John1122

Crossing 3 inches for the current event as we speak. Pounding down with occasional thunder. About a week ago the Euro showed 24 hours of thunder sitting right over us and I was skeptical, it's basically been correct.

Lots of thunder with the rain here. Had some trees blown across roads this morning. Soaked ground plus wind gusts in the storms did their damage. Amazingly heavy drops here today. Like big summer showers. Except it's cold.

This was the 4th or 5th time since December.

Lots of thunder here and flooding is pretty bad but nothing severe. I've had about as many days of thunder this winter as I have had frozen falling now.

Saw a met from another forum saying that the ENSO state and a few other factors are beginning to look better for severe in the Plains this spring but not so much for the TN Valley/Southeast. I can live without severe here personally but can see why people like to track/chase storms. Not much we can do to prevent weather of any kind but we can learn more about it.

The local Christmas parade is Saturday evening around 6 but there will be lots of float and parade prep from 3-6 as well. I'm hoping we can avoid the severe during that time frame if we can't avoid the rain.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0249.1 Try this Jax, similar subject matter.

I'd guess temp numbers across the entire region would be similar as far as Nino winters. Moderate to weak both show a higher chance of below normal vs above normal than Strong/Neutral winters. Looks like with last week's update the NCEP is predicting something in the 1 degree above normal range. For comparisons sake, the 2009-10 Nino was +1.5 and the 2015-16 monster was +2.6. Ranges appear to be + 0-.5 = neutral. .5-1 = weak. 1-1.6 = moderate. 1.7-2 .1 = strong. Above 2.2 = very strong.

If we can keep it moderate to weak, that will bode much better for winter, especially early winter. Looks like a decent bet that it will land in that range.

Wide spread downed trees and power outages here. Power is still out in portions of the county. Rained 1.75 inches and I'd guess peak winds at 60-70mph.

Extremely heavy t-storm passing my area as we speak. Winds are probably gusting to 60mph, I'd estimate the rainfall at 3+ inches per hour at this rate. Looks like a bow echo on radar.

Just had a very high wind/heavy rain storm roll through. Winds justified the severe warning. Sideways sheets like you'd see in a hurricane, was hard to hold the car in the road from the wind.

Tornado warned cell in Lincoln/Casey Co in SE Kentucky. The storm will approach the I-75 corridor over the next hour.

The SPC reasoning for the moderate risk area. It's crazy that there's an excessive heat warning right where the storms are getting fired up in Arkansas and West Tennessee. Memphis is supposed to have a HI around 115 today. I'm not sure I remember areas having excessive heat warnings and enhanced/moderate risk outlooks for severe at the same time.

The only tornado in my area in recent times was a July f3. Gonna be keeping an eye out for this one.

10-11 was part two of the epic return to winter after the crapfest of the 2007-2009. As to Jeff's point, I think the 30 year average in Chattanooga was around 8 inches prior to 2000. I know it was over 12 inches for Knoxville then too.

Just looked, it is now warned. These things are moving almost ruler straight west to east. Rare to not see that SW to NE movement to them in this area.

Hook forming near the state line, probably going to be warned at any minute.

Two of my nieces had went to visit family in Lawrenceburg that day, they were 5 and 7 years old. The tornado missed them by about 250 yards. They still have vivid memories and hate thunderstorms.

I'm hoping to pull out of the Nina unless we can get a -NAO in the heart of winter (it has to return at some point, it's been 7 or 8 years). That's when it seems to work. -EPO + Nina = cold desert. +EPO +NAO + Nina = soaking blowtorch. -EPO + Nino = snowglobe, especially 40 and north even with AN temps. -EPO + -NAO + Nino may set records.

The common theme to March snows looked to be the Pacific being favorable. It appeared that a weakening -EPO was a key driver. A strong one is really cold but really dry.

