To the surprise of many (not really) the late MR and LR Op GFS is drastically different than the run earlier today. Does not mean either are right but what was an almost negatively tilted trough off the east coast on Feb 6 is now a ridge poking down from Canada.
GFS closer than the ICON. A rare SE moving coastal (or several areas of lowest pressure) after this panel. The coastal is forming as the clipper arrives so grab your Millers and drink up.
Still not there or really even close but this was the time period that I thought the 28th low could set us up for. Somewhat cold air would be in place. Have energy in both streams...500 just not good enough yet.
I was going to question TCC's comment, but it brings back the old thought from earlier this year...what is warm and what is cold. Both sides have merits. To me, 40-45 is not warm any time of the year but it is AN.
We have some piles as well, but it is not raw. I just checked WU and, in our case, there is an inversion going on as the higher temps are just elevations but in York and Lanco the higher temps are coming up from the south in valleys as well.