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Rjay

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  1. Rjay
    @wdrag. Here's more info on the effect of wind on snow ratio. I hope this is useful info for you. Influence of surface wind speed on snow ratio "Surface wind speed can affect the snow ratio. Surface winds exceeding approximately 9 m s−1 can move ice crystals at the surface, fracturing the crystal during saltation and increasing the snow density (e.g., Gray and Male 1981, 345–350). Therefore, only snow events occurring at wind speeds below 9 m s−1 were considered. Classifying the snow events by snow-ratio bin and plotting the fraction of events as a function of wind speed results in Fig. 6. Although the fraction of average snow ratios is constant with wind speed, the fraction of heavy snow ratios increases with wind speed from about 10% at low wind speeds to about 20% at 9 m s−1 (correlation coefficient of 0.572). In addition, the fraction of light snow ratios decreases with wind speed from about 53% at low wind speeds to 40% at 9 m s−1 (correlation coefficient of −0.507). These relationships are statistically significant at the 98% level. If considered in isolation, the wind speed plays a small, but significant, role in determining the snow ratio by shifting the distribution of snow ratio toward lower values at higher wind speeds (Fig. 6). This minor role for wind speed may be due partly to the way Roebber et al. (2003) compiled their data, using 6-h observations to minimize effects of prolonged wind compaction on snow ratio. However, Roebber et al. (2003) also showed that wind speed can be quite important when combined with other parameters. In addition, accounting for the gauge undercatch (e.g., Goodison 1978; Yang et al. 1998) may also lead to a stronger relationship between snow density and wind speed." https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/21/1/waf903_1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display
  2. Rjay
    There is. Even Upton has mentioned it in our windier snow storms. I hate using TWC as a source but the other links have PDFs that are just too long for most people to read. "High winds can also result in lower snow ratios since snowflakes can break apart in that situation, says NOAA." https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-02-08-snow-forecast-ratios-united-states-climatology
  3. Rjay
    Good catch bud
  4. Rjay
    I wouldn't call it a trend until a few more cycles show the same thing. The mean is in a nice spot currently for a big event for the entire subforum.
  5. Rjay
    Those super tucked solutions would be crush jobs for @Juliancolton and crew while I cry snow weenie tears and @forkyfork laughs.
  6. Rjay
    You're under the right impression lol.
  7. Rjay
    The wish casting goes both ways. From the giant weenie to the anti-weenie.
  8. Rjay
    As of now I'm not too worried about mixing/rain until you get way out east on LI and from Toms River on south. The high to the north is legit. Fresh cold air is always a great thing to see modeled. Obviously, if the storm ends up super amped, these thoughts will change and coastal areas would see precip type issues.
  9. Rjay
    This is our first significant area-wide threat in a couple years. The tracking is the best part. Let's continue to keep it fun. I'm glad there's been barely any bickering. Keep it up guys. You all deserve this storm. Let's hope it doesnt break any weenie hearts.
  10. Rjay
    Thanks for all your input. It's greatly appreciated and I love that your enthusiasm for all types of weather has stayed with you for all these years. This part isn't for you Walt, but I want our members to remember a few things if they decide to talk about ratios today. Firstly, it's probably too early to talk about ratios in a serious manner. Secondly, if you do want to talk about ratios, you really need to look at the soundings. Thirdly, don't discount the wind when trying to figure out ratios.
  11. Rjay
    There's some really wind potential with this one too.
  12. Rjay
    Weenie comment but I really want this to close off south of us
  13. Rjay
    For the weens
  14. Rjay
    A 7 year, 10 month bump. When was the MM5 retired? 2015?
  15. Rjay
    It's that time of year
  16. Rjay
    Took this at a red light on the way to work this morning
  17. Rjay
    In Massapequa
  18. Rjay
    Light snow.
  19. Rjay
    Lofl
  20. Rjay
    Islip reported rain the entire time but there was a bunch of white rain.
  21. Rjay
    I don't think he was questioning it. FRG gusted to 36 mph and ISP gusted to 44 mph.
  22. Rjay
    Temp back into the low 40s
  23. Rjay
    That's mostly rain.
  24. Rjay
    1.42" of rain here
  25. Rjay
    Brightbanding makes total rainfall estimates from radars useless. The red is 6" lol
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