WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Yup. Probably lots of 30s and maybe a freeze for IAD?
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Non-euro models are back to a moderate rain event tonight and tomorrow. Euro edged west, but still the driest model for the metro areas and suburbs.
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We had over 1” on November 15th, 2018.
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Good chance for our first midnight high of the season for tomorrow! edit...more fully, models other than the euro brought back rain for the metro stress tonight and tomorrow. Also looks like some widespread 30s Saturday morning.
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Gfs caves to euro on both Friday’s anafrontal event and the energy getting dumped out west in the mid range.
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Euro and, to some extent the ggem, dump the energy out west and don’t progress it through. Gfs and gefs keep things more progressive so we get periodic cold shots.
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Our average forecasts: DCA 11/11/20 BWI 10/29/20 IAD 10/26/20 RIC 11/6/20 Tie: 83.6 So far the tiebreaker value is 83F from IAD on the 7th. Based on the projections, that's probably going to be the final value, but we'll see. Chances for the first freeze, at least at IAD, look pretty decent over the next 10 days. 2020 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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0.25” at home and steady light rain here at Deep Creek
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I took a quick dunk Much steadier rain now
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Yup. Everyone’s asking me why the rain hasn’t started.
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Passing game and play calling are both out of synch.
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Nice! Couple hundred feet of elevation certainly will. You’ll notice it in marginal events for sure, which are probably most of our events this coming year...
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Gfs and ggem with first freeze chances starting next weekend. Euro a bit warmer as it stalls the front.
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Foliage is gorgeous here at DCL!! We tried to go to Swallow Falls SP, but the line to get in was huge and we turned around.
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I had literally one evening last winter where I could take a walk in the snow. Hard to be worse than that. Doesn’t mean it’s not possible.
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@losetoa6 is rooting for the 0z euro solution. 2”+ through Tuesday. Major globals all clueing into a strong cold front or two late next week into the weekend with frost and freeze chances possible.
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Gfs and ggem bring a healthy dose of rain Sunday and Monday from Delta. Euro, of course has to be different, and just merges it with a big front and so the weekend stays dry.
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Overnight globals all bring remnants of Delta through the southern part of the region this weekend. Worth keeping an eye on.
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Had a light shower overnight
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North of Frederick near Thurmont for an early baseball game. Car thermometer says 37. eta...patchy frost too
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Got a fantastic view of Antares!
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Perfect timing for my trip to deep creek next weekend!
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Seems fairly ominous to me we’re already eyeing D5+ Miller Bs on the euro.
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Last day @Bob Chill
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0.45”
