John1122

29.7 this morning. Oneida was 29 as well. Tazewell in Claiborne County was 30 and Tri-Cities was 31 and so was Maynardville, Norris was 32. I assume that MRX just decided not to do the frost/freeze protocol this year. JKL and Greenville had appropriate freeze/frost warnings out overnight.

32 this morning after a forecast low of 38.

Verified much cooler than model guidance again this morning. MRX low forecast was 40, it was 35 and frosty.

Outside the mountains snow showers showing up in fantasy land on the GFS. Obviously likely to be gone next run, but definitely a sign several runs in a row of very cold air for the time of year, entering the East for November. Never a sure thing, but as I've found and said before, cold Novembers often lead to memorable winter weather events in the following winter. It's a better than 60 percent of the time that it happens, so a decent statistical increase.

Climo wins again. Models were suggesting no frost here until November but we'd never made it past October 20th in the last 60 years. Sure enough, 34 and a heavy frost this morning.

Extreme winds today, my power went at 2:30 and just came back on a few minutes ago. .85 rain, and the temp is down to 45 already.

This frontal passage is truly a potent one. It's windy as heck, trees are down, sideways rain and the temp has fallen from 62 to 53 in short order.

Leaf color has hit the fast forward button all of a sudden the last 48 hours. A large maple that turns bright golden has went from fully green to 2/3rds turned since Wednesday.

Finally seeing 30s show up in my point forecast. Not sure if it will frost next week but I suspect it will on the day I'm predicted to get to 37. I'm usually cooler than forecast in the bowl I live in.

The NOAA winter forecast came out today, and not surprisingly, it is essentially copy/paste La Nina. AN slightly favored for the Eastern Valley, Western 2/3rds of the forum, equal chances/near normal. BN Pac NW to Great Lakes. As noted, weak Ninas are somewhat less likely to follow "typical" Nina patterns. That could mean AN for the whole forum, BN for it etc.

October was very dry, with around an inch of precip, and well AN for the first 3 weeks for the most part with one short cool snap, it had some highs in the 80s. The last week was cold but warmed up right around Halloween. It ended up around +3. November was -4 here. Late month rain to around 1.5 inches of snow. A couple of days with highs in the 20s and lows in the low 10s by late November. November started almost 20 degrees AN on the 1st and it was in the upper 70s on the second but a front moved through and we fell into the 30s that night. November was a little wetter with just over 4 inches of precip.

Very cold with a few snow events in January and a big one just before Valentines Day for most of the forum. January was fairly dry here with less than half the normal precip but we had snow falling on 12 different days in January with two accumulating events. 2-4 inches late month was the biggest with around 1 to 2 inches early month. Had two bouts of subzero cold in early and late January, teens for highs a few days.

Color here is just stuck on not much. Most years I'm getting close to a peak by mid month and at times leaves are mostly gone by Halloween. This year, we had some reds in early September but very little progress since then.

A channel called Life in the Eastern Sierra.

We aren't nearly as warm as October 1919 at least. The coolest temperature that entire month in Knoxville was 54 (Knox recorded 50 yesterday morning) and it was almost 9 degrees above normal. It was a complete dud of a non-winter in Knoxville in 1919-1920.

We may break a record here for latest frost/latest lows in the 30s ever. There's a chance, right now that we hit the 30s on October 20th. If we don't, that's probably going to break that record (likely) as I looked back on the last 60 Octobers and October 20th was the latest we've ever been hitting the 30s imby. My low for October is 44 so far. In that 60 years we never didn't have a frost in the month of October. Both of those records are on the table looking at modeling.

Saw another Met who put out a video about winter, he compared it to 2013-2014 as one his top analogs. That's two different people I've seen make the comparison. He noted current sea ice and snow cover were above the last couple of years and similar to 2013-14 and that the Pacific was similar.

The mid-month cool shot is basically up in smoke now. Relentless AN with a deeply BN west looks like it's going to be the basic pattern for at least a few more weeks.

I honestly think a lot of it is just built into modeling based on ENSO. I was reading the discussion of the 2024-25 winter forecast from NOAA and it's essentially all based on La Nina that they had forecast to begin in winter, and defaulted to what they would say was typical La Nina 500mb patterns which was AN across most of the East. But they admit during the discussion that weaker ENSO events have far less predictability, and that the forecast models incorporate the much more stable strong ENSO results at times and interpret them in a broadbrush fashion. As always, they said the main drivers last winter, PNA/AO/NAO/MJO were simply not able to be forecast more than 3 weeks in advance.

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years.

Obviously taken with Mount Everest made of salt, but I saw someone post the euro seasonal and it was basically normal to AN snowfall across the region. More AN than normal, at least based on 1991-2020 30 year normals. 6-12 inches along and south of 40, 12-20 inches north of 40 into SE KY and SW Virginia.

Still looking like the first major cold front of fall will pass just after mid-month with the first frost/freeze possible around that timeframe.

The GFS is waffling on a strong cold front mid-month. Sometimes it has it, others it doesn't. 0z had frost in the area by the 16th. 12z is torchy.

Went to a soccer game down in LaFollette at CCHS and it was delayed for half an hour because of lightning. Didn't rain at the house during that time, but it's been raining a decent shower for the last 20 minutes at least.

These overtime games are stressing me to the max, but it's not as bad as it was a few years ago now that you have basically two losses to play with each season. That said, even though Miss State is much improved, we would have won probably be 3 scores if the calls were correct on the pi's and we could catch a football while wide open.