John1122

Models didn't see it for sure. I suspect it will transition to sleet then freezing rain pretty fast. The moisture races in in front of the 850 warm nose and it snows lightly on the front end.

0z hi-res modeling suite. Even they can't decide this close to the event where the edge sets up. It has major consequences for many.

JKL extended their icestorm warning all the way to the Tennessee border. That puts our SE Kentucky guys solidly in the game for ice.

I don't remember ever hearing about a warm nose warming the surface in an arctic airmass situation but that's interesting. It's 10c at 850 over Memphis but 20s at the surface during the event so it seems to not affect them.

Modeling has tried to cut straight into banana highs at times all winter and it's yet to happen. I have to assume there is something in the underlying physics that causes that.

I feel you. We had 4.5 inches of snow, closed interstates and widespread power outages when a winter storm warning was finally issued at 4am here.

The front is running more parallel than most fronts you'll see. It's roughly from Hawkins County to Anderson, to Cumberland to Lawrence basically looking at the current surface map.

Clarksville was supposed to be 36-39 across various modeling at this hour. Their predicted low is 32. They are currently 33 at Outlaw Field.

I honestly think the cold likely makes it all the way to the edge of the Plateau as modeled by the RGEM. I've just seen it happen too many times.

Even the RGEM which was about 3 degrees colder than the EURO at the same time is about 5-6 degrees too warm. That may play a major factor from Memphis into the mid-state.

If you noticed the AFD from Memphis there it said the cold was only 2000 feet deep. The tops of the Plateau will not allow it to cross in spots or be above the cold. It moves more across Fentress because elevations there are around 1600-1700 feet.

Probably the best hope for areas that get ice is that it rains heavily. That doesn't allow for accretion to the extent that steady lighter rain brings.

RGEM isn't backing off.

Not saying it's going to happen here, but normally in these cases all the way to the Eastern rim or Western edge of the Plateau will see the low level cold invade, there's just not much to stop it as it spreads across the state. The RGEM looks more like what I'd expect. All I know for sure is that it will be tough on WFO to make the right calls until the event is underway most likely.

06z GFS gets the storm back that it lost at 0z. Looks like a less amped Euro with snow from the Plateau west and freezing rain far east. Wave 1 is a major ice event out west. At this point its going to be hard for some part of our western areas and Kentucky to avoid a major ice storm.

The Euro gets Western areas with the first wave of ice, then is suppressed until the 16th timeframe when a major winter storm slides across the South. Heavy snow in the mid-state, snow in the far west and ice in the east. My terribly drawn map below gives an idea of which wave delivers which on the ice. 90 percent of the ice in the 1&2 section is from wave 2. Middle Tennessee is blank because wave 1 misses it on the Euro and wave 2 is snow. It would be more than what the map is showing for snow. That's a 10:1 map. I think it's only 23 degrees in Nashville when the snow is falling. The wave 2 ice starts with temps in the 20s and freezing rain falls for about 10-12 hours then the central and NE areas of the east get a warm nose. The Plateau switches to snow. There's some sleet in the east as well. The ICON was just a massive miller A snowstorm. I've heard it's doing well this year but I rarely look at it. It's map is the last one, it's still snowing from the Jackson area all the way to Tri/SWVA at the time it ends at 180.

Very rare case where the Canadian is way warmer than the GFS. Yet it still has more frozen precip. Has the storm the gfs lost but after front end frozen warms the whole forum and switches to rain but not before front end snow and freezing rain.

Yep, weird Miller B that transferred from the gulf to well off the South Carolina coast.

Looks like it's going to head east vs NE like last run.

Big winter storm deep south Louisiana. May be suppressed vs the 18z run that brought snow.

Not a lot but the cold is 2-3 degrees colder and further east by the day after V-day and something is cooking in Texas/Oklahoma.

6-12 hours later it clears the Plateau and freezing rain to sleet happens there as moisture is pulling out Valentines day.

0z GFS is further east with deeper cold vs 18z. Long duration freezing rain and sleet event unfolding mid state and west. Cold doggedly banks up against the Plateau and sits there.

The power of snow cover plus being surrounded by high ridges. It's 37+ even 10 miles away where the snow melted off today.

I'm honestly not sure where MRX sees the snow when all modeling suggests ice. They have low snow chances in my forecast several days in a row. Hope they are right.