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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It's further east with the Vort vs prior/better runs. The further east that vort, the further east the moisture.
  2. John1122
    The Euro is probably not going to be very good for areas along and west of 75. Hopefully it's wrong, but it's usually only wrong when it shows significant snow.
  3. John1122
    For some reason the Euro isn't coming out. It's odd that the AI is out though. It's supposed to run off the Euro and just make tweaks to it.
  4. John1122
    The Euro Ai is less qpf than 06z. For some reason the last two days, 06z/18z runs are wetter, 12z/0z runs are more dry.
  5. John1122
    Weather Next 00z has the .25-.50 line back to my area with .50 creeping into NE Tn. The 18z crapped out and never finished. That is a big improvement west over 12z yesterday, which barely had the .25-.50 in far NE Tn.
  6. John1122
    The AI GFS QPF totals, .14 in Nashville, with generally 17:1 to 20:1 ratios. .20 the next tier of counties eastward, trailing SE towards Chattanooga. Around .30 in Cookeville to McMinn Co. .40 in counties along the 75 corridor from my area down to Knoxville. .5 around Morristown. .5 to .7 along the NC border areas into SW VA. The DGZ in nearly to the surface with -12c being around 2400 feet and high humidity from there to 700mb.
  7. John1122
    The GFS has a 986 low bombing just inside Hatteras or over it. 4-12 inches has fallen over East Tennessee by that point. Looks like it pulls away NE rather than heading up the coast.
  8. John1122
    RGEM takes the ULL from Memphis to North Alabama, and it's stronger than it was at 0z. Still snowing over the eastern half of the state with 1-3 inches down from Nashville to Cookeville, and 3-5 inches down from Cookeville eastward.
  9. John1122
    RGEM looks like it's winding the vort up tighter further NW as well vs 0z. The ICON, while not quite enough for most of us, jumped west 200 miles.
  10. John1122
    Ratios are 17 to 20:1 on the NAM across the state as snow is falling. Just south of Nashville, and in NE Tn from earlier snow, 4-6 inches have fallen at 84 and it's still snowing over the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area. Alabama and Georgia are in the game.
  11. John1122
    In response, we are getting nammed, almost state wide by 78. Looks like the RGEM.
  12. John1122
    The NAM is winding our energy up over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri at 06z, 72hrs, at 78 at 0z it wasn't quite wound yet and was over SE Missouri.
  13. John1122
    A car top duster underway outside currently, 21 degrees.
  14. John1122
    Granted, I should probably look to my avatar.
  15. John1122
    The Euro went from barely touching the Eastern mountains to this.
  16. John1122
    The trend map for the Euro is west, west, west, west. I'm not sure if it can go much further west or not.
  17. John1122
    Figured we may as well have a thread for this. All modeling except the Ukie and ICON have basically 2+ inches of snow from the Western side of the Plateau and points east. With several being more wide spread and much heavier. Extreme cold is also a story. We could have 20-1 or even higher ratios. The Euro has Saturday afternoon temps 30 to 35 degrees BN across the state. We could have snow falling with wind chills below 0, and if the GFS is to be believed, incredible snowfall totals, especially for NC border counties. The event is basically 3 days away from beginning. Let's reel something in!
  18. John1122
    Thought it was worse but went back and looked at 18z, the 0z Euro has about .05 to .1 more QPF than the 18z had. I went from .10 to .20, other areas in the east also improved.
  19. John1122
    The AI was right on the better runs from tonight with the 500mb vort it looked like but qpf was down slightly for us. Euro is winding up well west of prior runs.
  20. John1122
    UKIE remains a "no".
  21. John1122
    The Canadian is about in line with the Euro Ai now, once ratio'd.
  22. John1122
    For the eastern border counties, it would be an all-time contender. 12-18 inches of powder that falls with temps in the teens or colder.
  23. John1122
    It ended up exactly where the RGEM was at 84 and just sends steady, high ratio moderate snow from Nashville East. 2-3 inches in the mid-state, 5-8+ as you hit the Plateau and head east.
  24. John1122
    The GFS is basically a carbon copy of the RGEM at 500mb, but not quite at the surface. Could be the higher resolution of the RGEM coming into play.
  25. John1122
    Through 66, the GFS may look even better than the RGEM.
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