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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And pushing 90 again late next week.  Good ****ing grief.

Amazing how warm the Ocean temps still are.  I see nothing to cool them anytime soon,  maybe just the seasonal decline of solar.   

Might be thinking this October we could have an East Coast  hurricane threat , not out of the question based on the SSTs and progression of rising air over the Atlantic in a few weeks.   

 https://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/atlantic-city-new-jersey

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not. 

I agree, good thoughts. 

I know we are still dropping down in the solar cycle and not sure, as I have not checked , when we are suppose to hit the bottom and whether there is a lag effect.

I am sure the winter outlooks ( some ) will take this into this account and explore it in more detail.  The QBO is fascinating of itself , and that will play a role as well. 

I read that the El Nino is not going to be as robust and that some feel the Eastern regions are really going to warm up. I am not sure about that though. I read here on various forums that 

Some members,  in other regional boards,  feel that this El Nino will be weak, and because of that it will lead to more Miller B's and less snow for the Mid Atlantic . Who knows for sure. On the opposite spectrum what if forcing in the Pac is Modakii iun nature you get a different look . And then you have what Ventrice talks about, which is  the low frequency forcing . A lot to consider.  

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wonder if that's how it went down the last time we had a neutral after a 2 niñas...lol My expectations for this winter are so low that it's hard to imagine being too disappointed...I'm putting my cards in 2019-20 winter with a mod Niño! 

Now doesn't the hurricane activity mean that any Niño we get this year at all is gonna be really weak? (Or is it related at all? I was thinking in terms of the wind shear and such...Nino is bad for hurricanes, right?)

2019 - 20 might be better :-)

Seriously though the JAMSTEC changed tunes with it's most recent update going warm. That  was a bummer.  Also, going for a stronger El Nino as well. 

Interesting thing is previously it had Northern Canada and other areas  reddish in the color scale, , maybe a sign of blocking - temp wise -  now,  I am not so sure as that flipped too.  

It  is very early to make calls yet, but I like consistency and this flip well, is a  concern to me.  Have to see what the Euro does in it's next update.  I believe we are at two in a row from the Euro with a good look for us.   

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The latest JAMSTEC has trended warmer for both US winter and El Nino strength - with an El Nino peaking late winter, not fall or December/Jan.

Precipitation pattern is kind of weird.

Cold Greenland...no blocking (no -NAO)?

Stronger later - El Nino from Sept - Aug 2019 on this depiction.

Similar Modoki pattern with all Nino zones warming from before.

Overall, nice to the models sticking with an El Nino. I don't think the NE will be particularly cold personally, despite a Modoki-ish setup. I think Nino 1.2 is going to warm a lot late, and the NAO and blocking will be transient - so I don't this run is completely out to lunch.

So you are saying a warm, non eventful winter? 

Wonder why some seasonal models were depicting blocking on latest runs  ? 

It's about time :-)

This just out.......

I thought we did better with a moderate El Nino, however,  maybe the location of the warmer waters and forcing are just as important .

Mentioning this from another forum :

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Now, if only the 'weather' will participate instead of broil us alive......

The cicadas are out in force this morning , seems like mid July as I went out for a coffee. All outside surfaces drenced from dew and moisture - ugh !   

Granted this is looking out into September, still it's amazing how long this warmth looks to hold.  

I guess over seeding will have to wait . I cancelled my lawn aerator till at least the middle of September. Lawn was recovering a bit and now this heat has it looking 

aweful again . 

8 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

With no end in sight.

This is true,  looking at September as a whole it seems only the very end of the month may feature some cooler weather.  And wow,  there are some very warm SSTs off the East Coast , the buoy off of Cape May , NJ. is 80 degrees F. 

Also, it looks like the Atlantic hurricane season will be ramping up big time soon,  A large hurricane in the center of the Atlantic and moving North over time next week and then another more threatening long track may form and threaten the Southeast in 15 to 20 days . Speculation of couyrse, but things are going to get more active. 

This will also possibly change the NW Atlantic SST configuration no doubt as well with implications for thew winter season maybe.    

