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Not as much of an issue up North, but from say Wilmington, DE. and points South and Southwest we really do need some colder air poised in our source regions. The cold nearby is marginal at best. As psu stated, it adds another element to consider ( and may I add worry about ) when the 500 pattern screams snowstorm, but in reality it is only rain or snow to rain.

Excellent points. The GFS versus the GEFS is a complete opposite. I would really focus on the Euro and its ensembles to lead the way. Too complex it appears for the GFS Op.

This is a cool animation and notice the subtle negative getting closer to the East coast . Everything thing is retrograding. One could speculate if going forward in time beyond this range the negative may become focused even further SW. Would like to see the Pac to improve further. As psu posted the official reversal near Jan 5th, then if you go by HM's post a few days ago, the coldest air would be near day 20 and beyond, that would be near Jan 25 th. There is not as consensus at the present time from the folks I follow as to the eventual location9s) that impacts the brunt of the SSWE event .

Not saying there is a relationship, but this event is interesting on the heels of the SH SSWE which was remarkable, and I believe long lasting, with an extended period of very deep negatives.

@poolz1 Ed was one of the first, along with Matt Hugo, calling for a Jan SSWE. This is a rare event as Ed mentions, regarding the 100hPa u winds. As for modeling the Euro seasonal also had a SSWE modeled for Jan.

Once they reverse they stay that way for at least 10 days, however, the event is still unfolding and the entire progression will be cool to watch for implications during the month of February.

Exactly. Thank you for clearing that up .

Eric Webb commented that the long-range GEFS was starting to look like a weenie run overnight . This afternoon's run only reinforces that trend and outcome.

Talk dirty......................... I like it.

Ji would have to punt all of January. But, rejoice in February. We shall see.

I am sure that you are aware that the stratospheric warming event seems to pulse the polar vortex into Northern Canada then shifts it around so there may be two great time periods separated by average to even sub-par. The GFS NH polar vortex elipse shows the movement at long range. Also, another or secondary warming may be in the cards. This may lead to another deep dive down in Late Jan. So much to consider.

Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach neutral after being very deeply negative . Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think?

GFS did rather well.

That was one extreme wave 1 event.

Wow, 918 hPa center, just another extreme event. Have a feeling more are on the way , and a couple in our region during the next 8 weeks.

There is your low level arctic bleed moving SSE at hour 324 and beyond as the + EAMT seems to be relaxing for a time and things start to noticeable improve in the Pac. You have same incredibly cold air over in Eurasia.

@poolz1 Ramping up

WOOF also very active to say the least..... snow on snow

920 mb, Wow !

Pac is coming along. Damn, sweet progression mid month.

@poolz1 pretty neat

I love this animation, really hope the GEFS has the right idea. Its beautiful ! The GEFS has been doing well overall, so hopefully this wave retrogression is correct.

Euro pretty firm on Jan 5 th. Getting closer.