John1122

Saw a met today throwing out 1983 as a potential December analog. That was maybe the most frustrating winter month ever in my area at least. It was bitter cold, one day of warmth as a cutter passed, then ice box again. It was below zero on Christmas day. It warmed from the low 20s to the 50s early month, and rained 2 inches. Was in the low 40s and low 20s for a day, then it warmed into the 60s and rained an inch. It got very cold on the 19th, snowed a little over an inch with highs in the lower 20s on the 20th. Warmed up to 53 on the 22nd and rained nearly an inch, the bottom fell out and we got a dusting of snow on the 23rd and 24th, it was low single digits for highs on Christmas, with teens below zero lows. Dry as a chip. The high was 7 on the 26th, 24/2 on the 27th, it shot up to 48 on the 28th and rained again, just over an inch. That was ahead of another super potent cold front. Temps crashed behind it, it was 44 at midnight the 29th, and it fell to 2 by 11:00pm. It was negative 7 the morning of the 30th, and highs on New Years eve were in the teens. Through all that week of cold, we got around an inch and a half of snow but with that inch of rain in the few hours we were above freezing. All in all, December was around 8 to 9 degrees below normal, we had almost 7 inches of precipitation, but barely managed 2 inches or so of snow to show for it, with less than that in some areas. It's the ultimate month that shows that no matter how perfect things should be with well BN temps and well AN precip, we're prone to getting shafted on snowfall.

We set some record highs around the area today that were from 1985. December '85 saw an early month cold front pass and it was cold the first few days of the month after the 2nd. It was very cold mid to late month as well. 1.5 inches of snow with an Arctic front on Dec 20th, 1.8 inches of snow on Christmas day. December ended -8 in 1985.

Now that stations around my area are starting to update for November, some snow totals from them per NOAA co-op station data. Newcomb, which is about 8 miles from me but at lower elevation, 2 inches of snow, Oneida 1.5 inches of snow, Tazewell 1.5 inches of snow. The Southeast KY stations near me haven't reported yet, nor have Norris and Maynardville which are just south of my area. That's fairly impressive for early November.

If the MJO enters 8 at that amplitude it should be there for a while, and should crawl on through the left side into January.

Started a December thread since the op Euro/GFS are now there.

We are now into December with the OP runs. The first 7 to 10 days of December are likely to be warm, with a possible brief cold shot or two. After that, we have some potential factors that would introduce cold into the pattern. A cooperative MJO, a well place EPO ridge, a weaker than normal, if not split, SPV, all look possible as we head into the period of December 15thish towards the end of the month. See Carvers Weeklies post in the fall thread for what December looks like when the Euro has the MJO moving through more favorable areas.

The models are pretty reflective of the MJO. When they run and the MJO slows way down in 6, the warmth carries forward. The Euro is moving it to 7/8 faster than the GFS, which means cold arriving quicker by a bit vs the GFS. A weak SPV, MJO in 8, a cooperative Pacific, would mean cold and unfortunately, maybe dry cold. I saw another person talking about analog years and 1962-63 was in there again for them. It was 70s up until December 7th-10th time frame. Then it got colder and colder. This year had a similar October with a late frost, a similar November, with a cold and snow shot, then warmed up, it was a week La Nina with a falling QBO into deep negative. I also saw that in La Nina years when December had a -PNA, January almost always had a +PNA.

We ended up with incredible fall colors but they were all gone by the time the snow hit last Monday. They had about a week of vivid peak.

Griteater is bullish on Dec 15th-Jan 15th for the Southeast. You take any wintery stretches you can get between mid-Dec and mid-Feb. Before then is a little too early usually, after mid-Feb is usually a little too late. Not that great winter event can't happen in both, but that middle stretch is when you're gonna make the most of it

Euro AI is a colder version of the OP at the end of the run. Big -EPO and the cold spills east.

The EPS has a similar set up, but much less extreme as is normal for ensembles vs OP runs, and the cold isn't quite to our area yet at the end.

The end of the Euro is a big Alaska block and cold rapidly advancing eastward into our area from straight over the pole. It's not too dissimilar to the post Carvers made above of the GEPS but it is a bit warmer on the west coast with AN temps there.

I'd just as soon the cold arrive around/after December 7th, then hopefully give us 6 weeks into late January.

