John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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GEFS once again in major disagreement with its OP. When it did this yesterday, the OP then corrected (probably over corrected) back towards the OP. Through 120 the GEFS has around double the QPF across our area vs the GFS OP.
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That was a potent arctic front, we had cold air in place ahead of it, which caused freezing rain, the front raced through the precip shield there was a burst of heavy snow, but areas along 40 stayed zr longer. There was about an inch or so of frozen qpf total. It was faster than this system overall.
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13z NBM ice. Bad across the Southern Valley but not world ending. I assume there's also sleet accumulations in there somewhere.
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Do you mean Jan of 1994?
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13z NBM after the 12z suite was ingested I assume.
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That GFS run would break snowfall records in every southern state except Tennessee.
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Crazy sleet totals on the Canadian that run. I would love to see the sleet accumulation maps over the region.
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The Canadian has slightly better thermals but still major ice issues along and south of 40.
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Of course it's also having issues being released. But literally just day after day of snow across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.
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Please let the GFS be its normal garbage self here. I can't take watching the deep south get 2 feet while we get 6-8 inches.
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It's going to end up decent for most, but nothing in the ball pack of what the potential is for this event.
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Unfortunately, if true, snow won't be either for a good portion of the board.
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Yep, complete disaster run there if true.
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This GFS run is likely going to be way different than the last two.
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GFS is leaning back into its south look from yesterday.
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Well as soon as I posted that, the next two frames came and it essentially caught up with the 06, and is a little big larger with the snow shield on the north side.
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The GFS looks slower with the precip at 12z as well.
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The ICON was also much slower with the arrival of precip than other 6z modeling.
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The ICON went Canadian on us. Major ice issues up to 40 and just north of it.
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After watching Florida get nearly a foot last year when the prior state record was 3 inches, truly anything is possible. Maybe it's our turn finally for a crazy snow record.
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I feel like this is a trap. I'm having 2017 ptsd from when the Euro showed 30 inches imby 48 hours out, and I ended up with two inches.
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The EPS is loaded for the forum as well with a mean of 5 to 9 inches across the forum. Due to the nature of ensembles, they will usually be lighter and lower qpf than op models, as invariably some ensembles will be light or even blanks.
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Behind the system at 12z vs 0z.
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Not sure what happens that Euro run. It handles the cold bizarrely. At 12z the temperatures after the system passed were in the low 10s or colder Monday morning. Now they are in the lower 30s across eastern Tennessee. It's strange.
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Basically along 40 and south has about .5 to .7 freezing rain on top of that 6 to 7 inches of snow.
