WxUSAF

If you had a mindset that this was likely a 2-4" event with some modest risk of boom/bust beyond that, then nothing all week has really changed that thought.

Haven't really wavered from a 2-4" for our yards in several days. Had moments where I was leaning higher (2 days ago) and leaning lower (yesterday evening). Hoping we close strong here and maybe inch up towards a 3-6" range, but not ready to make that call.

Ok Chief.

You don't make a lot of sense. So if you want to keep posting, I suggest you provide some meteorological support to your posts or I can start hiding all of them.

Yup, bad look here

Now we're talking

Whoa. For the whole area? That’s a big jump.

Really glad the storm is starting after 18z Saturday since the 18z runs have been the best for us all week.

It might be. HM has mentioned this on Twitter. And if it moves through the region from S to N, we all get some of it. Hoping it drops a fairly uniform 2” and then we see what happens with coastal enhancement.

That's EPS mean for the whole run? So subtract 2-6" for our area for this storm and that's 5-10" after Monday. Very impressive.

Yeah, I was thinking about this over the last hour. Euro has been consistent with the WAA piece and as you say, maybe improved it a touch this run. And it leaves the door open to the coastal throwing precipitation back to us. Wonder if some EPS members do just that.

Completely agree. Nothing in that GEFS run makes me think we have even a brief shutdown period in the next 2 weeks and likely beyond. Looks to me like we have 1. This weekend 2. Small chance of a weak wave with mixed precip next week, but it probably gets sheared out. 3. Active busy pattern from the 19th-23rd at least.

Yeah, I kind of had that thought as well. Nothing after 12z Sunday?

#consistency

Exactly. If you were firmly on the 2-4" train (which I was), then nothing has really changed. Just bounced around that value. It's going to be a really pretty wintry-feel weekend. Looking forward to it.

Barely misses the HECS developing. It's just one run of the Op, but illustrative to the potential of the pattern late next week and beyond. I still think you and I would take what it's offering for the 20th verbatim

To slightly polish the turd that is the 12z GFS, during the WAA snows, the DGZ is quite deep and there is some weak/modest lift within it. Ratios should be a bit better than 10:1 if this were to verify.

HONKHONKHONKWOOFWOOFHONKWOOFHONK

My first spotter report yesterday! Elkridge 2 W. There's another guy in my neighborhood that LWX also puts in as "Elkridge 2 W". I'll have to be sure to slant stick more then her/him. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=7&glossary=0

It is, but it all comes down to track as always. West track might give us some front-end frozen, but probably would flip to rain eventually. Coastal/south track would keep us all frozen. Plenty of cold air around, just depends on where the boundary sits at any given time.

@psuhoffman I totally agree and you can see the divergence of those 2 boom/bust scenarios well in the ensembles. Relatively few that split the difference sort of like the Euro Op is doing now. GEFS has been leaning toward the boom scenario the last few runs and seems like GFS Op is going that way as well with the coastal getting us. EPS also trending that way a bit at 6z it looks like.

As with most storms, this will probably inch north over the next 2-3 days. That puts us in a good spot for a potential boom scenario if the coastal does play out. The confluence can also serve to create a good band somewhere in the WAA snows as HM has been discussing on twitter recently. But that can create a narrow gradient, particularly on the north side of that band from a healthy 2-3" to nothing. Weaker gradient on the south side, but still noticeable. Creates a scenario where our Jackpotville friends along the M/D line score big from the WAA snows while DC-Balt get ~1" spread out over a long duration and then we wait for the coastal to take over.

Yeah, true enough. I'd rather go back to where the Euro had a widespread 3-5" for us, almost entirely from the WAA snows. Less complicated. More boom/bust potential when you throw in the coastal as @psuhoffman has said. WAA snow extent also seems like it might have a modestly narrow N-S extent. Still some wrinkles to iron out. I like 2-4" for NOVA/DC/MD as well for now all things considered.

@tombo82685 interesting that it seems the EPS has been consistently more bullish than the Op for the last 48 hours or so (that's probably not perfectly correct, but seems to be true enough). As I said yesterday, I'm still *barely* good with that, but we're rapidly approaching the time window where I'm worried that the Op would be handling subtle features better than the ensembles. Hope 12z Euro matches that 6z EPS mean.