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I am surprised the waters West of Aussie are still so cold and I know some mets have spoken abou this, and how this might have some effect on the MJO phases this upcoming winter.   

Favoring certain phases over others.  

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just for the heck of it, I decided to look at a (random) h5 composite anomaly for November in a year that featured a Nino for the winter months, and AN snowfall. Looks like it was pretty mild.

 

 

A warm November may not be a bad thing at all. Most seasonal models have the best pattern in Jan to March timeframe, however, I be interested to see whether the PV weakening during mid November happens and from there what happens next.  Maybe for the first time ever , well almost ever, we get winter to lock in near Christmas this year. Even a warmish first half of December is not a death blow to the season as a whole. I still like the idea of a cold and hopefully snowy March .  

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not.

Don't expect much in December.

Ray, what are your thoughts,  if you are able to talk  about this prior to your seasonal outlook , as some here are stating the Modaki El Nino is a no go,  but instead we will have a hybrid El Nino . 

You agree and does it really matter? And. can not things still change in the weeks ahead. Also, there is the debate as well about the high frequency forcing still being West based in the winter regardless.  

As mentioned a couple days ago .......  a weakening PV is in the cards 

I know another variation of this was posted above but I like the chart here and looking ahead at the 31 st with the weather models it is possible after a brief Siberian warm up another bout of snow sweeps East and South and provides additional snow cover on the last two days of the month. So then you have a situation with a good ending with a rapid SAI and also a very good snowfall coverage in addition to snowfall advance. 

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup you were in the dry slot as well. Ended up with 15 here. The Dec 2009 storm was 20-21 here. 

All the discussion of QBO and AO/NAO has me reminiscing with these composites...man we had such legit, epic blocking that winter. Sad how its seems to be nearly extinct since then lol.

This is why some folks in the weather community are saying it is not wise to use 2009 as a analog to this year, because certain factors are missing in the area of blocking and the El Nino is not as strong.

HM alluded to this as well , as he mentioned you could back to late October 2009 and see that big time blocking was going to be likely in December 09.  

51 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

What caused that block to form ? Do you recall ?

Lately they have been very, very rare. 

I know sometimes SSWE related, wave breaking , retrograde from the East . I can not remember 

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It was not my fave, simply because of the nasty dryslot that robbed almost half the storm here lol.

 

Its hard to choose a number one, but I really loved this one. Probably because of how early it occurred. Just a super h5 look and what a storm for mid-late December.

This Dec 2009 storm was awesome in my area , measured 24 inches in several differant locations......the 2016 Blizzard that killed Baltimore and nearby areas here only dropped I think 14 to 16 inches - I believe dry slot was the cause as you stated 

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I don't have a clue, other than to expect a +NAO most of the time and be shocked otherwise lol. I know we are at/approaching a solar min, and the QBO is negative, but last month it took a big jump towards neutral, implying we are headed towards positive territory during winter. That is not a good sign for a developing -NAO from everything I have read. Although looking at the numbers, it seems a +NAO predominates regardless of the QBO phase/trend much of the time. So I am not sure if there is even a decent correlation there.

I thought DT stated once that as the QBOlong as it is close to + or - 15 is was fine, but I have to dig up his research . 

I agree though,  Easterly I thought was better . 

Maybe some of the deal too is the Atlantic AMO, some saying it is going to a cold AMO , those SSTs up there are a bit chilly. 

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah but this has become pretty rare lately. My brother in central NC can attest to that. For us folks on the coastal pain especially, a stout west based -NAO is going to be a favorable attribute more times than not. We generally don't do well with northern/inland tracks and 'front end thumps'. As for cold and dry- it has much more to do with other factors than a NA block. If we are to accept this winter will be a weak/moderate Nino, an active STJ should not be a problem. All signs point to a favorable E/NPAC atm. The AO/NAO phase remains an unknown at this point. It seems the best guess is the AO will be neutral to slightly negative. NAO is much more difficult to predict at long leads.

Yeah, all true.  I am waiting for the day when a breakthrough will be made that can foresee the dominant NAO phase for the season ahead.  I believe last year Isotherm did well with that , I have not heard from him posting recently.  

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its rarely a binary deal in this area though. Hard to get a cold trough to lock in without at least some help in the NA- cold shots tend to be more transient, and storm tracks can be iffy, and require better timing. In general, I prefer to have a favorable NA.

We have had many times over the years a good a great NAO domain only to be left cold and dry. Or,  the storm track to our South . Or simply, a stormless backdrop. 

To clarify my previous post I mean I prefer a - EPO +PNA and hopes for the active STJ. 

I agree with you though,  you do need help here in NAO domain and the right combo of Pac and Atl can lead to our best snowfall events.  

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Totally agree. The LR guidance hints at moving in the direction of persistent higher heights in NA, and then backs off. When have we seen this before? But the Pacific side looks like it wants to be our really good friend. Very consistent signal on most guidance. If we get the lower heights camping out near the Aleutians with a EPO ridge and a +PNA, which is generally favored in a Nino, we should do ok. Might have to wait until the second half of winter for any sustained NA blocking. 

