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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    33 and snow/sleet here. Schools dismissed. Way earlier change than forecast.
  2. John1122
    MRX has a terrible track record with issuing winter products. Their logic on this one is questionable imo. They apparently don't understand that moderate snow falling in mid December with such a low sun angle, and after dark, will stick to roads. Especially since the forecast low for my area is 23 degrees. Now it might not snow very much and that's one thing, but the seem confident that actual snow depth will exceed winter weather advisory criteria in the area. It has been modestly warm for 36 hours, but we had sub-freezing lows every day of December except the 1st and the 9th. If the snow comes as modeled and as forecast and hits around 4-9 pm, I-75 will get messy and dangerous here, especially since it gets to about 2500 feet near here.
  3. John1122
    The front is roughly from Louisville, Ky to Jackson, Tn. The freezing weather is about 75 miles behind the front. 54 in Louisville and 29 in Southern Illinois just west of Louisville.
  4. John1122
    05z RAP hits Northern middle down to Nashville with around 1 inch. Northern Plateau from Jamestown to Cumberland Gap with 2-3 stretching into Kentucky. Still some snow happening in eastern areas at that point. Not much going on south of 40 on the RAP, especially eastern areas. But it's out there at the edge if its range still. That said the last few runs have been focusing on SEKy and the Northern areas for accumulation. It's a much better model out to about hour 6 to 8 vs 15+
  5. John1122
    The Euro stepped up significantly from 12z and is closer to the GFS/Canadian models.
  6. John1122
    Ratio'd Canadian. Nothing to do now but sit back and see how right/wrong they all were.
  7. John1122
    It snows my column as below freezing from the top down tomorrow evening but says best guess precip type is rain. Confusing.
  8. John1122
    The NAM just books the precip through. It's ended before the MRX changeover time starts for most of us,
  9. John1122
    Timing to frozen is similar on the 3k but the heavy snowfall isn't quite so heavy on it. Same narrow band of snow, but 1-3 inches instead of 2-5 inches on the 12k.
  10. John1122
    Looks like two waves of snow on the NAM, the early one nails Mid Valley area with a snowblitz and give BNA 4 inches of snowfall. Southern Arkansas seems to get the benefit of both waves and close to 8 inches falls there.
  11. John1122
    The changeover on the NAM is way faster than forecast timing. My area changes to frozen by 2-3 pm on the NAM, but MRX forecast changeover here is 10pm.
  12. John1122
    Looks like the NAM is going to NAM a lot of us again. Heavy snow streak from Arkansas through Memphis up through Nashville by around 1pm tomorrow.
  13. John1122
    After looking, the Rockies funnel cold air rapidly down the plains but as it spreads further from the Rockies it slows down. That's why you can see 50 degree temp drops in an hour there. Was reading about a place in Wisconsin that had mid 70s and tornadoes one morning in November, and the rescue efforts for the tornado victims took place in a blizzard.
  14. John1122
    The cold can rush down the plains and even into West Tennessee pretty fast. But the system to the south will slow it down. I'm honestly not sure if 110mph is fast for an air mass in the plains or not.
  15. John1122
    I assume it may slow a bit as it makes it's way south but it does look like its moving quickly on that gif.
  16. John1122
    The 21z 39 hour RAP is pretty healthy for Northern Mississippi and then Plateau, north of 40 and SWVA. Not alot going on middle and west Tennessee on it. Granted, that's at the far edge of it's range to say the least except for the part happening in Mississippi.
  17. John1122
    MRX posted above, similar to other WFO, model differences are resulting in big differences in precip type and amount that can fall as frozen. MRX must think the Plateau is going to massively hold up the cold. OHX southern Plateau counties are forecast to be at 33 by 5 pm with frozen. 30 miles east MRX has the transition at 2-4 am.
  18. John1122
    Each model seems to have their day or their bust. Right now the GGEM, RGEM, and GFS are in the same camp. If one were lining up a model hall of fame, those probably wouldn't all be included. That said, the OHX afd does a good job of explaining what each model shows and why their are different possibilities on the table in the area. Not read MRX yet but am about to.
  19. John1122
    RGEM and GFS hit big, NAM lesser amounts for reasons mentioned in AFD.
  20. John1122
    OHX disco is basically, several factors suggest heavy snow possible, several factors suggest less snow possible, we're not sure what is going to happen, so we're going down the middle.
  21. John1122
    Looks like the RGEM pops a low that works through upstate South Carolina. MRX mentions 1-3 for elevated areas. Unsure in other areas, especially south of 40.
  22. John1122
    Euro backed off a bit from 12z, maintains generally 1-4 over most of the Valley region with 2.5ish amounts being fairly common.
  23. John1122
    I would be very confident with this much model agreement before the flaming burns from the last two years. If this was showing up on models along the gulf coast or mid west I'd say take it to the bank from this close in, but our area seems incredibly prone to model busts when snow is involved.
  24. John1122
    Pivatol weather has it. It runs out to 39 hours at 3z, 9z, 15z and 21z. Only 21 hours otherwise. It looks faster with the transition to frozen. Eyeballing, it's probably 50-75 miles east with the frozen line vs the NAM during the same timeframe.
  25. John1122
    The 39 hour rap is running. Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well.
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