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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

From what I have seen so far I am favoring a good back end to winter (Jan/Feb/Mar). Think we see it run deep into March where the northern/favored areas might sneak into April. Plenty of question marks in my mind though on the front end. 

Most seasonal models show in a general fashion a great Feb and a decent Jan , but Decembers can be fickle in a Nino years, Sure 2002 and 2009 delivered but we will need blocking.

If we get a huge - EPO and cooperative Pac then we will see maybe colder & snowier December. I guess in about 4 weeks we should have a handle on December. 

Not sure the role and the progression of the MJO,  but some have shown similarities to past Octobers,  where the cycle is phase 1 , 2 and 3 and make the argument  that by early December we should once again be in favorable colder/stormier phases for the East Coast. 

Maybe look for  a pattern reload in early December after a moderation later in November, not sure, more time needed to see the progression of things in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Exciting times may be a coming ..... 

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

A fluctuating NAO is normally indicative of storminess on the east coast. Many of our Kocin events occur when we see the NAO flip from a neg to pos. Where as a strong static -NAO generally favors a cold and suppressed look for our region where storms will run through the south with no amplification.

Yeah, so true Showme   :-)  

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just looking at that when you posted. Pretty significant drop in the last week or so. Still a fairly strong Modoki signature though it just falls under nino criteria. I've wondered over the last few years if whether the Modoki configuration (warmer sst's in 3.4 vs colder 1+2) was actually beneficial to our East Coast winter weather chances despite the ENSO state we may be in. Might have to go back at some point to see how our neutrals and Ninas preformed when the SSTs were aligned in this manner.

Yeah , the Eastern regions really will fluctuate and it is nice to see it coming down there, some past El Nino seasons you would see the shift happening now away from central based to more Eastern based. This year that is not happening, still expect central based Modaki type El Nino .  Question remains the large sub surface warmth there , when will it surface and where,  and does it last causing a two year event. 

This brings up the potential of a stormy cold March this year as we continue at that time to move further into the solar min and also factors that favor blocking might grow even stronger later in the winter season . Maybe this year brings an outcome in March similiar to 1958. Can see a significant snowstorm in March this year, just speculation,  but on the table .     

This is a good sign, a dropping NAO to negative , hard to believe it,  but seems likely to happen.   

I think in the end changes in the NAO ( + to -  and - to + ) might be better than having and hoping for very negative values.   

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

I expect this might be a kick off to a storm next weekend and the expectation of a lot of coastal storms this winter.  

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All seasonal models are advertising a coupled +pna/-epo now during the majority of met winter. The euro weeklies get it going in November. We don't need sick blocking for that to work out. Just avoid a raging +ao/nao and good things will happen.

I need to pull some enso analogs and compare similar looks. Pretty sure 02-03 had similar ridging along the west coast and AK. It's probably the ideal pattern to be at or BN temps in the eastern US. If we enter Dec with a solid +pna/-epo I'll go into full weenie mode. Only 6 weeks to go... heh

Wonder how long the warm blob lasts?  I saw some posts here about that.  I think Ian did an article on that very topic if I am not mistaken.  

I am thinking even if it does fad somewhat the El Nino should help out, but regardless,  you would think winter starts early this year. 

Not saying December 2009 MECS but maybe something like Dec 2002.  I think HM mentioned he felt things were not lining up to produce historic blocking this December. He said for blocking it needs to come from tropical forcing.         

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, that's actually not an awful look. Looks like a semi-active STJ to me given the precip in the south. And warmth in Alaska is something I want to see provided the PNA/EPO regions look good. Last thing I want is a black hole up there flooding the US with PAC warmth. We can get by with a crappy Atlantic. It's game over if the PAC is trash. IMO. 

I think the Pac drives the pattern this winter  , intervals of -EPO and + PNA and a few episodes later of -AO and even some -NAO.  

More from HM, this time about 1994 , here I can see the logic about that year.

So both of those years are extremes as he alludes to here.  So maybe we get a combo from various years.

I mean you can use a analog in a winter forecast,  but we should all know that the year(s) used are similiar to a degree but never an exact match in seasonal forecasting. 

For example this year I myself can see March being very harsh , when I think March 2003 was not.   I like 57 - 58 as a possible late season outcome . 

Per HM  , this is not a 2009 December coming up, OK 

To be fair to Anthony you really need to read all his tweets around this topic . He makes good points, as always.   

He went on to say about there are some positives,  but also mentioned at this time back in 2009 he was already speculating on a big storm in December, as you can read below. 

I did not look, but wondering what the AO and NAO were like durig the summer of 2009. 

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Winter cancel.  

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us

 

That's better than most years I think with an El Nino ........ 

