frd

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I mean, damn. Just had to walk down to the harbor and it is insane, the humidity level. Like, deep summer bad. Just, gross.

Wow,  like the heat index is 89 here and the PWATs for this day are close to if not at a record already, nuts !!!  

 YES PLEASE  !!!!!!!

I love it , the new seasonal UKMET , supports the Euro , yet it is colder and the above normal precip along the  East Coast is there .

Kattie Bar the Door, ( Herb Clarke ) anyone remember him , well, then if you do you are old like me..... , Ha ha  ( J/K ) 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

UKMET Seasonal model updated...& oh my! Similar to the European seasonal but colder in U.S. overall. Everyone east of Rockies below normal temps. Above normal precip on the east coast & STJ looks to be active. UKMET is truly a winter lovers dream in the east:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Let me add: -EPO driven; however, noticeably more blocking as winter moves along in the AO & NAO regions. 

 

 

Question - when was the last time we had the Euro and the UKMET on our side for snow and cold for a winter's seasonal forecast?  I frankly can't recall.   

On 7/30/2018 at 7:16 AM, bluewave said:

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/7/eaat6025

Previous studies have extensively investigated the impact of Arctic sea ice anomalies on the midlatitude circulation and associated surface climate in winter. However, there is an ongoing scientific debate regarding whether and how sea ice retreat results in the observed cold anomaly over the adjacent continents. We present a robust “cold Siberia” pattern in the winter following sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara seas in late autumn in an advanced atmospheric general circulation model, with a well-resolved stratosphere. Additional targeted experiments reveal that the stratospheric response to sea ice forcing is crucial in the development of cold conditions over Siberia, indicating the dominant role of the stratospheric pathway compared with the direct response within the troposphere. In particular, the downward influence of the stratospheric circulation anomaly significantly intensifies the ridge near the Ural Mountains and the trough over East Asia. The persistently intensified ridge and trough favor more frequent cold air outbreaks and colder winters over Siberia. This finding has important implications for improving seasonal climate prediction of midlatitude cold events. The results also suggest that the model performance in representing the stratosphere-troposphere coupling could be an important source of the discrepancy between recent studies.

https://eos.org/articles/why-are-siberian-temperatures-plummeting-while-the-arctic-warms

By Kimberly M. S. Cartier  26 July 2018

Climate change is warming the Arctic and melting sea ice, yet Siberia has experienced significantly colder and harsher winters for the past few decades. A study published yesterday in Science Advances shows that interactions between melting regional sea ice and the stratosphere—an atmospheric layer spanning about 10–50 kilometers above Earth’s surface—play a key role in creating these frigid winter conditions.

This stratospheric pathway “significantly contributes to the occurrence of the surface cold events over the Eurasian midlatitude, especially in Siberia and East Asia,” Pengfei Zhang, lead scientist on the study, told Eos. Zhang is a postdoctoral researcher in climate science at Purdue University in Lafayette, Ind.

Scientists previously have observed that Siberia experiences colder winters when the Barents and Kara Seas, two sub-Arctic seas off the northern Eurasian coast, exhibit greater sea ice loss in the preceding autumn months. Zhang’s team modeled the cascading effects of that regional sea ice loss to see what factors may lead to a colder Siberia.

They found that modeling the circulation changes in the stratosphere was key in reproducing the observed Siberian chill. “The impact of sea ice loss in late autumn–early winter persists throughout the whole winter due to the long timescale of stratospheric processes,” Zhang explained.

 

The Barents­­ and Kara Seas reach their minimum in sea ice concentration by November each year. Years that have seen the lowest concentrations of sea ice because of warm Arctictemperatures were followed by Siberian cold anomalies lasting through the next 3 months. Average wintertemperatures in the region typically hover around –18°C, but sometimes temperatures drop to –25°C for spans of a week or more. One northern Siberian town even sawtemperatures plummet to –66°C this past January.

 

The explanation for this “warm Arctic, cold Siberia” pattern remained elusive. Scientists debated whether the harsh winter conditions were caused by natural variability in the troposphere—the atmospheric layer closest to the surface—or whether higher atmospheric layers, as some models have suggested, also played a role. Differences between atmospheric circulation models as well as incomplete treatments of the stratosphere within those models complicated the debate, Zhang explained.

In this research, Zhang and his team used an advanced atmospheric general circulation model to link sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas with Siberian surface climate and weather extremes. The models, which include state-of-the-art stratosphere calculations, used observed sea ice concentration to predict sea and air surface temperatures, surface wind velocities, and cold air outbreaks, as well as circulation patterns in the troposphere and stratosphere.

