John1122

Another long duration freezing rain event on the AI from the Plateau and points west. I hope we can get a favorable trend with it but it locks on like a dog with a bone and doesn't often waiver much. And for better or worse it usually ends up closer to actual events than other models. That seems especially true inside d5.

With how abhorrent data collection and retention is for our area, that's a huge red flag.

The AI GFS is not our friend. Major warming issues.

I've not seen an output. I just saw that I dip into the 20s somewhere between 138 and 144, and remain there as the precip falls. The 850s were so warm I assumed freezing rain instead of sleet.

That Euro AI run had me in the 20s with something like 1.5 inches of qpf, mostly ice I assume since 850s were screaming.

Not surprised that Feb 96 was one.

It's arguably the most severe winter event in Tennessee Valley history imo. Almost 1985 cold, almost 1993 level snow, and apocalyptic ice/sleet in Miss/Alabama, S Tennessee.

Feb 1-2nd 1996.

The 1045 over Minnesota is a classic winter storm set up here and the Euro reflects that. Our biggest winter storms very often have extreme cold outbreaks in Minnesota.

The Euro is essentially Feb 2nd 1996.

The 12z GFS is nightmare fuel for mby. Fortunately it's the worst model on the planet currently.

The GFS(old unfaithful), through the same time frame as the Icon, has a light event with maybe snow this coming Thursday (higher elevations mainly). Then a epic rain storm (it will nail that from a week out), with a 1057 HP coming behind it down from Canada that will no doubt suppress things down to another WSW scenario in the deep south (south Georgia is under a winter storm warning now, their second in 11 months).

Icon buries Kentucky north of Daniel Boone,(shocker) gives us ice and throws a few crumbs our way (N of 40 of course) after the main event. (The crumbs would still be out best event this winter.)

Looks like a few inches around 3000 feet and up on Cross Mountain. Ended up at 31 here this morning but barely had half an inch. Just too little moisture here. I actually think the angle caused some downsloping off Cross Mountain.

I just discount it no matter what it shows this season. I have to assume budget cuts have affected data collection and it's affected American modeling. They've been bad this winter so far.

The Tennessee basketball game was the sports equivalent to that Euro run.

I'm going to simply hope the Euro Ai, which has been really great, is correct. The Euro would probably cause me to check out for winter if it happened.

All snow here now but not as heavy as Shocker is seeing.

Special Weather Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 TNZ012>018-041-043>047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-171500- Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi- Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell- Washington VA- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 154 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...Light Snow Accumulations Possible Saturday Morning... Periods of light to moderate snow showers will lead to a quick 1 to 2 inches of accumulation in some locations Saturday morning. The most likely locations to receive snow accumulation will be elevations above 2000 feet. Highest mountain peaks could see isolated totals near 3 inches. A dusting up to one inch will be possible in lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Any accumulations of snow are expected to be light. However, driving and walking may be difficult on some untreated roadways and sidewalks. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities. If traveling, slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. $$

It's finally started reaching the ground here, it's now 35 with rain and snow mixed. Crazy how long it took to start reaching the ground here.

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs. The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away. The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us. The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10. The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.

The models that showed this just drying up imby are spot on. Their thermals were off, but the dryness was perfect. It's barely sprinkled here so far. Temp has fallen to 38.

Waa is screaming. It was clear and dropped to 33 just after dark. Now it's 44.