John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GFS has zero support. Not from it's AI, not from it's ensembles, which are very wet. It's precip shield is almost 200 miles south of the GEFS through 120.
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My wife's phone weather has went for it. She sent me this. It also shows 4-5 inches for the next period.
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The NBM seems to show the most likely and heaviest snow North of 40 into SE Kentucky and SWVa. The GFS and ICON blend, shifted south by 100-150 miles, would produce that image on the left.
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I knew MRX was riding heavy with the GFS as my area has less snow forecast and lower chances than others south of me. No idea which scenario shows me with nothing though, other than this graphic they just released. It's especially funny since WPC literally just released the update that they are essentially ignoring the GFS.
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There's usually only one direction they can go after it. I'll never forgive the Euro after 2017, but this would go a long way towards healing if it was remotely correct.
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I believe the MRX forecast is heavily GFS based.
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Whatever BAM weather says, the opposite is usually good to go.
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I've said for years that we used to get 15-20 inch snows here every decade or so, sometimes a couple of times a decade, and that eventually we'd get another one. I can't imagine this actually comes to pass but dang, it would be one of those old school monsters.
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That Euro run may be the best of the whole winter and for this storm. Everything went about as well as possible today on modeling. The worst runs from each model got better. If this plays out remotely like it's modeled, it will join the ranks of all time storms here. Be it the heavy ice solutions or the heavy snow solutions.
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Not snow fall, but snow depth is 8-12 almost forum wide, with a few 12+ dollops, and some areas "only" in 6-8 depth.
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Hoth on the Empire Strikes Back.
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I think maybe a thread is in order after that suite. There's going to be a storm for all of us, and at minimum some parts of the forum area are going to get frozen.
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Looks like far SE TN and N Alabama is still hanging onto ice by just after midnight Saturday but everyone else in the forum is snow.
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The Canadian had 6 inches of sleet from the Plateau to Memphis.
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It was a ton of ice along the 40 corridor, I remember Crossville was devastated. I got several inches of sleet and snow. (It may have been a different year but I think it was 2010)
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That Canadian run was a super charged version of Jan 29th/30th, I believe 2010.
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With the near zero cold coming, it would potentially be a horrible situation. I feel you on the outages. We are frequent fliers on that here. As a mountain community, we aren't exactly high priority normally either.
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The Euro is less QPF than other models, but would still have around .7 qpf as ice down that way, capped with some snow.
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We go deep into the ice box on the Euro with that snow cover. Some -10ish stuff showing up in Western areas.
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Eventually the whole forum area turns to snow except that sliver in SE TN and N Alabama.
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The Euro is snow for most of the state, a bad ice storm along and south of 40 in East Tennessee that should change to snow.
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The Euro looks like a blend of the AI and Canadian probably.
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I'm not sure about freezing rain vs sleet on the AI. 850s are warm, but 925s are subfreezing over a lot of the areas that are getting precip. Not sure how thick the sub-freezing layer is above 925, and I'm not sure how deep the subfreezimg layer needs to be to produce sleet vs freezing rain.
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The AI was just about a carbon copy of 18z and 12z. Massive ice storm Plateau and west with finally a little frozen reaching the mountains after a stubborn warm nose sits over that way.
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I don't know why we can't have simple, nice snow events that cooperate any more. Looking back at 1996, it was spotted 5-6 days out and had winter storm watches posted 3 days out, with Winter Storm Warnings 24 hours out. That shows up as an analog on the packages today but we still have complete chaos. From a near miss on the ICON to that amped monster on the UKIE, and we're basically 4 to 5 days out with modeling upgrades that are comparable to a model t vs a Tesla.
