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Brick wall over the Northern Tidewater. Strange storm evolutions.

Finally some action, and a near- by severe thunderstorm warning. C and D Canal area gettng very heavy rains in a interesting West to East elongated radar signature, as in training cells. Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 650 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 DEC003-NJC015-033-100200- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0061.210709T2250Z-210710T0200Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Gloucester NJ-Salem NJ- 650 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Advisory for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... West Central Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Salem County in southern New Jersey... * Until 1000 PM EDT. * At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly across portions of the advised area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain can be expected. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Salem, Woodstown, Alloway, and Quinton.

Yes I am near the c&d canal I missed the majority of the action below Dover

It certainly has it's share of victories over other models.

Does rain make it back this way?

Yes, I can relate to that. Even with premier fescue its hard to battle against the long days and sun angle at this time of year. Another issue is the depth of my top soil and the front is sloped so it is harder to keep it green, however, my back looks decent still. But, in 8 weeks I will re-seed with the climo shift, the shorter days becomes a plus not a negative. I have discovered recently after 20 years of re-seeding that you can re-seed in Sept if you are able to water, versus October, with the new end of October cold spell becoming almost predictable.

That would be a bummer. After 95 plus heat will need rain by then.

Target zero today, currently the 4 th thunderstorm of the day is underway. This current storm is the strongest so far, with 30 mph wind gusts and very heavy rains.

Last night was celebrating the surprise thunderstorm forming just to my West. Guess what, same thing, turned more North and missed me. Can't win in the rain department , just like the snow department recently. not sure if the C and D Canal causes a micro climate variable but very, very frustrating.

Not bad, up to the letter D. Not too shabby

WPC still bullish , if anything the coverage looks even larger.

WPC trending wetter

Nice update, and only matter oif time before those SSTs off the DE. and NJ coast really spike upwards. Western Gulf is crazy warm . !

There is activity on the radar in that area. Of course so far it has screwed me. Missing to the North and the South. However more rogue cells developing so maybe there is still a chance. Dewey might get a storm soon as a broken line moves towards the lower DE beaches

Wow ! No escape from the heat.

That set-up with higher heights further North and East looks like last summer's theme, if i remember correctly. May not be super hot, but the night's elevated lows will have it appear more nasty, and soupy.

Drier trends from the WPC in the 6 to 7 day window. Meanwhile expect a continued faster than normal rise in the surf zone temps next week .

A bit dated but still interesting

@CAPE that is part of the answer. The timing of prunning the old wood is critical. But sunlight and phosphorous also are important. I am dropping some triple phosphate prior to the rains tomorrow around my hydrangeas and crate mrytle around the drip line. Here is another tip using coffee to change colors Coffee grounds turn soil more acidic, helping hydrangea blossoms turn blue rather than the typical pink or white. The acidity of the grounds provides the key element, though aluminum sulfate or eggshells also produce the same effect. . The primary nutrient for bloom production is phosphorous. ... If hydrangeas do not get enough sunlight, they will not produce blooms. The foliage will be healthy and beautiful but the blooms won't appear

Not liking the trends for East of 95 in my region. 7 day precip totals going down. Not surprised after two seperate busts last week, especially Saturday's failure. Atlantic SSTs reinforce the idea of an expansive and growing WAR in time.

That cooler airmass will be after the possible remains of the tropical system. Interesting wording in the long-term AFD this evening regarding the next week's rain potential. May end up being two seperate events versus just one.

Nice summary here from MH AFD : The best chance for severe weather will come this evening into the overnight period, as upstream convection developing in the vicinity of the surface cold front congeals and progresses towards our area. The latest CAMS largely depict one or more linear convective features moving towards the area overnight and this evolution seems reasonable given the strong mid-lvl flow and associated shear (500mb winds, and 0-6km shear will be in the 90-95th percentile for mid June) which should help support convective organization and maintenance. Although we may see a shallow nocturnal surface inversion form, reasonably steep lapse rates above this shallow layer should support wind gusts reaching the surface in any well- organized convection. SPC highlights this potential for damaging winds by placing the majority of our area in a slight risk for severe weather today (mostly for the evening-overnight period). Given the fast propagation of the system, convective mode, and strong flow aloft. damaging winds look to be the primary threat although small hail will also be possible. The tornado threat will be limited by the weak low-lvl wind fields (the wind field is very "mid-lvl heavy" in this event). Heavy rain is certainly a concern with any stronger convection with some signal for 1-2+ inch an hour rates, however suspect that the quick system motion will make the hydro threat secondary to the wind threat. The main forecast uncertainties are both the timing of the latter round of convection, and also its spatial coverage. For example, the latest CAMS have a spread of nearly 4 hours in timing the QLCS passage which is not particularly surprising given that the quick system motion, combined with the potential for convectively-driven propagation effects related to cold pools are a recipe for timing discrepancies. Additionally the timing situation is further complicated by the fact that several CAMS depict separate northern and southern linear segments developing, while other CAMS show only a more consolidated southern segment impacting our area. Generally suspect that the most likely period for a potential QLCS would be 02- 08Z with the best chance of severe winds being roughly TTN southward, however if the northern segment is able to get going the risk could both extend further northward and also begin earlier.

My cucumbers are growing rapidly too. The secret is to control the vine burrowers so that by the time the tomatoes are ripe the cucumbers are still around. Did an above ground garden this year and so far things look good and drainage is much, much better.