WxUSAF

Restrain your shock, but JB2 is all in. 30”+ at BWI. https://justinweather.com/2018/11/07/my-winter-outlook-2018-to-2019-multiple-noreasters-and-more-snow/

Exactly. Let things develop through the next 30 days so around the 10th we could have a legit chance at a snow event.

Thunder, feel the thunder Tony Pann with the thunder th th thunder!

Saw the D15 EPS from last night. Certainly seems to be evolving in a decent direction. Since tonight’s weeklies initialize off that, it will be interesting if our extrapolation is correct. Combined with MJO forcing, seems things could get favorable sometime in early December. No way to know how transient a good pattern will be though.

You can peek at the d11+ EPS, but from what I see out to D10, the EPS is much less enthusiastic. I actually think the GEFS idea is a good one, just probably rushing it by 7-10 days.

No way. Freezing levels are 7K feet or higher (mostly much higher). I ain't buying.

Hmmm...yeah, GEFS evolving in a decent direction around Turkey Day. -WPO transitioning to a -EPO and the Scand Ridge/-ENAO working to split the vortex. A -WPO/-EPO in isolation can be warm for us if it dumps a trough in the west. You can see that on the GEFS at long ranges, but the -ENAO keeps things chilly around us. Actually looks like a cold shot comes through around Thanksgiving +/- 1 day. Let's see what the EPS show. GEFS tends to go a bit cold in the long range in general. Interesting that the Euro has gone to an Apps runner next Tuesday now. That's a big jump. In either case, all the guidance suggests that we don't get as quite a cold shot as we though we might after that storm, but conversely, it looks like generally BN temps persist through Thanksgiving week now. Watch DCA dance around a freeze...

#Shorts4Xmas #Spanx4NewYears

lol it’s a nuke. Gimme that in another 3-4 weeks please. Tracks overhead, but dumps on Garrett county and WV mountains.

Euro has mid-upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows next Tuesday/Wednesday.

And now euro goes toward the GFs with a total fish.

Check Hoffman’s post in the mid-Atlantic. It looks fabulous.

BWI: 31.5” DCA: 22.7” IAD: 35.2” RIC: 21.1” SBY: 16.6” MBY: 34.2”

Both GFSes took a step toward the euro with a coastal next Tuesday. FV3 has nuisance flurries in the VA Foothills.

Absolutely. I wouldn’t worry about what it spits out for surface temps with that look. That’s a Miller A bonanza.

That’s the new update? Thats a frankly spectacular DJF mean. WOOF WOOF WOOF

Nino climo argues for December to be the biggest wild card and has the most potential for warmth and lack of snow. Seasonal models seem to back that up. If I had to make a wag, I’d think that we have some favorable periods in December. Whether they pay off is impossible to know.

A zonal, more mild pattern is likely around thanksgiving week. Question is how long it lasts. MJO might move back into favorable phases around that time, which could shift a trough into the eastern CONUS by around 1 December.

Compare it to the 0z euro which does have a storm. Euro has the trough axis much farther west, hence allowing the storm to track the coast. With the trough axis on the GFS, it’s a fish storm.

Euro and EPS have a coastal next Tuesday. Too warm for everyone, even if the far N+W crew, but worth keeping an eye on. 850s below freezing for the mountains and foothills, but boundary layer is a furnace. Really hope this active pattern is a sign of the future. Has the feel like we’re going to be tracking D1, D3, D5, and a D10 threat all at the same time this winter at some point.

I think the snowpack in Canada is already paying dividends with how cold the progs look for next weekend and beyond. Probably will moderate with time, but widespread 20s looks likely with possible 10s for the colder spots if we get a good push of cA/cP air. As for the winter pattern, I don't think we're there yet, but we're moving in a generally forward direction. I like seeing the cold air intrusion forecast with the pattern being decent, but not spectacular. AO still looks neutral-ish over the next two weeks and it looks like the Kara Sea/Scandanavia ridge weakens some.

GFS is legit cold from this upcoming Friday through the entire following week.

For JB that’s true, but DT doesn’t do that for his seasonal forecasts at least.

DT and JB both going for a bonkers winter. Lord help us.

Well said. Keep an active pattern and STJ going and it’s just a matter of time.