WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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People prefer an obs/nowcast thread now for the 0z runs or wait until morning?
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Nice test for the FV3. Was all over the place early this week though.
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Tomorrow morning
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People saying this EPS run is the weeniest of the season? Even after MLK day?
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I like how both are showing that max QPF band oriented E-W near dc. Especially since I fully expect it to shift 30 miles north to MBY.
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I love when Matt is excited about the Euro.
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If you had a mindset that this was likely a 2-4" event with some modest risk of boom/bust beyond that, then nothing all week has really changed that thought.
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Haven't really wavered from a 2-4" for our yards in several days. Had moments where I was leaning higher (2 days ago) and leaning lower (yesterday evening). Hoping we close strong here and maybe inch up towards a 3-6" range, but not ready to make that call.
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Ok Chief.
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You don't make a lot of sense. So if you want to keep posting, I suggest you provide some meteorological support to your posts or I can start hiding all of them.
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Yup, bad look here
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Now we're talking
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Whoa. For the whole area? That’s a big jump.
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Really glad the storm is starting after 18z Saturday since the 18z runs have been the best for us all week.
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It might be. HM has mentioned this on Twitter. And if it moves through the region from S to N, we all get some of it. Hoping it drops a fairly uniform 2” and then we see what happens with coastal enhancement.
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That's EPS mean for the whole run? So subtract 2-6" for our area for this storm and that's 5-10" after Monday. Very impressive.
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Yeah, I was thinking about this over the last hour. Euro has been consistent with the WAA piece and as you say, maybe improved it a touch this run. And it leaves the door open to the coastal throwing precipitation back to us. Wonder if some EPS members do just that.
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Completely agree. Nothing in that GEFS run makes me think we have even a brief shutdown period in the next 2 weeks and likely beyond. Looks to me like we have 1. This weekend 2. Small chance of a weak wave with mixed precip next week, but it probably gets sheared out. 3. Active busy pattern from the 19th-23rd at least.
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Yeah, I kind of had that thought as well. Nothing after 12z Sunday?
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#consistency
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Exactly. If you were firmly on the 2-4" train (which I was), then nothing has really changed. Just bounced around that value. It's going to be a really pretty wintry-feel weekend. Looking forward to it.
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Barely misses the HECS developing. It's just one run of the Op, but illustrative to the potential of the pattern late next week and beyond. I still think you and I would take what it's offering for the 20th verbatim
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To slightly polish the turd that is the 12z GFS, during the WAA snows, the DGZ is quite deep and there is some weak/modest lift within it. Ratios should be a bit better than 10:1 if this were to verify.
