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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Snowflakes in Columbia! 5 of them!
  2. WxUSAF
    I did a way-too-early look at GFS soundings. Lift is obviously not strong given the weak low and lack of strong frontogenesis, but there's a deep dendrite growth layer throughout the storm. Should be good for nice ratios.
  3. WxUSAF
    He's going to get the WAA snows with like 20:1 ratios while you and I smoke stratus and then the CCB will give us all a couple inches and he'll get the backside deathband from that as well. Happens every time
  4. WxUSAF
    yup, was just thinking about this. I'd rather go back to a juiced up WAA overrunning with a primary low in KY that transfers to the coast. GGEM is more like this with about the same result given a weaker CCB from the coastal.
  5. WxUSAF
    I completely agree. I'd love a warning event of course, but a cold powder event that's spread out over 24+ hours will be fun. Bring it on.
  6. WxUSAF
    Interesting that GFS is showing the same as the ICON with a 2-phased storm for those of is from DC-north. WAA snows provide 1-2", then a brief pause while the coastal forms and then we get into the CCB.
  7. WxUSAF
    @Bob Chill last Tuesday @Bob Chill today
  8. WxUSAF
    Yup!
  9. WxUSAF
    If the FV3 has shown any clear bias thus far, it’s to over amplify systems.
  10. WxUSAF
    Exactly. As you said a day or two again when the northern stream gets out of the way, there's room for this to amplify and come up the coast. Result is a widespread warning-level event for us.
  11. WxUSAF
    Northern stream is less suppressive and shortwave is stronger/deeper. A good combination.
  12. WxUSAF
    5+? More like 4.5 my dude. Inside 4 days with tonights 0z runs. Don't short me my half day of improved forecast confidence!
  13. WxUSAF
    At least I have a storm to track to pass the time! If Randy would start paying me for my mod duties, maybe I could actually pay my bills!
  14. WxUSAF
    Both means show solid advisory/low-end warning criteria for the entire subforum. Huge freaking win. Hopefully we keep it up for another 100 hours.
  15. WxUSAF
    #rightwherewewantit #northtrend
  16. WxUSAF
    Anyone with Ukie? Hearing it was a tick better?
  17. WxUSAF
    Damn long-range GEFS looks tasty with the PV stuck underneath the -AO/-NAO and it leaning toward the 50/50 region.
  18. WxUSAF
    GEFS looks good around the 18th today. Less weakness up near the Lakes.
  19. WxUSAF
    Let's have more discussion on what officially constitutes a "trend" and why we probably aren't getting a 12-18" snowstorm. I'm still not clear on those points.
  20. WxUSAF
    Thanks @tombo82685! I knew the Euro Op was run at 6z and 18z (with limited durations), but didn't realize they ran a full ensemble as well. Nice to see the improvements on the 6z.
  21. WxUSAF
    Cranky and HM with a good back-and-forth on twitter this morning regarding this storm and the season in general. Two relevant bits:
  22. WxUSAF
    Per @tombo82685 on that "other" forum, 6z EPS bumps the 2" line to the Potomac and then east to Wes. Bigger area of 4"+ also along the Blue Ridge.
  23. WxUSAF
    Ukie was decent last night apparently? 1-3”?
  24. WxUSAF
    Euro has been about 0.5-1.5” for most of us the last couple runs. More on the west slopes of the ridges and farther south.
  25. WxUSAF
    6z op GFS is bad solely because the northern stream s/w is out ahead of the storm and acts to suppress it rather than behind it where it amplifies it. 6z FV3 is still behind the storm and that's why it's still a major hit. Hard to ignore the Euro being so consistent though, especially when there are more reasons than usual to suspect the GFS. Still, I can't recall seeing a broad area of precipitation in IL/KY/IN that just evaporates when it gets to us if it's supported by a southern stream s/w and low pressure.
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