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5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I think we are going severely -NAO

You might be right this time.

However, your post is very general in nature, as is my reply ;-) 

But on a serious note, we could get a decent -NAO event in December despite most saying it can not happen.    

That would be awesome by the way, if we did . I hope you are correct. 

This might be better in the Winter thread , but it has to do with November as well. Although I can not pick up on anything ( well of course the preconditioner wave 1 I got that part ) specific for December I believe I posted on this before here , and reading between the lines maybe HM is saying something about the upcoming December NAO , or maybe nothing ;-)

Certainly I feel the warmth up there and the ice free waters, plus the warmth targeted for Finland amongst other things, and that area I guess I would not be surprised to have a -NAO develop in December at some point.   

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12z GEFS says what warm-up? Cold through the whole duration. The possible -NAO in the extended I speculated on yesterday? It is now showing up.

Ventrice stated, watch the long range models as I alluded to before for changes, as in colder risks out in time .......seems might be happening ......some winters the cold is like POOF other winters the cold seems to want to stay and when it leaves it returns quickly.  

Maybe this is the other winter , hard to tell yet, but maybe  

Models models - maybe some changes coming up

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've seen stats that suggest the kind of ridge  were seeing in Scandanavia this time of year often precedes a -nao. 

Yes, thats true, plus some connections as well to wave 1 activity.

On a unrelated note there may be additional PV displacements/weakenings in early December.

Wonder too if the big storm(s) next week off the East Coast have any effects as well on the NW Atlantic and at the say time Finland experiencing all time record warm temps, maybe that is helping the Scandanavia ridge to generate and enhances it maybe. 

Would love to see at some point the PV take it from both sides , the Atlantic and the Pac. I think that is to a degree how it went down last Jan to Feb in a series of attempts that lead to the eventual SSWE . and the bitter cold March and cold April 

Still liking very much the direction of the El Nino 

10 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

I was treated to this spectacular pink/lavender sky at sunset just as the last of the rain was departing. It only lasted a few minutes, but it was easily one of the most surreal shows I've seen put on by Mother Nature. Everything was bathed in this color, which the photo doesn't pick up too well. Absolutely incredible!

 

Same site down here in Delaware , very surreal , looked twice as it almost could pass for an approaching snow squall - as in a a milky erie sky, was cool to see 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's ugly but...there are some features there like the scandanavian ridge that could quickly evolve that into a decent look. It's also a look similar to warm early periods in past ninos in the analog set so not unusual. 

There were maps, such as this, EPS 360 that when rolled forward in previous analog years evolved into a pretty deep winter period over the East. The question of course is how long. one thing for sure seems to be a very cold period and then some moderation after Nov. 20th. Still not cold enough presently to kill all the bugs yet, that should happen soon though.  I am happen to be hopeful for once. 

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

QBO
Calculated at NOAA/ESRL PSD
30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average

-20.41   -9.91   -2.79

This is the trend for Aug-Sept-Oct

I am definitely not an expert, but my guess is no it won't help. Probably depends on how rapidly it moves into positive territory. It is only one index, but it does (apparently) impact the strat PV. When the QBO is negative, headed more negative, or positive but close to neutral, this seems to favor a weaker PV. At least that is the general theory I think. Like a lot of this stuff, it doesn't seem to be well understood.

The very thing that may hinder a -NAO early in the season might be a positive for a SSW event at some point via this theory: 

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

QBO
Calculated at NOAA/ESRL PSD
30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average

-20.41   -9.91   -2.79

This is the trend for Aug-Sept-Oct

I am definitely not an expert, but my guess is no it won't help. Probably depends on how rapidly it moves into positive territory. It is only one index, but it does (apparently) impact the strat PV. When the QBO is negative, headed more negative, or positive but close to neutral, this seems to favor a weaker PV. At least that is the general theory I think. Like a lot of this stuff, it doesn't seem to be well understood.

Isotherm has a decent handle on the NAO,  but le is MIA. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trend to suppress moisture concerns me more..especially if el nino continues to intensify.

