frd

Not going to be happy

May go the entire month of February with a - AO. Meanwhile, NW and Western Canada will load with a deepening arctic air mass and it appears that makes it way East in time behind a cutter and then a wave may travel afterwards ushering in the arctic air. When you have as weak vortex, such as we have currently, you can go to this look.

HM mentioning the AAM moving forward.

Way out there, but one way the pattern evolves. Cold may not be an issue in this time frame. Indices would suggest a high impact winter storm might be possible .

Continued blocking in February looking more and more likely, combined with an increasing probability of help form the Pac side , and the ongoing the evolution from the SSWE and colder source regions.

Another interesting look, including the Atlantic side.

Day After Tomorrow This has overall support moving forward. Maybe a wave before this arctic blast and a large storm afterwards, during a relax period. . Initial moisture may be an issue, but it looks like opportunities will be there as mentioned by @MillvilleWx

Best look yet in the 10 day mean

AM EPS looks like a slow movement. Hard to tell thermals but guessing issues for the low lands. Jeez another issue with temps

Good advice , but this is an emotional hobby.

Yeah, I am hoping the outcomes eventually returns to what you posted here. I am also hoping for a slower progression of the system as cold air may wrap back in, but also a quicker and deeper strengthening evolution. A perfect world for us . A stall might be nice for our locations . I imagine the block and how it manifests itself leaves all those options on the table, at least for a couple more days. Hoping for a general consensus to be crushed by Friday evening would certainly set the stage for an exciting weekend. Also, looking to mid Feb it appears we set the table again .

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome. I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

Couldn't this loop offshore. At a lower latitude?

HM mentioned this. HA event.

It is interesting you say that because some Mets are actually playing the Miller A North of us game

Heather

Intriguing probabilities here , thinking more so a Mid Atlantic event, simple speculation though.

Growing evidence of real cold into Canada as Feb advances, while the - NAO recycles, along with hopefully some Pac improvement. Vortex remains weak.

Looks pretty

Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area.

Excellent recap psu , thanks ! Grateful we have another opportunity, maybe this time things work out.

You still feel with better spacing this might be the one ? This potential storm has support across several models and ensembles, not that it means much, but just saying.

Way, way out there Rated on a complexity scale 9 out of 10 . I am being generous.