Then they tried to find a distinct trigger. “We switched on and off the stratosphere–troposphere coupling in the model to explicitly isolate the solid pathways underlying the Arctic–Eurasia linkage,” Zhang explained.

 

When the models considered only air circulation near the surface, the researchers found that their simulations yielded a warmer Siberia than what was observed. To get the region as frigid and windy as it has been during recent winters, they found that they needed to include stratospheric circulation as well as mixing between the troposphere and the stratosphere.

In short, they found that decreased sea ice concentrations weaken and shift the stratospheric polar vortex, a low-pressure phenomenon that helps drive regional climate patterns. This weakened polar vortex then causes a colder Siberia.

By accurately accounting for the stratosphere, the team was able to reproduce observed climate conditions in Siberia using only regional sea ice loss rather than ice loss across the entire Arctic.

Can the technique be used to predict, say, the winter climate events over Eurasia? Perhaps, Zhang said, but accuracy depends on whether climate and weather models “can simulate a realistic stratosphere.”

The team is currently exploring whether the stratosphere plays a similar role in linking regional sea ice loss to extreme weather events in the northern reaches of North America.

@bluewave

This was a very interesting read , do you feel there will be a winter correlation here ( East Coast ) as in high scale winter events on the East Coast ?  

And do you think blocking episodes in the AO domain will be greater this winter becasue of the things mentioned iin the article . Thanks 

I already see some indications the the PV is elongating and might be prone to influences from the Pac and the Atlantic , thoughts ?

It is about time 

I have not seen this in a while for early October in Alaska , crazy stuff all around , low sea ice and a lack of snow cover in that region .   

1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

DT looks like he is getting closer and closer to being all in on this winter

 

I have seen some on the web mention   Michael and the Opal 1995 redux , but that was Nina not Nino .

Then I hear the progression from early Oct warmth to cooler just like in 2002.  Certainly seems like things are changing on many fronts now, but what the final outcome is is for the upcoming winter is still hard to determine.

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA +11.8 on October to date.

Interesting flip coming up similiar to 2002 to a degree.  Also, an Opal redux aka 1995  :-)   disclaimer :  nothing implied here just mentioning  

No surprises here but ........ wonder about the future here: 

Persist or switch -  

This is like the Holy Grail........................

A met who can devise a way to predict the average Winter state would be a golden  

On a side note,  a lot of changes coming up with the SSTs in this region,  but the real driver is still not known, at least not enough to make an accurate long term forecast

4 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

October precip: 0.00”

Maybe the cold front coming late week ,plus the tropical system changes all that . 

Plus, we are due again for flooding .

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering I did back to back chases at Rehoboth the last 2 Januarys for the best snowstorm(s) of those winters, seems the immediate coast has been on a bit of roll. That likely wont be the case if we get a legit El Nino, however. Those areas could still do okay, but areas further inland would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

Blizzard warnings at the beach 2 out of the the last 4 winters beating the inland areas I believe .   Incredible really,  and very surreal images there. Your photos I still recall in my mind .  

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Fwiw (not much) latest CFS runs are looking pretty decent for Dec and Jan, and quite good for Feb and March. This has been a gradual trend for the better from recent total crapola runs. Of course, we all know how it goes with that model.

Well, two things for certain .............................March is the new December, and  Dewey Beach is the new Boston     :-)    

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but I wouldn't read too much into it right now...just one piece.

Did you see the latest Euro seasonal , looks sweet.

I think that is three months in a row and last year in it's October release it did rather well with it's seasonal forecast per Ed Valle . 

The Euro Winter forecasts continues it's positive streak to three months with the latest release  :

YES Please   :-)   

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ita akin to discounting anything with a positive NAO in the means during a strong la nina/solar max couplet.

That said, I have my doubts regarding NAO, too.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/

I thought the many years form 1992 to 1995 without - AO contributions was due mostly to the incredible eruption of Mount Pinatuba. 

It made the strat an icebox and lingered for years. I thought this time period should be used cautiously as any analogs  for future winters.  

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...marginal. I buy it...look at the subsurface. Ventrice has been all over the ongong atmospheric reorientation, while others were spouting off about 2012. This el nino was never in jeopardy.

I estimated .8 or .9 as a peak is one of my blogs this fall, and still feel good about that.

You stil feel that the stronger the El Nino , granted it is West based / Modaki , the more it could benefit my region , the Mid Atlantic ?

Also, have you done any research about the type of El Nino and the correlation the the NAO domain?   

Through the years so  many NAO formulas by others have not worked out. 