Maybe this leads to a warmer November , but I think if this happens then it lessens the use of 2009 as a analog.  Speculation only....

Eric always seems to have keen insights on El Ninos .......wonder the eventual outcome , weak, or moderate ?  Or maybe inbetween and of course it could be classified as weak but there is the possibility that the sensibe weather outcomes might minic a moderate El Niino. 

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah could be.  Don’t think anyone gets to 32 this week but next week is probably an even money or better chance.

Not good news . Might need to do sod now under the trees , or my wife will kill me . 

This I like !  

Weeklies

Hmm no surprises , seems cold rest of the month into Nov and then a warm up .  After that who knows .....

Wonder if this helps us down the road , referring to the shake up at the top . Maybe we keep the PV on the weaker side and more prone to wave activity . 

The second image talks about the impact of the recent hurricanes , Atlantic and Pacific on the pattern. 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He still lives near BWI. 

On a unrelated note,  how is your grass seed coming along ?

I got lazy and never did my lawn yet, I guess I might still try in the next 3 days as I read fescue can  still germinate in air temps between 60 and 75. For me that will be on the lower range of temps ..... I do not see any more 70 plus days after today  

Ventrice 's low frequency forecast tool , that helps look at the El Nino like conditions ( in another way )  has done very well the past few months , today he posted this below . Thought  it was interesting,  as it mimics the Euro Seasonal forecast . As he goes on to mention,  the connection most likely is the El Nino itself as the main driver in the Euro's forecast, as per Ventrice that is. 

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mitch joined Phillywx this month and has started posting there.  That makes me sad

Did he moved North ?  I thought he was in your sub-forum area, like DC or Balt. ??

Yeah, that is sad. 

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I mean, October 2009 was a cold month and had a mid October snowstorm in central Pennsylvania. 

The month ended up being the 3rd coldest for the country as well

But of course, instances such as 1979 and of course 2011 show up, so it may just be the Bermuda Triangle of months for us folks. Many instances of both good and bad winters following, but we just focus on the bad ones 

Not everything points to 2011. From a simple SOI / MEI comparison I believe 1957 -58 shows up for the most  similiar June to early Sept SOI progression . 

I believe that year featured a very severe Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in March 

58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Practice makes perfect.... or atmospheric memory, or something, lol.

GEFS has been hinting at the same sort of look towards the end of the month.

EPS weeklies had a good look up top for much of November. Be interesting to see what this week's edition looks like, as the very end of the run will be into December.

Looks like storm potential  increases at the end of the month .  Also,  the WAR is slowly becoming displaced and less of a factor .

I like this trend and set up a lot ! 

In many years past Siberia would get the snow and Canadian snow cover would suffer. 

Also, I like that fact that since Canada is vital as a cryosphere cold seeding ground seeing this so early and continuing, is a possible sign that we could get earlier than normal cold deliveries and set up earlier potential of winter threats down the line. 

20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Bastardi is all over that analog!  October CONUS temps are close to a mirror image with the torch start transition to negative late.

North Atlantic SST profile not the same, you agree ?  Other parts of the Atlantic are tohugh and so is the Pac overall. 

I also think right now the SSTs West of Australia that were super cold might have warmed a tad 

December 2018 to Feb. 2019 from the JMA ............ I like    

Looks to a degree like the Euro and Ukmet Seasonals  :-) 

41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah whats happening around AK caught my eye too. Also looking for some early hints of HL blocking. Looks like the GEFS kinda wants to develop an east based block towards the end of its run lol.

With all the anticipation for an epic winter (lol) I reactivated my WB account early. Just for kicks I looked at the latest EPS weeklies. It's way out there, but it has a favorable h5 look mid to late Nov- Aleutian low, EPO ridge, expansive red/orange colors up top, and building over GL from mid month on. Not very cold verbatim, but it would be November and its silly to over analyze a LR tool. The upshojt is the players are on the field and in pretty good position.

I believe the JMA weeklies show a builiding West Coast ridge week 4 .

And on another note very interesting in regards to  Chukchi Sea, this is the area near and around all the recent warmth up there .

More and more warmth aimed up there 

47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I really have no idea how much of a factor it is, but imo Cohen way overplays it. Probably a weak correlation at best. The dude is a self promoter though, and he is more than happy to take credit for cold/snowy outcomes, even when the mechanisms that produced it literally didn't evolve per his theory. Remember the epic snow period in NE, particularly the Boston area, a few winters ago? He gleefully claimed victory.

True.

Looking at some of the models there is going to be a rather significant expansion of snow cover soon up there in Siberia .  I still feel though there is some correlation to the the coming solar minimum.