
frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Inflation is increasing !
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I wish for severe cold next winter. What a depressing winter it was here. Cold could never penetrate East. How about all the snow maps with at times 30 inches or more snow depicted. What a joke Para was and even EPS did poorly. Only psu got his snow. The - NAO cycle may be starting, but as you know impossible to tell. No need to even worry about what next winter will bring, until at least November. I would expect the same typical pattern warm September, warm October and then the sudden flip to colder. Looking at the Atlantic I am glad I had several trees removed. Looks like a warm Atlantic already. Once we get away from West winds the next few days and well below average air temps I look for a quick warm up for the surf zone. The SW Atlantic is above normal at this time.
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Soil moisture levels in this region must be off the charts, still ponding on roads and fields after the last event. Incredible.
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Another 1 inch plus event , seems anything less than an inch is rare these days, that counts Winter and summer, spring and fall. Sucks ! When you are driving around look at your lawns and and woods and see the new establishment of evasive weeds and rough house blue grass, taking over golf courses and manicured lawns. Very interesting. Onion grass also making a comeback as top soils erode and the moisture and feedback cycle supports these new weeds and grasses.
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Mount Holly - " Rogue - severe caliber gusts " Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package.
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I feel this is the same old crap from last spring and summer ....rain, and more rain. Never just showers. What was suppose to be showers has ened up with flash flooding here. Nasty day with the weeds already growing. I actually prefer a drought. If this were a snowstorm would underperform, of course since it is rain, its a flood, par for the course.
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Hey, @Weather Will I was looking forward to snow today, but it was actaully nice outside. I mean it was 27 degrees this morning, so that counts for something I guess.
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Why would you have thought March would be better ? Nothing really showed that two weeks ago. Pac sucks. PNA , AO and NAO not playing nice. Shorter wave lenghts was the only hope, but in a winter such as this past one, persistent failure would always be the most likely outcome. Good bye stupid Para snowfall maps, hello sunshine. Was another frustrasting winter in these parts. I still hear from the plow guys, soon to be grass cutters, that snowfall predictions were always 1/4 of what was forecasted.
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Pretty sure if the Para couldn't deliver us the digital snow in Jan and Feb in a extremely blocked pattern, then for sure it will be wrong for about the 40th time this winter with that depiction you posted. All I can say is I love winter storms, but for now, Good bye winter ! Hello Spring ! Looking forward to rain free weather and temps near 70 degrees next week. My emotional state has already improved. Planning my landscaping now, and enjoying the sun and outdoors.
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Might get out today and do some yard work. Had several large trees removed and stumps grounded. CAPE can you recommend what to do with the grindings? I am thinking I can use them in the back of my property for natural mulch as they hopefully break down over time, I do not want to use them right next to the house because I read there can be termite issues. Have to research that more. Thanks And wow, it looks great next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And finally some drying.
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It surely does. Has been a huge factor for a long time. I move on to next winter and see what the Pac has to offer. I don't care about the AO or the NAO all I want is a frigid Canada and then a great Pac. IMHO Going to take miracles for us to get decent snowstorms in the future.
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The post SSWE secondary dive in the AO is not in the cards this March . at least so far. Actually going way up.
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Excellent. All we need now is a drying trend. The last 18 months has been too wet. I request normal temps and less high rainfall events. Huge failure for digital snowfall this month. ⁷ What a waste of output from the EPS and the GEFS regarding snowfall potential. Should ban the Euro control and the Para.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
frd replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Mine as well get another 26 mile on the ground tornado. -
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
frd replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
What could have been. Been a crap winter as usual in the low lands. -
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
frd replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
PARA verifies as much as the Euro Control. -
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
frd replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes , or No , same outcome here. I can really appreciate your frustration this year. -
Snowing here and 32 degrees. Coating on the ground, imagine that !
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The reality of your snow fear index, aka the NAM, has worked out rather well this season. Went to the Food Lion yesterday for a few things and when the cashier and I spoke about the impending weather she said its all hype. She said with great confidence , there going to be wrong again, and she was correct. Without computers, without soundings, without met knowledge and using only persistence she beat the forecasters. Thats funny. I was despaired the last three winters because the base state prevented any threats. Now my fear is the ability and ROI on tracking in the long and short range. The majority of this winter, with it's record - NAO, record - AO, etc., modeling did poorly, 3 out of 4 winter storm warnings in my area never achieved the criteria , more or less. Yes, weather forecasting is humbling and challenging. But, this winter has been a emotional rollercoaster of mostly despair and huge let downs.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
frd replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes it did, some areas much more. I can't tell you when the PARA has scored a win. As for the EPS. it has not done well with snow totals in the short range, and in the medium range, heck, even it's precip totals have been off. -
Transition to sleet here with some snow mixing in. Starting to whiten the lawn. Looking at the radar, hopefully go to more snow shortly if rates pick up.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
frd replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The PARA is useless, that goes along with all the snowfall maps beyond 1 minute in the future. PARA always too snowy. Correct .0001 % of the time. As for future chances, we couldn't even score a snow event when the entire country is in the deep freeze. -
Enjoy ! I love the snow covered landscape.
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Imagine your rates , darker blues, banding, etc., and location is helping too , here is it meh. Many corporations in northern Delaware closed due to the winter storm warning. I doubt we see 4 to 6 inches of snowfall here. But, I will wait before declaring complete failure for 3 out of the 4 storms this season Oh, I shouldn't even use the word storms, implies something major, not.
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Another pathetic event , currently sleet and some freezing rain. No snow. All hail the NAM