3-10-51 - It was below normal for the next week. It snowed 3 of those days, 2 inches total. 3-28-51 - It was below normal for a few days and there was a major rain event on 4-2, 1.5 inches of rain. 3-27-52 - The first week of April was below normal for the most part with a trace of snow and .3 inches of rain. April 5th and 6th were in the 40s/lower 30s with snow showers. 3-12-54 - Temps were below normal 8 of the next 10 days but mostly dry. Big warm up and rain days 11-14. 3-6-58 - Lost record but looking at CSV AND London, it got really cold for the rest of the month. There were 8 days of snowy weather after that. 2 1 inch snows, a 1/2 inch snow and 4 dustings. No temp above 60 the whole month. 3-21-58 See above. Major rain event 3/30. 3-1-62 (almost the whole month lower than -1.0) - 2 inches of snow on 3/5-6. Rain/Snow mix storm on 3-8/9 covered the ground with snow at the start and finish of a .8 inch rain event. Several big rainers, Temps were bn most of the month but not as cold as 1958. 3-6-69 - As mentioned prior, 3 inches of snow on March 6th, 5.5 inches on March 9th. Temps BN until the 18th. Two days the temps were -20+ below normal. 3-30-70 - Huge rainstorm April 1st and 2nd, almost 3 inches of rain. BN temps for the next week. 3-30-71 - Temps below normal, large rain event April 1st. Heavy wet snow event April 6th-7th, 3.5 inches of snow from .8 liquid. 3-28-75 - Turned cold, 1st week of April had 4 straight nights in the 20s. Trace of snowfall on April 3rd. No major storms. 3-24-77 - 10 straight days of very warm temps. Very rainy. 10 inches between 3/28 and 4/4. 3-18-79 - cold snap 25-28, snow showers each day that coated the ground. Massive rain event April 1-4, 4 inches of rain. 3-20-80 - Temps were a roller coaster between 9 BN and 9 AN. Rained 4.5 inches on 3/20, .7 3/24 and 1.25 3/28. 3-18-81 - Temps were well BN for the next 8 days. Snow showers 18-20th with dustings. Rain storm with .6 inches of rain the 22nd that ended as snow showers into the 23rd. 3-26-81 - Temps got warm, was 81 3/31, rain event 3/30 .75 inches. 3-1-2001 - Rain event on the 4th, .5 inches, ended as snow showers into the 5th and 6th with BN temps for 5 days. 3-11-2005 - Rain event 13th .30, wet snow showers the 16th and 17th that covered the ground at times. BN temps for several days. 3-1-06 - BN temps all but one day of the next week, when it warmed up and rained .5 inches 3/7-8. Snow showery weather 1st-3rd. 3-10-2010 - 1 inch of rain 3/11-12 with a brief cool down the following 4 days. 3-24-2011 - 35 degree temp drop from 3/22 with highs as low as the upper 30s by 3/31. .45 inches of rain 3/26, snow showers on the 27th, .35 rain the 28th, .62 rain the 30th, snow showers the 31st 3-21-2013 - Temps in the 70s 3/16, highs in the 30s, lows in the 10s by 3/21 with snow showers, large rain event .80 3/24.

It was 10-15 degrees below normal in Febuary/March 1960 and this happened. It was gasoline on a fire.

That's close, 39 inches in March of 1960. February was huge too, with 25 inches.

I'm going to count large snow events for March as more than 3 inches and keep in mind that early reports are at 2500 feet or so in elevation. March 15, 1916 4 inches March 17 1917 5 inches March 14 1924 4 inches March 6 1926 7.5 inches March 1 1927 12 inches March 17 1928 4 inches March 10 1934 3 inches March 12 1935 3.5 inches March 17 1935 9 inches March 24 1940 8 inches March 2 1942 14.5 inches March 21 1943 7.5 inches March 1 1954 4 inches - 10 inches on the ground, it snowed 6 inches the previous day. Housefire caused loss of data from 1955-1958 March of 1960 is well known. It snowed every day except 2 of the first 20 days of the month. March 20 1965 3.5 inches March 6 1969 3 inches March 9 1969 5.5 inches March 15 1970 3 inches March 25 1971 3.5 inches March 10 1975 4 inches March 17 1978 3 inches March 1-2 1980 5.5 inches w subzero cold. March snows of 3+ became less common in the 1980s into 1992. There were 1 to 2.5 inch events in 1981-85 and of course the 12 inch event in April of 1987, there was also a 2.5 inch snow in April of 1997, going off memory here as I've not been looking at April. March 12-13 1993, Well know as any event ever. March 8 1995 4.5 inches March 19-20 1996 5.5 inches March 9-12 1998 it snowed an inch each day but never accumulated to more than 3 inches. March 16-17 2006 4 inches The 2000s didn't produce much in March. Most years nearly nothing. The 2010s have rebounded with some big winter events though. 2014 and 2015 had major snow events for the western areas that were ice storms imby. It even snowed mid March last year in the Southern Valley after that blow torch winter.