John1122

The WPO has been negative through our cold snap since late November. It was deeply negative a couple of days ago, which is one of the reasons we got this big cold snap the last couple of days. It looks like it goes + in about a week on the GFS and it's positive on Christmas. Which means warm east. It flips back negative towards the end of the run on the GFS. The aleutian ridge moves east over Alaska and could be working towards a +PNA, but it could be a headfake.

-28 with 9.5 inches of snow on the ground. -2 high temp. It snowed 4 inches, then snow showers for a couple days, then 8.5 on the 21st. It got up to 37 one of the days or we'd have had 12-13 inches on the ground. That would have probably produced -30s here.

According to the paper, the Aleutian high contributed to the SSW event on December 30th, 1984.

During that AH period in 1984, we were cold a few days after it formed, had a light snow event, highs in the 20s and single digit lows. Then the rest of December except for a couple of days, was very warm. We were in the 70s a week after the single digits and back in the 70s a few days after Christmas, with plenty of 60s in between. That continued into early January and the AH finally started breaking down and it flipped cold, then it flipped exceptionally cold.

Unfortunately they are notoriously hard to discharge. On average, they persist for 33 days in winter, but can go longer. About 60 percent of the time they lead to a split or displacement of the Polar Vortex, and over 95 percent of the time an early AH saw the PV disturbed later in the season. A paper I read about them noted that there could be a connection to extreme weather after they break down. They used December '84 as an example. One formed on December 3rd, the PV was disturbed on December 30th, and the AH dissolved on January 4th 1985.

Went to 5 this morning. High today has been 33.

Currently at 7 degrees, still a little more time to go a little lower.

This is the station closest to me that same date.

This is the 2nd snow in Pennington Gap in January 84. There is a 3 inch two days before.

The official record for Pennington Gap shows 2 events, a 3 and 4 inch event two days later. No idea if it's accurate or not. Shows them on the 16th and 18th. The cold front passage was one for the books. It was 63 here one day and had fallen to 1 the next day at midnight.

That's surprising to me. We had a 3 inch, 5 inch and 8 inch event in January and some -10s on multiple days. Another 7 inch event in early February with a -8 after it.

This continues to be so much like a warmer version of Dec 1983. The roller coaster temps, the light snow events with most precip falling as rain during warm ups. 1984 was a great Jan and Feb. Hopefully that is similar as well.

High was at midnight, but my afternoon hi is 18 degrees.

Downtown LaFollette during the NW flow earlier today while I was out.

18 with light snow falling this morning. Have a dusting out there.

Down to 34 with a mix falling here.

The official BOM observed for the last 3 days available (8th, 9th, 10th) has been COD/6, COD/5, and back to COD/6, but headed towards 8 (hopefully). It's 3 days behind so it could be in 8 now.

I use freeimage.host and then get the link.

Last night when it really started accumulating quickly.

Looks like I'm gonna finish up at about 1.5 inches. Shocked by this one.

Really heavy burst underway currently. Maybe the heaviest of the evening.

I'll forgive the RAP for its failure last system. I'm about to cross the 1 inch mark. Complete surprise.

Still pouring down quarters.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 1020 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 TNZ012>018-035>047-070-121100- Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson- Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene- Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Jefferson- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Hartford, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, Hampton, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, and White Pine 1020 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...Bands of Snow Through Early Friday Morning... Bands of snow will move across the northern Plateau and northeast Tennessee through early Friday morning. The heaviest band may quickly produce 1/2 to 1 inch of snow mainly areas near the Kentucky and Virginia state line. Travel impacts will be possible through early morning especially elevated surface such as bridges and overpasses. Drive with caution and slow down. $$

It's absolutely dumping here right now. Heaviest snow since November 10th.