frd

WPC very bullish on Eastern Seaboard rainfall potential, then a massive shoft West of the WAR combining with the Western US high Pressure system. Looks very hot and tropical down the road. Also, a noticeably rise in western Atlantic SSTs this morning, and looking for that to continue. Would imagine 80 degree F SST in the surf zone later in July.

Overnight WPC thoughts on rainfall.

Interesting AFD by Mount Holly this morning. It appears the areas for heaviest rainfall is dependent on where the front may stall or slow. Including threat of a Maddox heavy rain event. Lastest guideance has broken the trend and has the front stall further West , so the heaviest rain is to the West. Here is the AFD: Details: Friday into Saturday...Remnant low of Beryl should be well north and weakening/filling by the day time on Friday. However, the previously mentioned cold front will be stalling near or over our region. In the mid and upper levels, a trailing trough will be approaching our region in this period. The biggest concern I have with this period of the forecast is the potential for heavy rain. Not only will precipitable water values remain high (as there will be minimal dry air advection between Thursday and Friday), but this set up has many similarities to a Maddox Synoptic heavy rain event. The front should be stationary (or very slow moving), it has a favored orientation for these types of events, and the winds from 700 to 300 mb should be nearly parallel to the front. This could set the stage for training storms capable of heavy downpours. The main question remaining in terms of the threat specifically to our region is how close the front will get before stalling. Some of the latest deterministic guidance shows it stalling further west, limiting the risk in our region. However, this is a relatively new trend over the past few model runs, and there remains some models depicting the front stalling over our region. Saturday night into Sunday...Front should dissipate, and flow aloft should become mostly zonal. While I can`t rule out some additional storm development, by this point it is unlikely we will see widespread thunderstorm coverage. Another mid an upper level trough could approach as early as late Sunday, but confidence in the timing of that feature is low at this time.

Meanwhile the Atlantic continues to cook.

Excellent early morning dog walking weather. Almost chilly.

Thats sounds like typical West winds or offshore upwelling. Crazy days are possible there.

Have you been to the beaches recently? I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days. Maybe upwelling?

Yep, this caught my eye " We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. " Never posted this, but the last rain event produced training cells delivering 2.55 inches of rain and the night before 1.52 inches. This was preceded by a dew point of 79 here. The atmosphere will once again be primed on Saturday to deliver big rainfall totals. I hope this time more folks in our forum are able to get significant rainfall.

GFS trending North to Texas.

Looks like a Cat 5 right now.

Speaking of lift, complex in South Central PA is now warned and moving towards Cecil county MD. and Northern DE. including me. PWATs are over 2 inches.

79 dew point is like maybe once a summer ? I hardly ever see that here as well. Tomato plants and eggplants are very happy in my garden. Be safe out there.

Dewpoint 79 here as well, incredible !!!!

Even so, without a great PAC decent winters in the east are over. - NAO has little impact in the winter in the East it seems the last 6 years.

Training storms here last. Not sure how much rain, but estimate over an inch.

Beryl is the strongest storm for this time of year to form so far East in the Atlantic. SSTs are boiling out there . Incredible warmth in the MDR and expanding North and NW every day.

Big jump in 7 day rainfall from the WPC.

Getting some pop up showers on the upper Eastern Shore moving NNE to NE up Route 896 . You can really feel the moisture in the air. Imagine beach is not so great in the water with the brisk winds, might cause rip currents.

Good, because the overnight WPC reduced rainfall in the region.

With cloud cover moving in temps decreased a bit down to 92 degrees here, with a dew point at 70. Heat index 98. Looking at the radar, I really hope things start getting more active to our West.

La Nina = Dewey Beach road trip.

If my data is correct, and I believe it is , upper level soil temp has already eclipsed all of 2023's summer months highs. Incredible !!!!

Nice breeze on the early AM walk with the dog.

Have to revisit this in July to determine feedback loops, soil moisture, changes in the pattern,etc. There is more moisture in the atmosphere and with the West Atlantic SSTs getting ready to take off will we will be at high rish from tropical systems.

Only Jun 20 th by that point. You think hottest summer ever here ?