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Everything posted by Rjay
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Seems to be a crapshoot right now but if i were to guess the heavy rain axis sets up from eastern LI through central and western CT/Mass and into interior NY. That is if the models are correct with a Block Island landfall on a nnw/nw heading. **there will be other areas that see some heavy rain but I have no idea which areas get it.
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CT is going to have some real issues with flooding and power outages. If the models have it right at this point, it's a total snoozer west of the Hamptons and even there I'd probably fall asleep chasing this thing.
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Prob would have been a big issue for LI
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I'd probably recommend leaving tn although they should still be alright at 4am barring as shift west in the modeling.
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And honestly for all we know that could be right. Anyone confident in rainfall totals anywhere at this point?
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My cone. If i had to narrow it I would move the western edge 25 miles east and wouldn't touch the eastern edge.
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Stop pretending like you want flooding lol
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I don't think there will be any winds over 50mph on the west side of this but I supposed we'll see.
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Very unlikely but who knows. Models don't handle TC intensity very well.
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No one should be on Fire Island for this storm
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Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem. So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound.
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I'm not giving you a warning for the obvious trolling but I am giving you a warning for the bolded.
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Same. Most of the models haven't been consistent and a few (cmc, rgem and euro) have been pretty bad. So I'm still not really sure where exactly this storm is going. Somewhere in Suffolk would be my best guess. Possibly as far east as Block Island.
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NHC issues the warning. The NWS Upton puts out the local forecast for the warning and they seem to disagree. At least I think that's how it works. Idk. This wasn't from the point and click. It was from my actual hurricane warning statement.
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I agree with the warning too but they don't seem to think my area meets the criteria so....
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