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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Amazing game. I’m not going to make it to October.
  2. WxUSAF
    Most guidance brings in a midwestern MCS to the area in the overnight hours. Question is how strong is remains when it gets here, well after daytime heating and with today not a particularly hot/humid one.
  3. WxUSAF
    Snow or not, I’d expect the drought to get busted in dramatic fashion later this year one way or another.
  4. WxUSAF
    That was a lovely morning rain. Over 0.4”. Sorry to see Carroll county missed out again.
  5. WxUSAF
    50F dew point!?! *swoon* How much smoke will be with that though?
  6. WxUSAF
    As much as we haven’t had a lot of high heat, July is solidly AN…especially for BWI and IAD.
  7. WxUSAF
    All downhill to winter from here. Right?
  8. WxUSAF
    Grayson back tomorrow. Has his work cut out for him, but the team is really clicking right now.
  9. WxUSAF
    Tiniest little gap between those two itty bitty HoCo showers. Lol will it close?
  10. WxUSAF
    ^thats a great one. 6” of pure cold fluff
  11. WxUSAF
    I’m in St Mary’s county right now and it’s torrential.
  12. WxUSAF
    Look at this ring of sprinkles in HoCo. And it actually is raining.
  13. WxUSAF
    Looks good on radar. Hrrr bleeding the wrong way toward the 18z NAM 3k solution of a metro area screw job.
  14. WxUSAF
    First day I’ve heard the annual cicadas really singing
  15. WxUSAF
    Pretty
  16. WxUSAF
    Mostly just a gusty shower in Columbia with a little thunder.
  17. WxUSAF
    Well…not great
  18. WxUSAF
    Need a couple more radar cycles. Those storms are just developing so hard to say which way they’re moving. And wouldn’t shock me at all if more develop over us.
  19. WxUSAF
    That’s what I was getting at. The biggest gap is trying to close. Not a solid line yet, but could see it getting there.
  20. WxUSAF
    I don’t hate the current radar
  21. WxUSAF
    And ensembles keep a trough over us in the means for the next 2 weeks. Seasonable heat? Sure. But no sign of any persistent mid-upper 90s kinda Bermuda high. If we can get through mid-august without that, climatology starts working in our favor.
  22. WxUSAF
    Stratospheric circulation is slow and cross-equatorial mixing is even slower. So there wasn’t significant water vapor in the norther hemisphere when the winter PV was established. That’s changed now.
  23. WxUSAF
    Pinatubo was very much the cause of that +AO. I think the very high stratospheric water vapor levels from the HTHH eruption are a potential big wild card for this coming winter.
  24. WxUSAF
    Model guidance really choked on the lack of overnight showers and storms.
  25. WxUSAF
    2nd hottest then! And wouldn’t discount an interhourly that’s warmer.
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