If it remains weak, then I'll take that bet.

Ray, what is the root cause of the moisture supression ?  I thought last month a classic storm track was shown by the seasonals for the winter months. And the strange thing yesterday was the UKmet 's winter precip pattern too, at least to me, as I can't figure whether from moisture pattern was due to upstream blocking or what.   

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Sept/Oct MEI value is released on Saturday. It was around .5 last month..watch that closely because if it remains low, we may see a moderate ONI, but an atmospheric response more typical of a weak event.

See 1968-1969.

Hmm, interesting that Winter near me produced a seasonal snowfall of over 23 inches with the majority falling in March.

I see several analogs and blends that indicate March might be a big month in the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Some with the potential of a HECS or MECS. Speculation purposes only.

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think that January h5 looks bad but the ridge in Canada extends a bit further east then I like and that positive nao probably will mean a warm up during any relaxation. I could see a period where given that nao and Canadian ridge configuration that warm air floods across the Conus. But I definitely don't take it as a shutout month. It's a better look then we have had most of the time lately. But compared to the epic looking months around it on this run it's the runt. But I don't mind the possibility of a thaw period. Every analog says it's coming. And it would explain the overall washed out average temps for the winter. I don't have individual month temps but I'd bet money dec and feb are cold and January warm. That doesn't mean the whole month is toast but if 2 weeks are a torch and 2 weeks are near or slightly below normal but we get a snow event in there...and dec and feb are rocking...who cares. But that would explain how temps end up near normal with that h5 mean. I'm just speculating. 

Surprising to me at least the general wording from Ryan. Stated not much of a signal in the East.   

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The irony is someone who has been skeptical of the "cold snowy" consensus posted only the 2m temps showing "near normal" and neglected to post the h5.  LOL

This is 4 runs in a row right,  or is it 3 in a row that shows a great h5  from the Euro ?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I would guess because I know several people in my PSU circle of friends have subscriptions to wxbell.  I currently do not.  I can verify they are authentic though because I found some maps posted on twitter and they match up perfectly.  

Well then , it's party time !!!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

someone I know and trust from my PSU meteorology days sent it to me but if I had to guess the source I would say probably JB.  

It had to be JB, because I listened to his daily update at 7:45 AM on WB and he spoke like he had the update in his hands at that time . Plus he was in a very good mood !  

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we can get the mjo to keep cycling 8-2 with the same amplitude as the last two waves all winter were gonna like the results. 

Good point,  I hear that from some mets  too.

Due in part to the configuration of the SSTs in the SW Pac, and namely the still cooler/colder waters West of Aussie too.   

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nino climo argues for December to be the biggest wild card and has the most potential for warmth and lack of snow.  Seasonal models seem to back that up. If I had to make a wag, I’d think that we have some favorable periods in December.  Whether they pay off is impossible to know. 

I agree too, but to say the entire 31 days is a washout is a bit unrealistic, no one can be that sure without a crystal ball. 

Besides, at this point making a call for a warm December can still backfire, because there is enough time let for a wintry period to suddenly appear during the month, not to mention the models have been experiencing difficulty with cold and warm periods. 

Certainly would not call for a December 2009 , ha ha , but the extreme nature of things does bring up the possibilty of cold and snow sometime in December, and if so, I request a White Christmas please. 

I am with you though, that at some point we may need multiple threads on various snow threats because it simply looks so active. If the pattern reaches it's full potential I might need to bring out the OLD saying from Herb Clarke, Katie Bar the Doors !!!  

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A zonal, more mild pattern is likely around thanksgiving week. Question is how long it lasts. MJO might move back into favorable phases around that time, which could shift a trough into the eastern CONUS by around 1 December.

You agree that between December, Jan and Feb, and maybe even March that this December is the most challenging to forecast from a seasonal point of view? 

And if you agree, would you feel any better predicting December , if all the updated seasonal models this week went colder with December for some reason?

Thart is just speculation of course but just wondering. 

Maybe December  becomes a month of two seasons, possibly turning colder later in the month, however I have no comfort with that idea at all. 

