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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what I have read, solar minimum will be reached by mid 2019...which bodes well for this season.

Great news <   And , so far 14 days in a row with no sunspots.

With the later minimum next summer might be cooler as well ........................ ha ha I wish . 

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That was nina.

Ah, OK,  Ii was thinking of 2006 - 07 winter .  I also came across this good summary as well , link below .  

Per Ray, ( aka Benchmark via the New England Forum ) " First of all, while it was technically a modoki el nino, it only registered about a DM mean modoki reading +.33 on the scale, which is somewhat lower than where this event is projected to verify at near +.50. " 

  http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/weak-modoki-el-nino-imminent.html

38 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I did something similar last year for nina...fwiw

El Ninos (DCA)
Winter	Modoki	Winter Snow	+/- Winter Snow	Winter NAO	Nov Temp	Dec Temp	Nov NAO	Dec NAO
1986-87	Y	31.1"	+	N	-	+	+	+
1991-92	Y	6.6"	-	+	-	+	+	+
1994-95	Y	10.1"	-	+	+	+	N	+
2002-03	Y	40.4"	+	N	-	-	-	N
2004-05	Y	12.5"	-	N	+	N	N	+
2009-10	Y	46"	+	-	+	-	+	-

I thought 05 / 06 was a very very weak Modaki like .33.  Do you know if that is true but what happened I think is that as the season progressed the warmer Pac SSts shifted East. 

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Absolutely...There is no data out there to suggest that 1+2 stays warm for any extended period of time (or, warmer than 3.4).  Really nothing to dislike about the SST in PAC except for my cherrypicked graph there..lol  I'm just practicing my normal handwringing before winter arrives. 

The cold water west of Australia is going to have a real hard time reversing anytime soon which should continue the SOI crash and the damage should be done by the time we head into winter.

All true :-) 

Also , the Euro and the Aussie MJO models are depicting a move into phases 1 and 2 down later in October.  The Plains looked like they will be locked into colder weather soon and lasting a while. At least the progression looks good by the models.

I guess the next things to watch will be the NE Pac and the PDO, the extent of the developing Modaki El Nino, and looking at the strat and patterns up above, like the QBO , solar, and hints at the strength of the PV.    

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Hoping this is just a blip in 1+2.  I know this region can be volatile but this is a pretty good spike.

That is a huge spike up,  but it may very well may trend down in a few weeks. Your right of all the areas this one is very volatile. 

Meanwhile the  big negative SOI burst continues. Nice to see that at this point . The SST profile in the SW Pacific is very interesting.   

28 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

Interesting from my days back at Eastern Weather and before then Wright Weather, ( ages ago ) KA was on a roll for a few years . DT brought him more so into the public eye I think. 

Doesn't KA use observed weather events up to this point in the DC area for  his foirecasts ?  I thought KA did not use analogs??   Regardless , I think it is really hard to make a forecast  this early.   

Seems he and Weather 53 are at odds with temps.  As for Weather 53's analog set I have not heard those years yet being thrown out by many.   

I think this year with a gun held to my head there is no middle ground , I think it is either going to be cold and snowy or warm and wet , or even the potential for warm and dry despite the El Nino. 

These days seems the weather wants to go one way or another. 

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Remember that 79 snow well. Going to Owings Mills High at the time and believe we saw 3 to 4 inches. Had me psyched for a great winter. Needless to say the winter was a complete dud.

Early season snow is a bad thing.

I read and experienced snowfall prior to Dec 15 th of 4 inches or more always seems to lead to an above average season. 

For example Nov. 2002 had a steady advance in snow cover and that early Dec snowfall. not always accurate but many times it does work well. 

I recall reading from Weatherfella many years  ago, that looking at Canada in Nov can give hints as to where the coldest outbreaks might be going on later in the season.

