frd

Euro is not the same model as years ago. And, ROI tracking snow events is going negative.

How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ? I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range.

From Walt Drag this AM. Posted 33 minutes ago East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE.

EPS track would suggest a cold smoke event for inland areas , actually even coastal areas would cash in according to the EPS. But, it is early amd would like to see additional models jump onboard. However, the pattern does support a storm in this period, and the time frame after this as well.

I know you're longing at the opportunity to drive to the beach and view another coastal blizzard but I prefer not to. Let us hope things change slightly by the week of the 24th . There appears to be the possibility of a wave breaking event that could cause a transient negative NAO, if so, maybe the coast of plain can get some sort of a moderate all snow event .

Simply incredible

Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum, the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. from bluewave below: 'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February."

Still looking forward to what may, or may not happen, late month after this recent fiasco. Maybe @CAPE and I can score a moderate hit and have it stick around a while. I settle for a ground blizzard.

For the Coastal Plain still feel the highest threat for a SECS or greater is from Jan 20 th to the 29 th . This will also coincide with the possibilty of the coldest readings of the winter so far, especially if snow cover can be achieved.

The banana high pressure structure to the North totally collapses in a period of 24 hours. Dissapointing. As Bob Chill stated we were at 2 for 2 , but luck has to stop , so I think this one is going to be a loss for the coastal plain. Amazing too, how intense the cold is Sunday morning and then how quickly we warm up.

True, as psu stated, the more threats we experience the higher the odds are we will strike it rich with at least one flush hit. As for the STJ, yes that becomes more favorable. We are just entering the favorable pattern this weekend.

Regardless the final outcome, I enjoyed DT's last line the best. "And yes there is plenty more activity coming up after this event"

As Ji would say, a total disaster. Rain, I can't believe, a huge shift. Spacing and timing, we will see.

Sweet animation

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

ICON came way North

First time in many a year that I can recall cold and snow setting up shop for a long run in early to mid Jan. Normally it is time for the Jan thaw, not this year. Excellent !!!

For sure, lots of cold and active. Even Walt Drag is excited and the super long range modeling keeps extending the winter pattern. Awesome mean at 360 hours from the Euro and the latest CFSv2 has gone colder in early Feb.

Ah, a buffet of goodies possibly.

Interesting, but all options are on the table at this time for the Mid Atlantic Southward.

That is funny. I guess luck needs to be listed first in order of importance above a - AO , -NAO or a + PNA in the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully we get some great luck to go with our upcoming favorable pattern.

LOVE this animation posted by Griteater. Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead. s

Wow, gets tastier and tastier as time moves on. A very active pattern as John mentions.