Maybe this sets the stage for a warmer period after November 18th . and then a warmer December possibly. 

On a positive note models did predict the displacment and that is a good sign. Still wondering about all wave 1 actvity , and if by early to mid December things change, or show signs of changing  with the NAO. 

Also, after the dislodge of super cold into the US later this week some say that gives the potential for extreme cold to grow over the pole in Siberia and that might be tapped into the next time there is a PV displacement or a cross polar flow develops in December or early Jan.  

Wow, I have to think if I ever saw it modeled this cold in November around here this far out.

The animation is drowl worthy. If this was middle Jan with snow on ground I can only imagine the temps. 

Oh, I laugh when I see the text Ben uses to describe things, "coldest air on the globe "   :-)      

.

The SAI forecast for NA still impress me :

Looking forward today to the various updates form the Euro, like the 46 day EPS . 

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the "hybrid" talk is kind of a cop out to provide an avenue towards a desired outcome. I call BS on that crap. What "hybrid" essentially means is that this won't be one of the most extreme modoki values in history, but that does not make it an east-based event. I made this same mistake back in 2015...pulled the "hybrid" card because it wasn't as extremely east based as 1997 and 1982...but at the end of the day, it was still an east-based super el nino. I should have gone warmer. I was right to guarantee the mid atlantic blizzard because of that, but emphasized it too much.

I understand taking the severity of the value into consideration, but discounting analogs like 2009 because of that is ridiculous. I think that analog has another more important issue, but not that.

I await with eager anticipation to see your analog blends / weighting in your seasonal forecast. 

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I didn't quite understand what he meant by Wave 1 and Wave 2...Could one of you elaborate on what that means for the NAO? (And what do we want to see from those waves that could indicate which direction the NAO might go next month?)

To explain HM really takes a PHD but basically he did a series ot tweets regarding wave 1 activity in November amd measured by amplitude ( how strong ) against the following month of December and the NAO . He also filitered his data further by looking at the MEI >0 and that brought him 20 results. I believe his last update a few days ago indicated the wave 1 was coming in 6 to 10 days so now thats 2 to 7 days and he stated it needs to keep coming and and be stronger.

I just read the post above about the positive NAO at + 1 or greater for 7months in a row. Ouch ! Not sure what it will take for a long duration -NAO phase this winter.   

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree things seem to be lining up for an early winter outbreak but we need to be prepared for a pullback and a lull period.  Every analog had one.  2014 started cold in November then warmed December into January.  2009 had a break after the December blizzard.  Even 2002 had a warm up after the early dec storm until xmas.  The analogs suggest a snowy winter but they don't support a wall to wall one so I just don't want to see people going full tilt when we inevitably get a warm up that lasts a couple weeks.  It's going to happen.  Hopefully we get some snow before any pull back like 2009 or 2002.  But history suggests even if we don't like 2014,2004,1986,1978 we still are probably going to do ok the second half.  

 

 

Yeah it looks like a deep cold outbreak coming up near later next week. This looks to be driven by the PV disruption forecasted a couple weeks ago.

The AO and the NAO both going negative again in the days ahead, for both this is the second dip into negative territory. Then later in the month there is one camp taking the AO positive and another camp taking it back down.  Surprisingly there is more consensus to keep the NAO closer to neutral or declining again. 

However there seems to be recovery on the PV after this minor disruption and at this point the pattarn later in the month ( after mid-month ) possibly seems to want to go more zonal. 

So, maybe we go to a back and forth pattern after the 17 th or 18 th.  The CFS , I know it is not good has some subtle support that the higher lattitudes might be changing down the road, to what would appear a warmer period corresponding with the zonal pattern on some models.  This is being supported somewhat at this time by the Euro.  

Not sure what this means for December yet. Of course many mets have a warner than normal,  or normal December temp-wise.

Of interest to mention for us here in the MidAtlantic is the NAO. HM had mentioned earlier this week that a wave 1 in November has a higher correlation to a December NAO.  

And a step further a wave 2 in November for whatever reason, has no correlation.