Of interest as well is November and how much snowfall advances here in the US including snow cover. That has implications for the upcoming Decembers many times

We have had a couple super cold outbreaks here recently but have lacked the snowcover to hit record lows and also lacked the moisture as well to cause any snowfall during the coldest part of the invading air mass. 

6 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

With global temps like this you will be waiting a long time. As well the caveat of the Antarctica see-saw effect.

Well, believe it or not ,Canada has cooled to the point where our neighbor to the North is now below normal. Not sure how this plays out in October and November .

As for precip the battle zone continues with above normal precip. As the seasonal changes start to evolve with the long wave patterns in the NH , the onset of a weak El Nino and the continued decline of solar as we approach the winter solstice maybe we can better understand the coming winter.  

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes, and lots of mushrooms. Despite the fact that I have had no significant rain in about 10 days now. Worst thing is mildew on my log home. I painstakingly cleaned, sanded, and refinished 2 sides last Spring. The lighter parts of the grain have gotten blotchy and darker over the last month because of the mildew, and this is on the south side of the house. Its kinda depressing.

In all my years here in mid Delaware ( nea the C and D Canal ) this is by far the most lawn damage from dew points and molds and mildew and fungus. Never remember a summer with dews so high and so high for so long. 

Also, an interesting look on some trees I have not seen in years, surreal in a way that everything still looks like summer,  but the sunset and the days getting shorter makes it seem strange to me.   

not sure what to make of it but the longer we go like this I would venture a guess that we experience a massive flip to cold. When , not sure.  Because it seems we are not in play with this colder pattern coming up . 

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All the cool is in the Plains and MW. It never reaches the EC. AN should rule. Just not obscenely so 

It's the warm Atlantic SSTs you think? 

Rather Warm SSTs still untouched by a real storm.

59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I started last week. Put more seed down this morning.

And lolz I meant to post that in the disco thread. Site has been down so long I am out of practice  

Are you seeing mold everywhere in the soils ?

 And, lawn fungus from this record breaking dew point mess 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We back?

What happened ?  I looked at the Facebook page and some said that it was maybe the end ?  

http 500 error is a hosting error  

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... the nadir may not be as important as the era for solar stuff...

ultra-violet radiation from the sun is never 0... it's a matter of whether the flux is below or above some threshold.   certain wave lengths of the electro mag spectrum (to which ultra-v obviously is a part...) break about atmospheric aerosols ... those radiations are more abundant during more active/max phases of the sun ...blah blah...  the key there is that build-up of those effects the temperature conductance at high altitudes --> warming in the stratosphere...  "sudden" or not, not withstanding - but it all correlates with -AO in the means (apparently) ...throwing all kinds of wrenches into the gear cogs of the overly ENSO reliant - but this latter part is my opinion, admittedly

but, said thresholds proooobably don't need to be at the nadir(max) in either case...   nature doesn't work that way - it's not like these systems in nature only trigger at some critical quantum amount of something and then drills a cryospheric apocalypse into Chicago

I wonder as we near the solar min,  or as you state we are close enough already,  whether in the winter season the lower solar impact feeds back and supports more expansive snow cover growth . 

Or, whether as you state the connection between aerosols and the high lattitudes is more so a trigger. ( as in the -AO )  causing a snow advance futher South in the lattitudes.  

I also wonder if there is any meaningful association to SSWE and the lower solar backdrop/ozone/aerosols, etc.  I know we have gone a number of years since this past winter without a true SSWE.  

14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

This is the control run from the weeklies. Monthly run comes out at the beginning of the month I think... Was mostly a banter post.

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
 

 

I see OK, interesting progression globally.

Way to early to draw conclusions, except to take note of the progression itself, and compare down the line to other runs.

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Fantasy land map posting dry run.....

 

Do you know when the next release is from the Euro for DJF temps/ anomalies  , is it the beginning of the every month or is this the normal time ?

34 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yes, please.

Crazy + PNA forecasts being forecasted in the longterm, and coinciding with a pretty drastic decline in the SOI. Expect cooler to win out finally . 

