the 850's failing. Case can be made it is too close to make that call and intensity could overcome.

I actually do not have any numbers other than intuition that WB maps are inflated a bit with snow but that is not the issue here, the GFS is a rainstorm for a good bit of the southern LSV on Pivotal so it is not accums vs. fairly large difference in ground truth. I guess it goes to show the tenuous day ahead for tracking tomorrow.

Guessing Wb does not have a panel like this then. I cannot say who is right as to the precip algorithms.

The pivotal map is MUCH lower than this in the areas that turned to rain. Some totals are 60-70% lower. I am not going to post it because it is bad.

GFS is not a good map to show. Throw it out.

GFS focuses on the southern SLP as primary a bit earlier this run. Edit-but still changes much of the LSV over to rain or mix. I know, global on short term....

Lots of low 20's temps throughout the LSV. A cold one. Near 20 in North Central Lanco as they prepare their defenses for the Heat Miser south wind.

22/19 here. DP up quite a bit. Pretty consistent 18-23 DP across most stations in the LSV.

It is all relative. Rgem lost 3-5 inches for much of the LSV (from the runs at 6Z) but basically meshing with the other models now. Still looks good I think. Rgem was too high. FV3 gained 3" in some areas it was too low in.

You might owe them snow by tomorrow am.

3k looked much better than the papa on my small phone view. I think the 12 took me down to 2 or 3"