John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Most models have the entire forum area except for some parts of NE Alabama, below freezing by tomorrow morning when the HRRR is showing a large area of 33f.
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Some of the hi-res models over-emphasize terrain in East Tennessee. The NAM/RGEM are usually pretty good with thermals at close range. So is the Euro.
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OHX is going for 6+ in some of their CWA. 2-5 elsewhere.
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I'm at 22f on the HRRR at 8am. 33 is right up the valley areas. The foothills are subfreezing. If they warm nose it's beyond the HRRRs range.
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The HRRR has a stubborn surface warmnose up the Eastern Valley. It basically runs along 40. South Knox is 33, north Knox 30ish.
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Start time did move up considerably, I was 6 to 8 am and now it says 3 to 5 am.
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Actually looks like they did that this morning and I hadn't noticed. I guess they are not going with the Euro.
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JKL upgraded their advisory counties to a Winter Storm Warning.
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The way it goes here, whatever model that shows the least is likely to nail it.
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I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently.
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To add to what I said above, the RGEM has Joplin with 4 inches at 1:00pm est and it's going to be correct or slightly under by the look of things.
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I will say this on obs and it may not mean anything on the downstream effect. Areas of Missouri that reported an inch on the ground at 10:30 their time, 11:30 est, are shown on the 12z Euro as being under an inch at 1:00pm est. Joplin Missouri has gotten 4 inches from what I can tell and currently has heavy snow and 11. Per the 12z Euro they should be at .9 inches as of 1pm.
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The EURO, which still won't shock me at all if it's right, unfortunately, is one of the big factors in the NBM being so low. It's a desert again. The UKIE is also very dry.
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I'm actually in the 3-4 inches but that blank area is the Cross Mountain downslope area it always overdoes by a mile. That area of CC is the high ridges around Norris Lake.
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GFS really buries the Plateau west and went up for everyone except Chattanooga from 18z.
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We used to get those a couple times a decade but they've faded since the 1990s. Not crossed 15 inches for an event in the 2000s. Did it three times in the 90s alone.
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RGEM basically maintains what it has for the last two days. Really nice hit for West Tennessee and then the Northern Plateau and NE TN and points north. Around 3 inches along 40 from Nashville to Knoxville.
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The FV3 (which also does the same thing with terrain as the 3k) has a better look for most. It still does the terrain ups and downs, but has more qpf/snow for the entire board basically.
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The 3k struggles with terrain in our area. It seems to overexaggerate both upslope and downslope and it tries to basically hit every feature above about 2000 feet with some kind of downslope or upslope response. Snow fields are smooth in areas without peaks above 2k all over the area where snow falls, then when it gets to elevated areas there's a bump and decrease downwind of that bump across the board. It makes for a wildly varied output.
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That may happen, but the HRRR struggles mightily beyond about 6 to 12 hours out.
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0z that just ran. Vs 12z today.
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Just got nam'd finally. Been waiting for that. Getting towards it's wheelhouse.
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The 18z UK was much better towards the areas south of 40 than it had been, which it had been throwing a blank. Now has generally 1-1.5 inches all the way to the southern border.
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WVLT had the same thing. Showed my area at 4 inches by 2pm Wednesday with another burst of snow around midnight Thursday. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't the GRAF which a lot of TV stations use now.
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I'm also just mystified by the sun angle talk. That's more a thing for March events when it's snowing and 35. Mid February is prime snow climatology for Tennessee/Kentucky/Virginia.
