frd

Yeah BABY !!!!!!!

35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Know it is hard to bet against the Euro but in this case I wonder. It seems to me that the GEFS has generally had a better handle on the Scandinavian ridging as well as the PNA/EPO on both strength in placement in the longer range when it comes to verification at shorter ranges. Though I did look back a touch to verify this belief this is mostly going off memory so I could be wrong. Truth be told, what we will probably end up with is a compromise of the quicker GFS solution and the delayed Euro. All I know is that I think it isn't a matter of 'If" but 'When" for us to see what I think will be a great pattern.

Did not last winter at times the GEFS did do well forecasting these things ?

If that block retrogrades like that to the Davis Straights its money time. I believe at hour 144 it is forecasted to be 588 meters, wow. I think I posted last week about the record warmth above the surface targeted for Finland and Scandanavia. Coming true into a monster block. 

Granted this has been a feature there too over the summer as well. Just not as strong.     

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just be prepared for a flip to blah during early December. Doesn't look like it now but just be ready for it. Doesn't mean winter cancel or anything like that. It's totally normal for nino December's to have a zonal warmish conus pattern. As long as it doesn't coincide with a +AO it won't be a bad sign. 

Yeah, do you think that because now the cold could last until the end of the month when a few days ago it was going to warm up near the 15 th or 18 th, does that mean the warmth comes later in December and lasts longer once we get into the month ? I am not sure.  I would think any relaxation should be brief. ( I hope ) 

So far this look above at the high lattitudes you are talking about should have a short reload period in early to mid December. I mean Isotherm has a cold and stormy December. 

There is a lot to like. 

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That elongated BN height pattern is showing up more and more. Would imply active coast to coast storm track and would work well. Not a particularly cold or amplified  pattern like 14-15 but can easily envision elongated hp to the north of us pressing against low pressure underneath. Storm track would be more east versus north. Bodes well for the MA/SE

Agreed, and maybe another outcome is at some point a large chunk of the Country is snow covered, with a track like that,  E to W. 

Just read today that NA snow cover continues to grow and we are at/near decadal records . 

I really feel the feedback may be why the cold is staying longer than originally modeled.   

I just wish any warm up we do have does not eat up a lot of Canada's snow cover.  

And, if the last Euro snowfall seasonal is correct, by mid December even Frosty would be happy.    

5 hours ago, Isotherm said:

My NAO, “Formula” which I developed several years ago and incorporates 4 main sub-components. Its retrospective success in forecasting the modality of the ensuing DJF NAO since 1950 has been 87%; and, since utilizing it prospectively, it has verified accurately in the past 4 winters as far as prognosticating the DJF NAO modality. The past several autumns, the NAO formula has strongly indicated a winter-time positive NAO. This year, for the first time since the beginning of this decade, the formula indicates that the NAO will average negative for the DJF winter season; not strongly so, but weakly negative to potentially moderately negative. Compared to the positive NAO dominance of the past several winters, it will be a material alteration.

Of interest today I see the new UKMET seasonal was issued, and to my eyes it seems to have gone to more of a -NAO look very it's previous update. Seems to echo your forecast of the NAO to a degree.

I wanted to say your NAO forecasts are remarkable, especially in view of how difficult, if not impossible that indice is to predict on a seaonal basis.  

I include this as well for reference : 

The new UKMET seasonal is out, it holds the good trends .

I like it, seems like more NAO blocking. Looks active as well. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem with sswe is we have very little ability to predict it and it doesn't even always correlate to blocking and cold where we need it. So is a lot of talk often for no results. 

True, as you know many times the colder outcomes go towards Europe or even Siberia. We hardly ever get lucky with them. A fickle beast. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Frankly if we have a winter void of SSWE talk it's probably a good sign!!!

Ha Ha Yeah, I can live with his forecast and no strat talk. Basically, he states it is not needed for the outcomes he is forecastng. I was simply curious.  

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern.

Isotherm thank you for your outlook. I was looking forward to it . 

Can you explain, if time permits,  why you feel a technical SSWE during the MET winter is not likely this year?  

I read this part " solar flux is running quite low, as we descend into the minimum of solar cycle 24 (which is still at least 1 year away). Flux values have generally hovered around 700 or slightly lower. Suppressed solar forcing in concert with increasingly westerly shear stress due to the positive QBO will act to stabilize the upper level stratospheric vortex, and destructively interfere with sudden stratospheric warming events."

I thought maybe the odds were higher due to the phase change with the QBO and the low solar background state. Seems we need solar forcing ?

Thanks, and much appreciated ! 

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

#14 in his methodology section is my favorite part. I was like 

As for this I am surprised. i thought maybe this winter the odds were increased. ( see the quote below from his outlook ) 

Plus the SSWE last Feb caused the cold and snowy March, right ? 

" In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern."

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

#14 in his methodology section is my favorite part. I was like 

Me too !!

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Isotherm's winter outlook is out. Y'all might like it.

