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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    0.25” line is north of state college, PA. Pretty close to its 12z run for our area. It seems to be coming around to the consensus position.
  2. WxUSAF
    Goofy run. Looks so much better aloft than what transpires at the surface. Hell, surface looks great through about 60 hours. Confluence from the northeast seems slight better if anything from 12z, no worse at the very least.
  3. WxUSAF
    Between the EPS and GEFS members that are similar and the ICON, it's obviously not an out-of-bounds scenario. I'll hug for now.
  4. WxUSAF
    Sign me up for the ICON right now. Too bad it's the ICON. Deutschland Deutschland über Schnee!
  5. WxUSAF
  6. WxUSAF
    20%??? I count 1 member with the 3 airports <1". Maybe another 3-4 with them under 2". That's some new math there.
  7. WxUSAF
    I'll shed a tear for Bahstan while I'm shoveling
  8. WxUSAF
  9. WxUSAF
    Looks like a Saturday evening start, although Euro is the earliest with a start in mid afternoon. But it's basically 24-30 hours of light snow. But we don't lose a flake given the temps.
  10. WxUSAF
    This would be an easy few tenths of an inch if it was 10 degrees colder. Coming down at a good clip.
  11. WxUSAF
    Snow/graupel in Columbia
  12. WxUSAF
    Well said. I like the Euro evolution much more than the GFS even if the result ends up being about the same. I'd like to see the GFS go that way in the next few runs. WAA snow > waiting for a coastal CCB to possibly form. But with the Euro looking pretty stable and being inside 96 hours, pretty easy to hug the Euro and move on with life.
  13. WxUSAF
    Euro *just* misses the phase with the northern stream energy. Wouldn't be surprised if some EPS members do that and have an I-95 coastal special from DC-BOS.
  14. WxUSAF
    Looks like Euro is pretty locked in, which I like to see with ~72-84 hours before onset. And most of the precipitation is "easy" WAA snows. Lock it up, sounds like a great event to me.
  15. WxUSAF
    Less NS suppression, better s/w consolidation, some phasing from the northern stream energy. Looks win/win at the surface and 500.
  16. WxUSAF
    Bumped up precipitation at least, which is all we end up caring about in the end.
  17. WxUSAF
    Just to remind folks as the Euro is running, last night's 0z was BETTER than the 12z run yesterday we were all thrilled with. So if it stepsback/weakens/absconds/wtfs, keep that in mind.
  18. WxUSAF
    Will naturally be timing variations at this lead, but that's a huge signal. Glad to hear EPS is bullish also.
  19. WxUSAF
    Byebye Scud
  20. WxUSAF
    Absolutely it is. Not sure I can recall that sort of signal at D11-12 leads before. Maybe Jan 2016?
  21. WxUSAF
    Nice band sinking south out of PA. Hopefully it holds together.
  22. WxUSAF
    My God is the GEFS ever honking the MLK day window. Clear coastal track favored with major precipitation forecast, especially given the lead times! Like 1.5" of liquid on the MEAN over the +/- 2 day window around the 20-21st! Good lord.
  23. WxUSAF
    Holy sh-t. That's insane.
  24. WxUSAF
    That's ensemble MEAN just in that time window!?!
  25. WxUSAF
    Sure it does. It has 5 members Actually looks more like 8 of the members to me based on the snowfall maps alone. The mean map is sort of by itself, there's only a handful that have a general 2-4"/3-6" without a clear coastal component. About 8 with significant coastal contribution, 8-9 with 1-2" snows, and the rest with the 2-4"/3-6" scenario.
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