John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The Euro had a better precip shield again at 18z. Still weakens as it moves East but made it further that time.
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The Euro AI has been locked on since day 7, it may or may not be right but it's consistent.
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The snow has now turned steady with dime sized flakes. Roads and all are covered here now.
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I've been down in town a few hours, it's snowing hard here and the ground is white. My neighbor just sent this from on the mountain.
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Snowing quite hard now and nothing showing up on radar. Temp has fallen to 28.
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The EPS mean increased board wide vs 0z. Small trend but at least in a good direction.
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It wasn't huge, but I have gone from .15 qpf to .22 since last night. A few more bumps like that and we might be talking 3 inches.
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That's at least a better run of the Euro. When the UKIE improved a bit, I expected it would as well.
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The UKIE was better for the east and worse for the west that run. It's been slowing trending north the last couple of days and the Euro has pretty closely mirrored it.
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Nickel sized flakes falling. I didn't get nearly as warm as predicted (forecast high was 47, only made 38), so the ground still has a layer of ice on it from the freezing rain and sleet.
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Snow mean is nice board wide on the GEFS.
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Deepening low over midlands of South Carolina and it can't generate any qpf on the NW side so far.
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This one is falling apart faster than a Yugo for the eastern areas.
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We'll see which works, but the ICON-eps ensembles have about 2x mean precip than the total precip of the OP run.
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Because we can't have nice things, the Euro is still falling apart with this, and that was just about it's worst run of all. It falls on it's face after coming out of East Texas and slowly shears out and dies. One thing you can say, no model is going to really win this, because all of them are all over the place with this potential event. I'd settle for the ICON, which is about down the middle of the UKIE/Euro vs Canadian/GFS.
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The 0z 3k hi-res NAM is giving the Plateau area a couple of inches on the backside.
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Euro is stuck at 18 hrs.
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UKIE is similar but even weaker than the ICON. Dumps on western areas then unravels.
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Record breaking snow in Texas and Arkansas too.
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The Canadian ends up here, a lot of sleet under the snow from 1 tier of counties south of the KY border and points south.
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It has me as sleet/snow on the sounding with no melt layer anywhere. Like 700mb to the surface, not just below 32, but below 28 or so.
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Canadian track is now a mirror of the GFS. Inland runner.
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Canadian is confounding. Produces a lot of WAA and it's icy, but that WAA brings comparatively little moisture north for so much WAA.
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There would be layers of ice in the snow in some areas.
