John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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I'm skeptical of how much warming reaches the surface. I've seen mountain tops in the 50s and valley temps near freezing in these set ups. Seeing the cold get completely scoured with ice on the ground isn't terribly common.
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06z RAP has snow all the way down to the southern Valley. The 1 inch line is down to near Cleveland and Hixson. 1.5 to 2 inches around most of East Tennessee around 40, 3-5 in the mid-state.
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My forecast updated a few minutes ago, now to 2-4 inches of snow/sleet, and .25 ice. Earlier this evening it had changed to 1.5 inches of snow/sleet, with .4 to .6 ice.
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30 minutes later, skies cleared and it's now 21.2, dp 6. -
Euro AI has almost 2 inches of snow to downtown Knoxville now. Snow is shifting south across all modeling as we get closer to the event. Keep in mind, the Euro is a high resolution model, higher than the NAM for instance.
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Currently 23.4 degrees. Dew point is 8.
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At 12z it was riding the Tennessee/Kentucky border. At 0z it shows 1.5 inches down to Knoxville. It's the planned replacement model for the NAM and HRRR.
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The RUFUS really moved south with snow at 18 and 00z
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The 21z RAP was insane from the west side of tne eastern valley, and back into the midstate. It looked like the crazy Canadian run from a day or so ago.
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Current observation. People are losing their minds. Multiple gas stations in LaFollette are out of fuel. I was headed to a movie and dinner in West Knox and went to fill up at a station. I was only able to get 57 cents mid grade. No regular. A guy beside me was filling up 10 5 gallon cans with premium. I was mystified. We've faced much worse many times over the years. I blame the social media people who deal only in extremes to.get more engagement.
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We're down 9 degrees the last hour.
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Cold rush is happening here. Very gusty and cold N winds have started.
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Of course the HRRR looks like it has some weird low that goes from the Apps to the midstate.
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Mid and western areas are just a disaster area most likely if it's correct.
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The HRRR crushes the 75 corridor from Loudon County up to my area.
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The Canadian is a beast too, but of course most of the forum area is missed. so we sit in a light snow/snow hole while there's 12+ inch totals to our north, south, east and west.
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MRX Snow/Ice maps. They apparently see the downslope and cold banking along the Plateau. You can look at this and probably guess Advisory vs Warning if they ever actually get around to it.
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Now the GFS gives southern Louisiana across Mobile, and all of the Florida panhandle 8-12 inches of snow with 0 warm nose issues 150 miles north of the low. Yet here we see 850s shoot to 50 degrees with a low 1000 miles south of us. It finishes off with a band of ocean effect snow that sends 2-4 inches from Tampa Bay down towards south Central Florida. While this clearly shows that the GFS probably needs to be decommissioned and a new model launched in its place, I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.
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My forecast now calls for 2-4 inches of snow, plus .2-.4 zr. No warning issued though.
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The 3k NAM drops over two inches of zr over Holston.
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The RGEM has extended it's snow line up into my area across that it had been showing across west and middle Tennessee. It has 4-5 inches over me and nearly 2 inches down to Knoxville now. Some of it falls after the lp passes.
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The RAP is an absolute crusher ice storm for all of Tennessee except one county in Southern Middle. Knoxville is bullseyed with 1.46 inches of qpf as zr.
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The RAP gives me around 4-5 inches, plus lots of sleet and zr. It has the 1.5 inches of snow line down to 40 in Knoxville.
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The GFS gives me a foot at 06z.
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My forecast says snow likely, moderate snow accumulation Saturday, high near 32, sat night snow likely, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, changing to all freezing rain after midnight, moderate snow accumulation, low near 24, it doesn't mention ice accumulation totals at all.