 

Thank you , thank you :-)  Been waiting on his outlook for a long time. I feel he does a very good job. 

I LOVE THIS !!!!  ( from his outlook )

The sub-tropical jet (STJ) should become active with wetter than normal and snowier than normal conditions. Most of the Northeast corridor will have the first real chance of a white Christmas in almost a decade.

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is certainly the fastest green-to-bare tree progression I can ever recall here. Basically 4-5 weeks between noticeable color and generally bare trees. 

The transition from late summer to Fall and then a preview of winter was pretty remarkable. I had figs on my fig tree up till yesterday here , now zap, everything falling to the ground just looking out the window. 

I look forward to the next transition from winter preview to deep winter with snow cover and a snow swept landscape.  I hope your reseeding holds :-) I never got to doing my lawn,  but will try a new method and do mid winter seeding after the ground starts to freeze and crack. Might be a waste of money, will see.  

Seems later in the month there is pressure on the PV from both the Atlantic and Pac sides, certainly no blue ball up there. 

Andrew makes some wild 3 D animations regarding the strat 

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, getting close to go time if the AO is going to be a dominant feature during met winter.  To get a -1.25 or lower AO on the means for Dec we can't waste a bunch of time with a +AO during the first half of the month. I'm really hoping the -AO signal is strong as we close out this month. Plenty of lead time to not worry one way or the other but as the weeks go by that's certainly something to watch closely. 

I hate to even bring this up, but I will :-)  I read some update from Judah and basically it implies that the nature of the SAI ad the timing aspect at the VERY end of the month of October, ( very important to him/his research  ), plus other various factors such as drivers and preconditioners  of the upcoming pattern that he looks to to drive a winter -AO are in his favor and according to him look good if you like winter and cold and snow. 

So, we better have a averaged -AO this winter.  I still feel that despite him taking credit for past winters that were cold but that did not feature a -AO he still has some insights worth considering. I like to look at 20 + things and then try to get a consensus feeling, I am with you Bob, I think this winter will deliver compared to thr past few.       

Interesting given this normally shows warmth I think 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nor do I foresee any imminent ascension to moderate status...the classic STJ dominant seasons like 1986, 2002 and 2009 were significantly stronger by this point. Even if this event were to mutate, and intensifies until next fall, we are running out of time to maintain relevance for this particular cold season.

Would you then say weaker Nino = colder winter overall ? versus 02-03 and 09-10 possibly ?  

And maybe certain areas will simply have more snow ( above climo )  due to more frequent events,  ( even with less -NAO ) versus years like 02-03 and 09-10 that had HECS / MECS and contributed so much to the overall snowfall totals.  

I still like the overall manner in which the SSTs seem to favor keeping the MJO out of the super warm phases. That could change though at some point.   

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The first half of this November is a departure from the drier 2010's patterns. This will be the wettest first half of November for NYC during the 2010's. The record for NYC since 1980 is 5.15 in 1995.

November 1-15 NYC precipitation of the 2010's:

2018.....1.57.... so far with more to come

2017.....0.81

2016.....1.87

2015.....0.71

2014....0.98

2013...0.29

2012...1.27

2011...0.04

2010..1.18

You always has great insights and weather facts ! 

Question, do you feel in regards to what you posted above are there any possible correlations to the coming winter ? Or, simply a chance happening.     

12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Based on what I hear about the euro weeklies, the pattern evolves as we expect through the first week or two of December and then craps the bed the last two weeks. But whatever, very low skill at that range.

Interesting model uncertainy has been occurring - and even the Euro struggling , as seen here :

Nothing set in stone yet. 

So based on the weeklies were off the latest Euro can easily change on this Monday. 

The Scand feature is highly interesting and a close fit to 2014,  player too maybe in a mid winter SSW with the current phase change of the QBO ad other factors.

The SSW is speculation, but the model changes are real . Bluewave commented a couple weeks ago maybe model swings are due to the battling of Nina and Nino   

2014 ish   

And the Scandinavian ridge feature on the GEFS by Judah - very prominent global depiction there, of course only a forecast 

More on the Scandinavian ridge:

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Muted and blah....no real strong signal of anything after early Dec.  Not a disaster but not what I was hoping to see for a strong Dec showing.  On a positive note...they will run again on Monday. 

Blah, is right ......... not what I expected, but goes along with many mets that feel December is warm. Oh well . There are times when the weeklies crap the bed too 

Euro is not perfect by far , weeklies have had intervals of great verification scores and then, not so good.

Brrrrr.........

Hat.... check     Gloves...check .......  Chap Stick ......big check     Sled......   not yet    :-(

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Restrain your shock, but JB2 is all in. 30”+ at BWI.

https://justinweather.com/2018/11/07/my-winter-outlook-2018-to-2019-multiple-noreasters-and-more-snow/

Ha Ha "Group think"   :-)   

Although speculation, certainly this goes in the plus column, continued pressure on the PV , this is also centered in the second half of this month, so there are now a few things that could play a hand in December's weather, say after December 10th possibly.