WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Time to shovel
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So far only a flurry in Buffalo, but I’m pulling the snowblower out.
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Euro’s quite nice. A bit colder too which helps a lot.
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Lol, just as the pole and Atlantic look to shift better, the Pac wants to take a crap. I’m still skeptical until it happens since this has been advertised a few times in the last 6 weeks only to either not happen or be very transient.
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Cranky’s thoughts
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You’re in it
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Inside 72hrs with today’s 12z runs.
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Specific thread for Wednesday before or after 12z? We’re inside 3 days now.
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18z euro is quite good apparently and snowing at the end of the run
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Wow. Cowan is just carrying the team. What a comeback.
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HH delivers again on the Wednesday snow. Well, dusting-2" at least.
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Yup, this is not a pattern for long track snow threats, but is one that could produce. Active pattern with cold air around. That said...if the ao does flip next week and the NAO starts moving as well...
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I’m not sold that the EPO ridge goes away anytime soon. That keeps getting can kicked. The pacific might not be ideal at times, but I don’t see anything overtly hostile.
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The high latitude look has been trending quickly toward a clear -AO late next week on the ensembles. Look at D10 Eps and GEFS 500mb anomalies and MSLP anomalies. Compared to a few days ago, much more ridging and high pressure over the pole. No signs of a shutout pattern to me anytime soon.
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There’s a tricky balancing act with getting the front far enough south of us to bring in cold air, but not too far south to leave us dry.
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Eps definitely has a GL low next weekend that’s causing issues, but it way east of the op still with the low. Mean low position is just off NJ coast next Sunday. Would have to see individual members, but I’d guess there are some hits in there still.
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Good thing you live on the side that usually wins?
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Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on.
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If I were to guess, I’d say the GEFS is rushing that Scandinavian ridge retrogression. I’d also guess that the pacific ridge will be closer to the coast.
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Ha, was just looking at that. We would want that NAO if the Pacific looked like that for any length of time. But it seems this year, the Pac flood is always more than 10 days away and the Aleutian low/EPO ridge pair shows back up.
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GGEM’s got the frontal wave snow and a clipper a day later too! Wes jackpot! Hoffman fringed
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@Bob Chill and @psuhoffman agree strongly with both your last posts. Looks like we’ll have chances after next weekend if it doesn’t work out, but the fast flow doesn’t encourage long track storms.
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No, gfs shows snow for us. Issues with the soundings and maps not jiving pending. How much accumulates is another question. For now let’s focus on getting that front through with enough energy hanging back to generate some more precip.
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More and more looks like northern stream shenanigans want to mess up next weekend. Also means things are really complicated and we won’t have anything certain for awhile.
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Gfs soundings on TT look really weird. Somethings not right when the maps say it’s snowing. 20C dewpoint depression at 750mb with precip??