Speaking of the QBO -  

Also Amy has good stuff on this topic and SSWE

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be

Interesting, he  like most is  focusing on the El Nino, but he, as well as others , seem to give weight as well to the QBO and solar. The QBO could be in the sweet spot but still  hard to know. Solar continues to drop. He also mentioned the Atlanic SST tripole cold/warm/cold but honestly of all the indices I think the NAO is the most difficult to predict.

I found it interesting that many of his constructed analog maps based on the QBO and the weak El Nino had a stellar December. With Feb not so great. 

Confusing to a degree,  as Feb seems to be the best in our parts with an El Nino.  

I myself like his thoughts and looking at some data and history maybe a good December is possible although to get an entire month to be good is very difficult in this day and age. 

3 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

GFS keeps going back and forth between mid-70s vs mid-90s for Labor Day weekend

Over -night EPS showing some indications that heat will be short lived.  Intereaction of those West Pac typhoons most likely.  

9 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

We've never had such widespread warmth over the NW Atlantic. Could prove to be a unique winter albeit a very warm one with bouts of wet snow. The kind of wet snow that caves in roofs and such. Fun.

This SST anomaly might very well change by the heart of the cold season. 

19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

2.66" in 75 minutes.

Wow ! Very impressive . I think you were due right :-)  

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah definitely much luck involved that year...lol And given how last winter went...not sure I wanna test our luck with a neutral this year...Last winter scarred my hopes in anything trending our way till we get a bonafide moderate Niño. Yeah it's illogical, but ya know...recency bias, lol But at least in a Neutral we don't have to get screwed over by the NS, but...eh....Now you'd think we'd be due for an El Niño in 2019-20, right?...

Seems the Jasmtec flipped to warmer in it's latest update, and reading a bit here in the New England forum there is thought that it may be due to it losing the warmer DJF SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska.  Way to early for anything solid to grasp IMHO

Reading all the comments, ( well mostly Ventrice's )  in this tweet was very interesting .  Seems the low frequency forcing and and convection  to set up near the date line per Ventrice during the cold season.  

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our best combo is west based mod nino. I was just saying that one could happen and we get the shaft anyways. 

With neutrals we need blocking of some sort. Either neg ao, nao, or epo. Another good teleconnection is a +pdo. That usually translates to a +pna. That works here too. 

I wouldn't worry much at all until we get into Nov. That's the earliest we can judge teleconnections and even that's a stretch. 

Hey Bob, thanks for stopping in . Looking ahead at least there is hope . I myself prefer moderate over weak and West based.  I believe weak Ninos favor Southern New England and moderate Ninos favor us more, just saying, I know you know that ha ha . But, my point is that I rather gamble with the Nino going stronger than forecasted. 

Might be hard to get a moderate EL Nino, not sure at this point. I am more comfortable with the thinking the warmest waters and the best forcing is West based.  

Interesting read from Tip in the New England forum about the winter evolution and the Nino and other elements at play. Not as simple as it apears. Heh, is it ever ? 

Take care Bob, I am noticing the days getting shorter - we are on the road back :-)  

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Disney World is still pretty cool to go to as an adult thought... just my opinion

I second that, plus the food is good.

I recommend the Disney Planner thing where you go to things, rides, etc,  based on a time table counter the normal trends .  Developed by a Disney tour guide(s). 

The general trends continue . I like what HM put together here 

40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Saw someone post in another forum that El Niños have a tendency to fail during solar minimums...Now was 2009 a solar minimum year, or did we hit that the year before? (I'm trying to see if there's a snowier trend in the 2nd winter after the minimum or the first)

I could be mistaken, but believe the solar min reaches it's lowest point in late 2019 or early 2020. If so, the winter of 19-20 will be effected as well, and possibly more so than this coming winter. Noty sure of the QBO at that point though. Also, keep an eye as the Fall rolls on the ozone levels up there as HM made referenced to that a few weeks ago,   

Speculation these MJO events continue into the winter season, possibly help to forecast certain active periods, not sure, but another one is forecasted.

SOI going down and more to continue. 

Meanwhile :

Further North carzy stuff just offshore NJ , as the area that effected me rolled North

Pretty interesting August in some areas 

Got pounded again last night , flood warnings issued and extend into SE PA. 

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

3 hr flash flood guidance is still under 2” for much of LWX’s area.

Getting hit very hard here now , multiple rounds of very heavy rain, Flood warning in effect.  Slow movers too