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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Once water is injected into the stratosphere it reflects sunlight from above and keeps heat trapped below the stratosphere, which significantly cools the stratosphere itself. In this case, the cooling was record breaking. It occurred over the southern hemisphere and worked its way south toward the pole as their winter wore on towards spring. The colder the stratosphere over the poles the tighter the polar vortex tends to be. A study found that if the vortex is cold and tight over the south pole, it tended to be warmer and more jostled over the north pole. It also tended to feature a -NAO for decent periods in winter. As the vortex over the north pole gets jostled and the stratosphere there is warmed, it ejects cold air to the south. It doesn't always end up here but it goes somewhere into the northern hemisphere. However the -NAO pattern tends to lean colder here and more importantly, it tends to suppress the storm track towards a Miller A type track in winter. So having a PV that isn't locked tight and keeping cold air trapped well to the north should benefit our winter weather chances.
  2. John1122
    2.16 inches of slow, soaking rains overnight. Hopefully that's it for fire danger this season. Had a pretty big one last week on Cross Mountain in Caryville.
  3. John1122
    I'm surprised there's another one this quickly. Seems like it just upgraded last year.
  4. John1122
    The jostled PV and -NAO are signatures of the cold Southern Hemisphere in the upper levels that was discussed back in summer after the volcano put the water vapor up there and it caused the upper levels there to go extra frigid.
  5. John1122
    That was an issue in 1989. It was constantly cold enough for snow but it was a dry cold for the most part.
  6. John1122
    No mercy for the Commodores last night. People are being overly critical of Milton. He had a few overthrows but a few drops too. The way we ran the offense last night with very little short passing felt like Heupel throwing deep to set the run. Which worked really really well.
  7. John1122
    That was a shocker. 22 turnovers and no Jordan-James and still won by double digits, leading the entire game. I'd never have believed that would happen.
  8. John1122
    Happy Thanksgiving to all as well. Great day of basketball and football. I know Jeff likely has a different opinion, but I'd love to end the Kansas winning streak tomorrow.
  9. John1122
    Today was the 6th day in a row with a low in the 10s, as it got to 19 this morning, it is also the 6th day in a row for Tazewell. Oneida has 7 days in a row in the 10s. It's 33 here right now. Looks like it's 34 in Middlesboro and basically it's 5-10 degrees warmer at the other official reporting sites around the area. We slipped to -1 on the month after today. Will probably stay around that to close the month. The forecast looks like mostly highs below normal and lows above normal the rest of the month.
  10. John1122
    Forgot to add to that post, after yesterday we've erased the huge + in my area and I'm now -0.5ish for the month. I noticed Knoxville has went from something like +12 to +1. Should slip BN there in the next few days but possibly go back AN due to cloudy nights to come. The wishy-washy period around and just after Thanksgiving weekend will determine the +/- for the month for most of us. One day the models show it frigid, the next they are warm.
  11. John1122
    Yes, several cold waves hit in November and December. I can specifically remember going deer hunting in 1989 and it was snowing and in the mid 10s. That was around November 24th. By December we had a brief very cold blast around the 4th with highs in the 30ish range and lows in the low teens. Then it warmed up for a few days, and on the 9th another front moved through and it stayed cold the rest of the month until just before New Years. Unfortunately it was bone dry for the most part until later in the month. We got a massive arctic front around the 19th that laid down about 4 inches of snow in a hurry. Then upslope got me to around 6 inches. Above 2500 feet the upslope laid down a solid foot during the month and it didn't melt. You could skate on ponds the week of Christmas. December 23rd we had a high of near 0 and a low of -14. We had 6 days below 0 that month. Unfortunately the rest of the winter was bleh. We didn't have a really notable winter again until 1993. That long preamble aside, it was 15 this morning. In 1989 we had 4 22s, 3 21s, and 3 mornings in the teens. But due to some very warm weather in between cold snaps we only ended up around -1 for Nov 1989.
  12. John1122
    Chilly 17 this morning. Reminds of November 1989.
  13. John1122
    Had a little light snow over the last hour or so. Looks like some in SWVA and areas East of here as well in to NE Tn. Abington and Tazewell are reporting light snow.
  14. John1122
    We were something like +10 for the first 12 days of the month. In the last few days it's already shaved down to +4 here. We will be well BN for the month by the time this cold snap eases up around next Monday. Not sure if we will be able to recover back to AN or not, the CPC basically closes the month out with normal to below normal temps in the 8-14 day range. The GFS and GEFS have additional cold shots black Friday into that Monday and also in the D14-16 range. I feel pretty good about November closing out BN overall. Usually, but not always, a sign that there will at the least be a stretch of very memorable winter weather in the valley region.
  15. John1122
    I'm sure it will quickly warm, but it's 32 right now with precip getting closer. The models showing some ice may be on point.
  16. John1122
    Horrific basketball loss. One of those days when we can't score from 3 but never really try anything but 3s.
  17. John1122
    Ended up with what my grandpa always called a "chestnut log" snow. Where the logs and raised surfaces are white but the ground isn't. Sitting at 31 right now with a cold North wind at around 12.
  18. John1122
    Progressed to a full on snow shower now. 30.2 degrees.
  19. John1122
    Few flakes floating around outside. 34 degrees. Feels like winter.
  20. John1122
    They aren't as aggressive but the Euro and Canadian took small steps towards the GFS regarding potential snow in our region. Cold is looking to settle in for a decent stretch.
  21. John1122
    That said, the 18z GFS is a good snow event for the MidState and West Tennessee. The 12z was snowmageddon for Kentucky and the northern areas Plateau and West. So a winter storm is still on the table for somewhere in the region but we know that story.
  22. John1122
    I'll take a good soaker just for the final nail in the fire coffin. There's been a fire a few miles from here all week. Gets smoky in the evenings.
  23. John1122
    The GFS rolled out a November to remember event that run. Would be a throw back to the 1950s when we played Kentucky in deep snow at Neyland around November 20th.
  24. John1122
    Honestly, mid November and beyond isn't super early season for the area. We've had some big snow and arctic cold in the November 15th time frame. That said the GFS has been pretty consistent with a big cool down coming around the 10th-14th time frame.
  25. John1122
    After being AN for November 2020, it had a cool shot or two but didn't flip until after a +10 to +12 stretch mid-month. Then it went BN and led into the white Christmas. Stayed pretty cold for about 8 weeks here. Less so further east.
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