Town of Emerald Isle posted this to their FB page.
Ok, here is the late evening update.
1. Florence is now at Cat 4 which is no secret, but latest data from earlier in the evening show a potential eye wall replacement or the eye is not fully enclosed I(see the animated satellite imagery below) This means intensity beyond a Cat 4 is unlikely in immediate future, but further strengthening could occur once the eye wall has replaced itself or has fully enclosed. Winds right now are at 139 mph w/ gusts up to 166 mph. Also note that we feel it can intensify to a Cat 5 before it reaches the coast, but we do expect some land interaction to help weakening back to Cat 4 (if you are in to splitting hairs). The storm is moving W/NW at 12 mph and the track has not changed (see WeatherOps official track below).
2. The track has not changed and even the GFS who was the most northerly outlier has come back into agreement, so there is a very, very strong possibility that the track shown today will not differ from much. Not unless all the models change at the same time which is rare but can happen. I would discount that in your decision making on leaving or staying and where to go.
3. The timing of the storm will be right off the immediate Cape Fear coastline by Wilmington by Thursday morning, then the tropical storm force winds will start to move into the area by 9am or 10am on Thursday morning. Then up the coast to Onslow, and Carteret counties by 12-noon.
Overall the core or eye wall of the storm should make landfall sometime late Thursday night, then slow down around Fayetteville/ Sand Hills area to arrive by Friday afternoon, then up towards Raleigh and Sanford area to arrive by Saturday afternoon where it is expected to stall then potentially retrograde east back towards coastal NC, but we aren't sure what happens after this. This is a zany forecast to say the least. But regardless of where the center of the storm goes and when, most of central , southern central and eastern/ se NC will experience anywhere from 15" to 25" of rain which will ultimately cause catastrophic, if not, historical flooding. If you live in a flood prone area from any previous hurricane in North Carolina, please make preparations to evacuate if ordered or ask to leave by local officials. I cannot stress how serious this could be.
If you aren't sure you live in a flood plain or have a risk of flood in or near your property, you can go to https://fris.nc.gov/fris/Home.aspx?ST=NC and type in your address to get the appropriate information.
If you live on the immediate water or water is only a few blocks away, please leave when you can. A strong Cat 4 storm can push anywhere from 9-14 storm surge into the land. Combine storm surge with a house that is being battered by 120-140 mph winds for several hours, you need to leave without thinking too much about it.
As the forecast stands this evening, Wilmington up into Hampstead and Topsail are going to get the very worst of the storm. If you live in those areas, unless you live in a sturdy brick or steel structure and are above flood plain and away from storm surge, I recommend listening to local officials if and when they being to issue evacuations. Rich expects most of my hometown family and friends in near Swansboro, Jax, EI and even over to MH City to see very bad conditions as you will be on the N/NE side of the storm which has the high winds and storm surges associated with a hurricane. Probably looking at 120 mph winds that fetch from the E/SE, then due east.
Folks located/living north of New Bern are primarily out of the heavy winds (just tropical storm force for you), HOWEVER, these are the areas that could see catastrophic flooding as the insane amount of rain that will fall will flow into the Neuse, Tar, Pamlico, and other rivers, and they will experience catastrophic flooding
Regarding flooding, if the storm stalls over central NC and retrogrades back towards the east, the end result could be anywhere from 15" to 30" of rain, so if you live in Central and Eastern NC and flooded during any named storms in the past 100 years or so, then i would listen to officials and evacuate when ordered or asked voluntarily.
That's really it for now. As I'm well aware, everyone has heard enough about this storm by now, so you should have all the information you need to make a decision based on your situation.
This is shaping up to be a historical storm for us here in North Carolina and possibly northern coastal SC....stronger than Hugo, Fran, Floyd, Bertha, Matthew, Hazel, Izabel, and all before or after them on record...meaning this will be strongest on record for our area.
State Farm nearly went under after Andrew. As long as there is open land and people with $. The ins companies will take it.
