John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Just a wild system on the GFS absolutely pasting north of 40.
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The EPS has a nice pass into Phase 8 by late month. Wintery chances along with it.
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That's ice, their algorithm handles snow poorly. That said, it's a big winter storm East, South and West of us, so I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.
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Euro AI has a couple of systems but we're too warm and the Ohio Valley and Kentucky gets snow.
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It gets better from here.
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The OP GFS gets there as well, around D10.
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GFSAI goes full in Miller A late with temps in the 10s across our area. Around .3 to .5 QPF across our area with those frigid temps. Way out there but the sharp and poleward PNA/EPO ridge does work.
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The ICON has a slow moving bomb cutter than spreads snow over western areas of the forum. First time I've seen that solution. It happens in the 11th/12th time frame.
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I'm not paying much attention to models currently. They're just wildly different run to run, model to model. The 0z GFS is 30+ degrees colder late run than the 0z AIGFS. Recently, the AI was 20-30 degrees colder than the regular GFS. For me, I'm going to see how things look in a week or so to see if the pattern moves forward.
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Mammoth Snowfall Rates are expected to hit 3.3 inches per hour tomorrow at noon. They are expecting up to 4 feet with 100mph wind gusts. They had 11 inches overnight into this morning. As long as it's snowing like that there, we're not going to be having much in the way of winter chances.
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Thanks for the update. I couldn't remember if it was '76 or '77 when I went to type that out.
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Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6.
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I just sits there with the firehose turned on over Arkansas and West Tennessee, up the Ohio River valley pumping in warm air and moisture. Like 3-4 days of heavy rain with zero movement eastward because there's a Bermuda high that would make summer Bermuda high's jealous. Even with a massive west coast ridge, and major blocking over Greenland/Davis Straits, nothing moves at all.
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The Euro has a LP that moves from Colorado, southwest towards So Cal and then it just sit there over the Southwest.
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Gone. Huge block into the Arctic. -EPO, +PNA, cross polar flow from Siberia.
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The 00z AI GFS is even colder than 18z. Looks like it has a powerful frontal passage that plows through the moisture for some anafrontal snow, then a clipper reinforces the cold and brings a 1-3 inch type snow across the area. Single digit temps in its wake.
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Losing snow events to wild modeling misses, and coaching searches are what we do best on Rocky Top. With how Heupel closed this season, and how tough the schedule gets the next two season, the coaching search will be coming before too long.
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The 18z GFSAI spikes a big poleward ridge out west and the cross polar flow blasts into our backyard. Temps around 12 to 15f below normal. My normal high in mid-Jan is 42, low 21. So that's a cold stretch for D-11 to D 16, with the cold building as we reach D16.
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22 with a stiff wind from the south, and snow blowing in sideways.
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If we can actually get to the progression shown on the Euro/EuroAi regarding blocking, virtually every time we have seen that pattern, it's produced a snow/winter precip event, or multiples of them.
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I use freeimage.host. Just add the image you want, once it's uploaded, click on it, then open the image only in a new tab, copy that link and paste it here.
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I was coming to say that the Euro/GEM/EuroAi all have some wintery threats loaded. No monsters but active potential once the Pacific locks in. The GFS, which could be right, is on an island. It's verified horribly here and in the Pac NW over the last 90 days. Way too cold there, way too warm here.
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Way out but a big slider/snow event on the AI GFS that run. Temps in the 20s with over half an inch of QPF south of I-40, around .3 north of 40. Would probably have been a widespread 4-8 inch snow for most of the forum area.
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How to keep the Gulf of Alaska low from flooding pacific air into the NA continent. Pac jet pumps the Alaskan ridge into steroid range, and sends snow level cold to Florida.
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As soon as I say suppression isn't an issue, the Euro has snow on the beaches.