One thing that caught my eye when looking at the PNA is the always persistent + NAO , I think give or take a day, the last time the NAO was negative more than two days was in early June.

Loooking back at some recent summers , there had at least been some intervals of a negative NAO , not this summer, what  if anything that means for the winter I have no idea .

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Every time the long range progs show some signs of real fall air getting here, it gets pushed to the right inevitably.  The summer that won't end.  

Maybe there will be no real Fall this year, but a continuation of AN temps into Nov. and  then a sudden turn to early winter weather by Thanksgiving - I could wish right :-)

Maybe we pull the rubberband as far as it can go and then we snap back and head in the other direction. 

Was thinking about Fall into Winter -

Is it true that an El Nino fall normally brings on a early to start to winter threats like 02-03, 09-10 , etc or is it random, any ideas ?   

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tom has a new NAO indicator that has worked well.

Thats great, on a side note I have heard various things from mets regarding the configuration of SSTs in the North Atlantic and the coming Winter's dominant NAO phase. Some say cold / warm / cold equal a - NAO signal where others have the opposite configuration, some seem to look at the Newfoundland cold pool as well for indications. Do you put much weight on the Northwest Atlantic SST profile when you look at the winter's possible NAO phase?     

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I haven't looked at much RE winter this past week because of Florence, but it should.

I'm going to start delving into other aspects aside from ENSO soon.

Sounds good,  the solar impact has me the most intrigued followed second by the QBO. 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its possible, but you guys still usually do well in those years...just better in moderate events.

LOL,  I was referring to you Ray, and thanks for the reply.  I am eagerly awaiting on yours and Isotherm's winter forecasts.  

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that image is congruent with the modoki index, which is moderately in modoki territory. Not extreme like 2009, but more like 2014 and 1994.

Ray, do you believe the next steep drop in the SOI in a few days is going to really put the El Nino on firm footing?  Also,  seems that sub surface warmth is rising up and expanding. 

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nothing on the 6Z GFS other than more SE ridging and fronts washing out and not clearing us.  More AN temps and humidity.  You have to go to 312hr before we see 850s below 15-18C.  Not seeing any pattern change anytime soon.

Agree.

You know the Atlantic warm SSTs were left mainly  untouched because of the way Florence moved in over the SE .  Going to take a while I believe to transition to real Fall,. and when it does there is always the potential of a shorter Fall and a quicker start to winter . That may sound silly but you never know, but if that is going to be the case we would need to see signs in October and a step down pattern on the long range models.   

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The biggest surf was Thursday morning and it has been gradually subsiding since. The wave faces were in the 12 foot range thrusday about 8-10 yesterday and 4-5 today. I was out for hours each day, but I have surfed much bigger waves in Hawaii and have 25 years experience. Definitly not for beginners and yesterday was especially dangerous as the swell was directly south and led to so pretty brutal rip currents. 

Just now we had a pretty serious rescue at Jones beach as a swimmer got caught in rip. The guy would have certainly drowned if we (life guards) weren’t still on duty. 

It’s currently clouded up here and what had been a spectacular September beach day has ended.

Thanks, much appreciated . 

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm fairly optimistic about the upcoming winter. Should be enough of an enso influence to deliver an active STJ at times. Just a wag but I'm leaning AN temps for DJF but that doesn't mean no snow. I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 1 widespread warning level event. 

Still 1-2 months away from seasonal guidance giving us some believable insight on general high latitude patterns. My gut is another dominant +ao/nao winter is unlikely.  I'm expecting the strat to not look hostile in Nov/Dec as well. We'll know soon enough. Looking forward to the first freeze. 

Hey Bob I heard the forming PV already took a hit , bit unusual. 

and then there is this:

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely perfect beach day at Jones beach! Full sunshine with the now onshore flow keeping all the clouds inland. Which beach are you at? Plenty of sand here as always

How are the waves , too big to ride ?  Too rough ?