John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The RGEM has extended it's snow line up into my area across that it had been showing across west and middle Tennessee. It has 4-5 inches over me and nearly 2 inches down to Knoxville now. Some of it falls after the lp passes.
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The RAP is an absolute crusher ice storm for all of Tennessee except one county in Southern Middle. Knoxville is bullseyed with 1.46 inches of qpf as zr.
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The RAP gives me around 4-5 inches, plus lots of sleet and zr. It has the 1.5 inches of snow line down to 40 in Knoxville.
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The GFS gives me a foot at 06z.
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My forecast says snow likely, moderate snow accumulation Saturday, high near 32, sat night snow likely, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, changing to all freezing rain after midnight, moderate snow accumulation, low near 24, it doesn't mention ice accumulation totals at all.
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I haven't looked.
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Probably meaningless, but the Euro says I should be 31 right now, I'm 26. The 18z HRRR that just initialized off last hour is close, showing me at 27 at this hour, but the HRRR two hours ago was 3-4 degrees warm looking out to 2am. I'm basically 4-5 degrees cooler than all other modeling.
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The GFS has a .0001 percent chance to verify, but it looks like the most epic 46 day weeklies run you can imagine but over 15 days roughly.
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Not by much, but the Euro AI snow is just a little heavier and a little further south.
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Oh, I never trust the GFS. I know it's going to pull the football.
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Every run of the GFS drops 10 inches on me.
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I will just say temperature wise, the NAM had me at 33 at 10pm, I was 29. The 3k NAM has me at 33 at 11pm, but I'm currently 28. The 02 HRRR says I should be 31 at 11pm.
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The ICON appeared to be very cold compared to others models. Less of the east sees warming.
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The graphic MRX released has my general area snowing for 12 hours Saturday, 6 light and 6 moderate snow. Then wintry mix of sleet for 6 hours, then 3 hours of freezing rain, 6 hours of rain, back to 3 hours of mix and 6 hours of moderate snow to finish.
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The high res models try very very hard to account for terrain. Probably too hard at times. It's because their resolution is so small they see every hill and valley. Are those fingers deep valley areas?
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3k keeps me sleet out through 60. Seems colder than the 12k.
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When viewing snow maps from more than 12 hours out, see my avatar for guidance.
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The Euro was 3-5 degrees cooler in the first 12 hours of the event across the area.
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The GFS won't back off me getting 8-12 inches of snow and MRX must love it because they keep saying Kentucky border counties are likely to stay mostly snow. Snow here did increase on every model compared to last night, so far at 12z.
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Yeah, the Euro is a nothing burger for the eastern half of the state. If it verified, I don't even think they'd need more than a brief winter weather advisory.
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In the craziest irony, Tennessee and North Carolina are the only two southern states that haven't had a huge anomalous winter storm the past two years. And even crazier, the Florida panhandle has had two. Warm noses kill us, but don't affect Florida. It's insane.
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I hadn't looked at the GFS. It still managed to give me 10 inches. I'm 1000 percent sure it's wrong, but I'd be overjoyed with that.
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MRX has a lot of eggs in a heavy GFS blend.
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The worst thing about this, the super Euro rug pull on me a few years ago, everything trended very far east over the last 48 hours. I was modeled to get 30 inches on a Euro run and ended up on the west edge of precipitation. I think Tri got 10 inches from it. And of course all the crazy suppressed runs on the gulf last year looked impossible, but it actually moved South and East until go time. Basically whatever we need to happen, just assume the opposite will here and it'll mix or miss.
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This is what I meant earlier when I said the Euro is the exact opposite of consistency currently. It's getting to approximately the same place but is doing it differently each time.
