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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material.
  2. John1122
    My forecast remains less than an inch. All modeling has me at 3-5 inches except the UKIE, the NBM and some junk cams that stink beyond 12 hours.
  3. John1122
    NBM has upped me to 1.5 inches! After looking they used the 12z Euro ens for the 00z NBM.
  4. John1122
    They also added Union and Claiborne to the WSW. I suspect they NBM finally got the 06z Euro Ens data.
  5. John1122
    Euro basically maintains its last 3 runs.
  6. John1122
    The local EMS page is running MRX's 1 inch graphic.
  7. John1122
    If the Euro doesn't just fall flat for us tonight, I'll be fairly confident in a 3 to 5 inch event for me, with higher amounts east of 75, maybe 10+ in SW Va and NC border areas. I hope for a few inches for Nashville and hope Chattanooga can cash in too.
  8. John1122
    It was a bad bad model last storm. It kept showing heavy snow here when actual good models had long showed the warm nose was on the wall. I'm honestly mystified that forecasters lean that heavily into it. It may eventually be right, but not using the hands down best weather model on the planet's Op is just crazy. Instead as you get closer it relies more and more on shaky models. Giving a large weight to the HRRR at 20+ hours is some wild work.
  9. John1122
    While it is hopefully correct since it matches all other modeling at this point, the RAP struggles at range.
  10. John1122
    Yes and it confirmed I was correct. It doesn't use the Euro op. It uses the 50 individual members and it was using old ones for the run. I selected hr 42 6hr snowfall, and it used the hour 60 panels of the ensembles for the forecast.
  11. John1122
    I've seen snow here last for 12 hours after models stop showing it in these super cold situations with a saturated low dgz. I've seen some analogs to Christmas 2010, that happened here then. I ended up with about 8 inches of powder because it just snowed about 1/4th inch an hour, hour after hour after hour.
  12. John1122
    The 0z NAM even gives Nashville 1-2 inches of snow. So the mid-state may still be in this one.
  13. John1122
    So far, the RGEM and Canadian have shown that outcome, the longest, then the GFS, but the GFS faltered some earlier today. All modeling has folded towards the Canadian suite as we approach the event.
  14. John1122
    Maybe the UKIE. It looks like for snowfall they use individual ensemble members from the GEFS and Euro, the Rap, the HRRR, the SREF, all the CAMs from the NAM nest, and a few others like that. It's amazing really, because to me, not using the OP Euro is mind blowing.
  15. John1122
    Well, for some reason when I select the 00z Jan 30th 2026 NBM 6 hr snow fall at hr 36, it says it's using model runs from Dec 17, 2025 on the NBM dashboard. So I'm not sure which runs of what model they are using but I can't find any model that gives me a half an inch besides the UK.
  16. John1122
    The 0z NBM was pretty much a repeat of the 18z. Gonna see what models they used. It literally has 1/2 inch for me.
  17. John1122
    I'll say this. I have rarely seen the Euro bust badly from 24-36 hours out. Granted, it's normally being dr no at this range. But it's normally excellent with QPF at this distance. Also keep in mind, the Euro is a high resolution model essentially. It's resolution is better than the 12k nam by quite a bit.
  18. John1122
    I don't know why it's so far behind. I'd heard it was one cycle, but they used the Euro from 3 cycles back, and the GEFS from 2 back, plus the SREF/RAP and a few others. I'm not even sure if they used the NAM at all, or the OP Euro or OP GFS.
  19. John1122
    It's because they used many of the 0z Euro ensembles for that 18z NBM and the 0z Euro was very dry compared to all runs today.
  20. John1122
    The snow map MRX released is the 18z NBM. It doesn't have today's 06z, 12z, or 18z Euro in it. It has the 0z data.
  21. John1122
    The Euro looks good. Headed to a basketball game. No school but the tournament rolls on.
  22. John1122
    It's possible, there's a mountain to my SE that rises about 900 feet above me.
  23. John1122
    That looks like an AI version of the GFS ensemble.
  24. John1122
    Now WVLT says my area will get a dusting. So I take back everything positive I said about him.
  25. John1122
    The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS.
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