John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GFS has a .0001 percent chance to verify, but it looks like the most epic 46 day weeklies run you can imagine but over 15 days roughly.
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Not by much, but the Euro AI snow is just a little heavier and a little further south.
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Oh, I never trust the GFS. I know it's going to pull the football.
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Every run of the GFS drops 10 inches on me.
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I will just say temperature wise, the NAM had me at 33 at 10pm, I was 29. The 3k NAM has me at 33 at 11pm, but I'm currently 28. The 02 HRRR says I should be 31 at 11pm.
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The ICON appeared to be very cold compared to others models. Less of the east sees warming.
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The graphic MRX released has my general area snowing for 12 hours Saturday, 6 light and 6 moderate snow. Then wintry mix of sleet for 6 hours, then 3 hours of freezing rain, 6 hours of rain, back to 3 hours of mix and 6 hours of moderate snow to finish.
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The high res models try very very hard to account for terrain. Probably too hard at times. It's because their resolution is so small they see every hill and valley. Are those fingers deep valley areas?
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3k keeps me sleet out through 60. Seems colder than the 12k.
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When viewing snow maps from more than 12 hours out, see my avatar for guidance.
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The Euro was 3-5 degrees cooler in the first 12 hours of the event across the area.
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The GFS won't back off me getting 8-12 inches of snow and MRX must love it because they keep saying Kentucky border counties are likely to stay mostly snow. Snow here did increase on every model compared to last night, so far at 12z.
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Yeah, the Euro is a nothing burger for the eastern half of the state. If it verified, I don't even think they'd need more than a brief winter weather advisory.
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In the craziest irony, Tennessee and North Carolina are the only two southern states that haven't had a huge anomalous winter storm the past two years. And even crazier, the Florida panhandle has had two. Warm noses kill us, but don't affect Florida. It's insane.
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I hadn't looked at the GFS. It still managed to give me 10 inches. I'm 1000 percent sure it's wrong, but I'd be overjoyed with that.
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MRX has a lot of eggs in a heavy GFS blend.
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The worst thing about this, the super Euro rug pull on me a few years ago, everything trended very far east over the last 48 hours. I was modeled to get 30 inches on a Euro run and ended up on the west edge of precipitation. I think Tri got 10 inches from it. And of course all the crazy suppressed runs on the gulf last year looked impossible, but it actually moved South and East until go time. Basically whatever we need to happen, just assume the opposite will here and it'll mix or miss.
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This is what I meant earlier when I said the Euro is the exact opposite of consistency currently. It's getting to approximately the same place but is doing it differently each time.
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I honestly wonder if the Canadians are cooperating with the Europeans on weather modeling and leaving us out in the proverbial cold.
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Great. I managed to stay freezing rain basically the whole run.
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The Euro may be right, but it's a mess. It's been different at 500mb every run since 12z yesterday.
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When the phase happens with energy going over gl with the energy in the Pac NW and Baja, we get the SE ridge in response and poleward she goes. When we need a triple phase bomb further east these things fly to the 4 corners of the globe to avoid it.
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Nothing but virga here so far.
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Came here to say this. The Euro is dead to me.
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The ICON was a little wild. I assume it's downsloping very hard and pushing warm air across the entire eastern valley and up against the Plateau. Because it doesn't make sense being on the NW side of a LP and seeing it push warm air into the area.