However, I remember you mentioing Tom ( Isotherm) has fairly good skill in this area, looking forward to his thoughts as well as your Winter forecast later on. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big jump...from like .6 to 1.1C

Looking at that Euro forecast graph it would appear it takes off rather quickly from here, most of the forecasted rise is closer to the present versus later. Does that mean the forecast is more accurate, not sure. 

Ray,  is that forecast bordering on moderate now ? 

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As analogs start popping up, all this talk of what years people find acceptable and what years earn a "pass" I wanted to post some reality of what climo actually is.  I preface this by saying I have no right to tell anyone what their opinion of a "good winter" should be.  That is subjective.  But I do think it is valuable to know what the numbers say is typical for our area because if someone wants to consider only years where we get 30" good that is totally their right...but if they then act like that is what should happen every year and subject the board to constant whining when 90% of our winter's fall short of that is not cool IMO.  

First of all people should stop using the mean as their judge of "typical".  Our means are skewed by the handful of blockbuster winters in the last 30 years.  Just about every site (even up here) has a median that is significantly lower then the mean.  The median (kind of like the 50/50 over under) is a better judge of what typical is.  Even that isnt perfect as we have a LOT of varience in this area but its closer to what you can expect as a 50/50 over under year to year.  About half the time you will beat that number.  And half you will not.  For up here my Mean is close to 40" but my median is only 31".  So my goal each year is to get close to 30".  As long as I don't finish significantly under that I don't feel like it was a "bad" year.  Yea my mean is 40 but a year somewhere in the 25-35" range is actually typical and only 30% or so of winters actually are better then that.  Those years with 60"+ skew the mean.  

Also we should probably look at what the 30 year numbers tell us using the last 30 years...not the climo numbers from 1980 to 2010 because we are close to the end of this decade and the new "normals" are going to change and reflect this decade.  So I used the 30 years going back to the 1989 season to compile the numbers below.

DCA 

Mean: 13.9"

Median: 10.1"

BWI

Mean: 19.6"

Median: 15.3"

IAD

mean: 21.4"

Median: 14.7"

 

So recently there seems to be a consensus that 2004/5 sucked.  But at all 3 airports it was above the median.

IAD: 17.3

DCA: 12.5

BWI: 18

So for each station it was a decent amount over our median and looking at the last 30 years if we count seasons that ended up within an inch of that year...only about 30% of our winters will be better then that.  So if people want to consider 2005 a crappy year that is totally fine, as long as they realize that 70% of years will be only that good OR WORSE!!!

 

Nice way to look at things in a almost a Zen-like manner  :-) 

In many lean years 2005 would indeed be great in comparison  

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well winter of 77-78 was a very good one/one of the greats for lots of folks around the country...New England and the Mid-West.  But it's just one piece of the puzzle as Ray said at this point. 

It has certainly has been being making some significant moves the last 60 days.  

2018  -19.02  -19.37  -19.77  -21.41  -24.23  -28.45  -29.10  -20.41   -9.91 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1977 is by far the best QBO analog looking at the September value...

Thats good ? 

31 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd pass down here

Agree, yuck !!  

Yoda do you know when the Euro seasonal is released again ?  I thought it was today ? 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS says fall is only 10 days away!

Did you see that modeled storm in Eastern Canada from the GFS, crazy forecast but then again maybe not. Could be the start of the change.  

18 hours ago, poolz1 said:

 

Give us this same MJO in Nov and winter starts early. IMO, we are right where we should be....though the over amplified nature of the pattern is a bit extreme. As you said, SOI continues it’s fall and the MJO is taking a tour of 8,1 & 2 then back to the COD which is not cold this time of year....

Maybe we are seeing where the MJO wants to set up this season as the elnino comes on? It’s kind of like the banter on here about snow in October being a dagger for winter...coldest phase in Oct is 5, iirc. Give us a phase 5 during the winter months and it’s close the blinds.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Thats all true and interesting as well. 

As for the turn to wetter here , that seems off into the future a bit . My daughter in Denver might see snow soon.  

Pretty wet out West and in Cali rain , wow 

40 minutes ago, yoda said:

We like

 

Seems HM thinks we should not use the later 70's or the 94-95 one ,

I believe one one reason for not using the 70's is he feels we are not in that regime and for the 94 one too close to the volcanic eruption  and other factors he mentions below. 

Hey I am totally fine with using 09-10  though per uncle W   :-)

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's amazing how well we have done with snowfall under El Nino, La Nina, neutral, and record winter warmth. Only 2 below normal snowfall seasons in the new reduced sea ice era which began in summer and fall 2007. 

And even storms predicted to stay South still came North and nailed NYC   ( maybe one exception 09-10 ) and lets not forget all the recent thundersnow - crazy times.

You guys have done very well .