I rather have a great Pac than a good Atlantic side any day.  I love seeing the storms too and the active  STJ.  The table is being set.    

This is good indeed and I know last week HM alluded to the NH progression and the formation of the Ural  anticyclone. He posted as well on his Twitter feed he dislikes talk of the strat when it pertains to things that are what he calls trivial.  But, I still like to follow preconditions to the PV weakenings or displacements. I find it interesting nonetheless.  I always value HM's insights. I followed him back on Wright Weather on  AOL dialup back in the days :-)  

On a side note,  from Judah this AM:

In addition to my previous post, there is this from Ventrice, who stated this morning you do not need a recurving typhoon to effect the Northern  Pacific  jet interaction. 

You can still have a jet extension which, as he shows,  causes cyclogenesis and this travels along into the North Pac .  

Not sure the timing or whether it is related , but the over night Euo OP to shows a crazy and pretty powerful piece of energy  at 220.  Maybe this might spawn a powerful storm later .   

More evidence of a warmer November continues , as the typhoon in the West Pac looks to go West and not recurve as per the overnight EPS , a change from 24 hoursd ago. 

Also,  the weeklies from the JMA looks warmer as we progress through time. 

11 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This is way out there, but here's the first sign of November possibly heating up!

Looking at the trends in the guideance the last few days, even the last week of October is shaping up not to be as cold as was originally forecasted a week ago.  

I think the cold shifts West in November and although not extreme we go  back to a AN temp pattern.  

This is good to see here :-)   May bode well for after the November warm up if you are going against the odds and hoping for a colder December in the East . 

Speaking of future PV displacements :

2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

 

Random notes From a talk by Amy Butler of NOAA

 Impacts of SSW extend to 60 days in the troposphere ... with the biggest impacts downstream of North American jet ... cold anomalies midlatitudes/Switzerland  ... warm anomalies eastern Canada, sub-tropics 

Downward coupling does not occur after all SSW ... and that SSW occur in context of other forcings such as ENSO, MJO Phase ..

SSW forecasts exceeding 15 days have no skill 

Week 3/4 skill is much larger when models are initialized with a weak polar vortex.  

Stronger more organized MJO when the 50 hPA QBP index is easterly 

 

 

 

That is true SSW forecasts exceeding 15 or more days have basically zero skill. 

However certain patterns, features,  triggers and other factors can set up and may provide the foundation for a PV displacement or even a SSW event.  

Last year, as you know,  there was a significant SSWE,  but the models did not forecast exactly the time when it occured,  but it did happen and they signaled the potential of one.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/plots/mapdisco/9Feb_2018/zonal_wind_forecasts.php

8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I didn’t realize the height pattern looked this good. Massive ULL in a great spot to lock in that cold. This would be server crasher if this was December, heck maybe even late Nov.

Not surprising with the deep NAO crash and  then a rise a HA event. ( maybe )  

Would be funny ( not ) , if this were the last time the NAO went significantly negative until Feb.  I believe this -NAO was brought upon by wave breaking in the Atlantic.   

Still will achieve the QFP needed for a good sign of snow this winter that many hold close by, and of course this is still a good sign that the predominant coastal track this winter may be a reality. 

Highly speculative but of interest due to the fact that the model has been forecasting this since early Sept. it generally has a window or time frame from late November to early Jan .   

Nothing unusual at this time with the PV, and not a very strong PV at this time. Looking at the forecasts presently,  seems progged to get stronger and then weaken slightly. 

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think what he is insinuating in a more technical manner is what I have been saying....this event is not as strong as 2002.

This has been my sole issue with that analog all along, and why I think this will be a more Miller B oriented season than that one was. AKA, not quite as snowy in the mid atl. Not bad, either, though...could still be good.

Agree.... in the end despite any changes to the El Nino, I think we are going to lack help in the my area, the Mid-Atlantic,  from the NAO domain. However,  maybe we counter that by having more nickel and dime events ( -EPO +PNA )  .  If we get a period of - NAO and get cooperation from the Southern jet and disturbances , like in 09-10 then maybe one single storm we could put down a lot of the seasonal snowfall. 

However to based a seasonal forecast on that outcome is silly . I am looking forward to your outlook.  When is is due,  later this week ?  

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, nothing new in my eyes. I still like a weak modoki event. Not extreme pike 2009 or 190968, but modoki, nonetheless.

Speaking of the Pac and the El Nino , this might be of interest to you as HM was talking about how we get to a certain outcome(s ),  starting from two different beginnings .

Not putting words in HM's mouth but I thought this was a interesting post by him this morning.  You can see below:

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are the implications of this?

Ray, to me this adds further evidence to the coming El Niño and supports a continuation of warmth transport , at least from a ocean current origin,  moving from the warmer waters of the far West Pac East to the Central Pac, and somewhat beyond.  As Ventrice mentioned , "this is the longest fetch of surface Eastward currents I have seen to date to year. "

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I bet when this October goes into the books 2002 temperatures will match.

Weathafella, you might be correct. Interesting developments continue with this progressing  El Nino .....

I really like this going forward in time.