I agree, good thoughts.
I know we are still dropping down in the solar cycle and not sure, as I have not checked , when we are suppose to hit the bottom and whether there is a lag effect.
I am sure the winter outlooks ( some ) will take this into this account and explore it in more detail. The QBO is fascinating of itself , and that will play a role as well.
I read that the El Nino is not going to be as robust and that some feel the Eastern regions are really going to warm up. I am not sure about that though. I read here on various forums that
Some members, in other regional boards, feel that this El Nino will be weak, and because of that it will lead to more Miller B's and less snow for the Mid Atlantic . Who knows for sure. On the opposite spectrum what if forcing in the Pac is Modakii iun nature you get a different look . And then you have what Ventrice talks about, which is the low frequency forcing . A lot to consider.