The following winters to the years mentioned above. Jan 1962, roller coaster of roller coasters. There was a nearly 80 degree spread in temps that month. A -10 low and a 68 degree high late in the month. The cold and moisture met well. There was a 4 inch snow event on New Years, a 14 inch snow event on the 8th, 9th and 10th that led to single digit highs and the -10 degree temp. After the 68 degree high, it snowed 2 inches on Jan 28th. With the extremes, the month was about -2 overall. Winter took a hiatus in February, a few cold days and a few days of snow showers but nothing major. There was a 4.5 inch snow event on March 5th/6th and a 6 inch event on March 9th. (Back when March was always good for 4-8 inches of snow it seemed like) Jan 1968 was -3 overall. Coldest low was 0 on back to back days, 8th and 9th. It snowed 3 inches on the 9th, changed to rain and freezing rain the next day. It then snowed 2 to 3 inches a day for 3 days in a row. Finally warmed into the 60s a week later, then by the 24th rain changed to snow and 4 inches fell. February 1968 was an ice box but fairly dry. Snow fell on 10 days but the biggest was 2 inches until leap day, when 5 inches fell on the 29th. February finished -11. March was around -2 and a 2.5 inch ran to snow happened on March 23rd. 1969/70 I already talked about January, December 1969 was cold early, a little bit of snow on 6 different days between 12-12 and 12-23, then a big daddy hit Christmas day and the 26th, 10 inches total. Knox had around 8-9 inches that Christmas too and I believe is their biggest Christmas snow ever. February of 1970 was just as harsh as January. It was true wall to wall winter. It snowed 4 inches on February 3rd and was -9 on February 4th, and -7 on the 5th. It snowed 1/2 inch on Feb 6th, then 3 inches on Feb 9th. After that, February had a few more cold days, and some warm ones but no snow events. It finished around -4 for the month. March stayed around -2 but 1.5 inches of snow on the 16th was it for the month as far as accumulating snow. It also snowed a dusting on April 4th and 15th that year.

I'll look more at the remainder of those winters later tonight. I'm about to go to the Tennessee game. I will say that January of 1970 was extremely cold and snowy. We were below zero 7 times, and in the single digits 5 more times for lows. Not just -1 either. -10s at times. We had 3 days below -10 and 20 days of snow on the ground.

12-7-1961 was two days after we hit 65 degrees, the warmest temperature of the month. It bounced around a little for the next few weeks. It was 38/13 on the 9th. It was 59/46 on the 12th as a cold front approached. It was 60 on the 13th but the low was 19 just before midnight. It was in the 30s for the high on the 14th. It warmed through the 20th. Christmas was cold, with an unofficial White Christmas, since it was 3/4ths inch of snow and not one inch. A major cold front passed on the 27th, which briefly saw warming ahead of the front. From 33 for the high on the 26th, up to 52 on the 27th. An Arctic front passed and squeezed out 1.5 inches of snow with a high of 27 on the 28th. It was below 0 the next two mornings. It warmed to 34 on New Years eve and snowed 4 inches. 1967 it was the start of almost two weeks of well AN temps. It flipped two days before Christmas, with a high of 39 on the 23rd. (It was 69 on the 20th). Christmas was 40s/20s. Big cold arrived just after Christmas. 30s and 10s. 8 inches of snow on December 28th. 30s and single digit lows to close the year. November 1969 it was basically normal temps for the period with a quick cold/snow system on the 14th. It snowed 3 inches. The low was 9 on the 15th. We rode the roller coaster between normal and below normal temps the rest of the month. A big rain system ended as snow on the 19th/20th and it covered the ground. November ended cold, around 10 degrees below normal the last couple of days.

That happened in the 1962-63 winter. It's England's coldest winter since the little Ice Age. Major +PNA/-EPO combo in December and January. -10 to -20 temps in mid December here and nearly half a foot of snow on Christmas eve.

I'm currently at 29.5 degrees, around 10 miles away as the crow flies at the Jacksboro airport it's 41. I noticed it was 43 in Knoxville. A simple reminder that where you live can really affect heating costs!

Looks like my snow will survive the day in the shady/north facing areas. It's only made it to 40 today and this is about peak sun here this time of year. It will be behind the mountains to my west by 3pm.

I was out on a muzzleloader hunt when it started that afternoon. I didn't even know it was supposed to snow that I can recall. (no internet back then). I can distinctly remember my grandpa stating it was his first white Halloween that evening when around 3 inches had fallen. In 1995 we got dusting in mid-October. The top of the mountains around here got more, I recall driving on top of Cross Mountain that night in moderate snow with around 1/2 inch on the ground. It was either October 18th or 19th.

Made it down to 18 degrees this morning.

The event today is probably notable enough to go here. MRX claimed it was 2 days shy of the 2nd earliest snowfall ever in Knoxville. They claimed on Facebook that Tri didn't see measurable snow Halloween 1993. I am certain that isn't true. Records show 1.3 inches for Tri on October 31st 1993. I know there was close to 3 inches here, Oneida and Tazewell. I would guess the 1.3 is probably light for Tri. I know for sure Tri got more than a trace Halloween 1993. However, it's a rare early November day to see snow fall essentially all day long with highs that stay below 35 for most of us, and 20s for some of us. I'd say that 2+ inches of snow fell over most of the areas that got the bands, but it didn't quite manage to stick to any depth due to the nature of it. Either way, early November snow isn't common these days.

Steady snowfall since dark. Not showing on radar but consistent nickels falling.

I had two hit like that, each lasting about 20 minutes, about 5 minutes apart and that spurred most of my accumulation.

Back to back bands without sun dropped 3/4ths of an inch. After the second band the sun returned. Cloudy again now with another band minutes away.