John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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So far, the GFS is slightly west at 500mb vs 18z.
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RGEM is winding up the vort over Memphis that run.
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RGEM gets almost the entire state involved and may have been going to go for at least a very decent event.
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The RGEM is a little west vs 18z, which looked pretty good itself.
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The earlier/further west the ull pinches off, the better our odds of getting some decent qpf thrown our way. Unfortunately, the ICON does it over Virgina and we get nothing. Fortunately, it's the ICON.
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The NAM was still a little east with the vort vs the 18z GFS that did so well.
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Yes, but that may not be with every ensemble member added. So it could go up or down. It looks like it tries to start a low in the eastern gulf that moves NNE up off North Carolina.
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The precip shield as a whole shifted west. It looks like .10 may reach middle Tennessee on there. Just estimating again. Not seen a total.
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Looks like we are going to see around .30 to .6 qpf just estimating, on there from 90-114. Basically western Plateau and east.
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It does appear the excitement was a lp bombing off Cape Hatteras. It's at 984 about 25 miles off shore it appears.
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Weather next must have melted down. The gfs AI may have taken it over.
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I suspect it's going to be a big eastern half of North Carolina/South Carolina snow event. That area is the general focus for Bouncycorn.
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The GFS isn't just often wrong these days, whatever has happened to it, it doesn't even correct until the event is actually happening.
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The ICON may be trying with the vort. It looks slightly better than 12z through 84.
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18z NAM looks kinda blah at the end. Flat with the vort at 84 vs it wrapping up on the 12z gfs at 90. Probably wasn't going to get much done here.
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If I can get 2 inches from this, I'll be happy at this point. The Euro being a complete whiffer is a sadly decent chance to happen too.
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From that Weather Next run, ratio'd since temps are in the single digits and low teens and the entire column looks like a North Dakota snow sounding, I'd say 1 to 1.5 inches around Cookeville, 1.5-3 inches along the Plateau west to East, 1.5-4 along the central valley of East Tn, 3-6 for NE Tennessee/mountains.
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It's crazy to see snow dumping over the gulf stream off the South Carolina coast. But here we are where it snows heavily over warm ocean areas but avoids it at all costs for East Tennessee.
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It was ever so slight, but the Weather Next moved the precip slightly west and slightly more for most of East Tn vs 06z. So a small step in the right direction.
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Weather Next is delayed for some reason.
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The 12z Weather Next should be out in a few minutes.
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At the end of its run, the RGEM looked like it was going to wind up similar to the GFS/Canadian.
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We just need the vort to wrap over West Tennessee vs East Tennessee. The Canadian and GFS do it there, the Euro isn't as wound up and brings it further East. The Euro Ai is closer to the Canadian/GFS than the OP Euro.
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The lee side low has popped up a few times.
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The Euro remains Dr. No. It only tends to badly miss when it shows snow. When it doesn't, lock it in usually.
