John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Warmer along 40 and it switched to rain earlier 40 and south vs 18z. Probably gonna cut snow totals in the Knox area this run vs 18z.
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HRRR similar through 30 vs 18z. More snow in SW Tennessee and less around Chattanooga is the biggest difference so far.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
That storm was just unexplainable but it did have some big time Arctic air out in front of it. It was a cutter that produced winter wx. Maybe the only time I've ever seen it happen. Especially to the extent it did. -
The GFS is struggling with this, the Para is not having the waffling. I wonder if the hi-res are better able to see the cold in place? The 12k NAM is lower res than the para-GFS, Euro, RGem, and obviously the HRRR and RAP. The 3k NAM has way better res than the 12k and GFS and is pretty wintery, especially compared to the 12k.
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The RAP ends here and it's snowing on the Plateau and SE Kentucky.
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That and about .10 zr. The vast majority was just from 3 days of freezing fog and mist.
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Even applying the ratio the area over NE Miss seems to include plenty of sleet/mix. Also far eastern areas are sleet mixed along the mountains.
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RAP ratio map through 40. Still snowing middle and western areas at this hour.
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The RAP is coming in with another huge run. Might be bonkers but gracious, it's consistent.
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In regards to temps tomorrow based on lows tonight, some areas are already at their predicted low. Crossville is predicted for 14 and that's been their high today. It's 18 here with 12 predicted. Knox is predicted to get to 20 and it's only 26 there now.
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At HR48 the HRRR is steadily moving snow back across the state. The zr edge has moved from near Nashville to the Plateau over the preceeding 2 or 3 hours. Probably a little back end thump if that trend continues.
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The HRRR never changes mby to rain during the night Wednesday. The NAM is the only model that does that so far. 3/4ths inch of QPF is predicted to the south of me a few miles in the non WSW zone. My forecast says up to 1 inch of snow and little or no ice with a low of 29. What happens to the QPF imby?
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They were referring heavily to the Central and southern valley with that statement and I was so confused because they get warm nose induced icing all the time in Knoxville and points south. Especially with Arctic air already in place rather than trying to move into the area. It was just a couple years ago when I drove from heavy snow here to an ice apocalypse in the Central valley. That AFD made it sound like something that happened every 20 or 30 years there. You guys tend to not quite get the warm nose as often and tend to be more likely to stay snow northeast of Mo Town but I know you get ice every few years at worst.
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This year like every year, has been tough on mets in our forum area. Elevation differences means you have people getting significant winter weather and 10 miles away people getting nothing. So one group or another is mad that the forecast was wrong. They've missed under twice with advisories when I got warning level snow here. There was warning level ice here but not down in town with the event just passed so people down there didn't understand the WSW we just had. I think we had one busted advisory this winter where not much happened.
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The power company has been here for 2 days straight chipping tree limbs and restoring power. It would go back out every hour or two as more limbs fell.
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The NAM doesn't even agree with itself. The 12k blanks me on ice and snow and the 3k gives me 1-2 inches of snow and .10 ice. Which is the exact forecast MRX put out for my area. So I suspect they may he rolling 3k heavy in their forecasts.
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Honestly the wide variety in modeling that MRX is talking about seems to be the NAM family vs basically every other model.
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I said this at about 60hrs out about the NAM in that thread. I don't think it ever fully caught up even as the event was happening. "The NAM was just a blank for everyone that run, but the NAM beyond 48 hours leaves a lot to be desired. The RGEM didn't look too bad, but it's not likely all that reliable beyond 48 either." The GFS actually nailed that system and didn't waiver.
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If I remember right the NAM was lost on that one and never did catch up. I'll have to go back and look and see.
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Picked up about an inch or so today. The tree damage is significant. Limbs everywhere.
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The HRRR has been killing the NAM on snow systems. The NAM has mostly been pretty bad this year but has been okay a couple of times.
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It wouldn't be washed away by rain. It actually would freeze into a solid block as the next front passes and temps fall behind the system. Several models have it switching back to snow.
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The DGZ is below the radar beams again today. Flake size is quite large for such cold temps.
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12z Icon is 3-5+ inches forum wide almost. Sleet around the edges and zr too that doesn't show up.
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Yesterday the NAM sounding had my dewpoint higher than my temperature. So wonky to say the least.
