John1122

78 would tie the record high in Chattanooga set in December 1951. It was 78 at Tri that same day, 77 in Knoxville, 73 here. 9 days later it was 23 here with a half inch of snow. Otherwise a really warm December. Unfortunately, that's one of the all time warmest winters in Tennessee history. Jan and Feb were both well AN.

Keeping in mind that it just snowed constantly in the 1960s, December 23-24th 1966 saw a widespread 4-8 inch snow event from Nashville to Tri-Cities and points N in Sw Va and SE Kentucky, 2-4 inches along 40, 1-3 inches around Memphis, and unfortunately for Chattanooga, more rain with a back end dusting. Temps around zero for lows on Christmas morning imby. January of 56, by a day preceeded a 4-6+ inch event that went from Memphis to just north of Chattanooga and points north. Jan of '58 was a brief cold shot around the 15th-19th with around 1 inch of snow. The 1995 analog, it got coldish, 30s and 20s for highs and lows with a 1 inch snow here.

Positives. The AH dies. There's a bit of a -NAO. There's no SE ridge. The STJ is waking up a bit, maybe. The cold isn't so suppressive that we are seeing Florida beaches getting buried. The polar vortex may get stretched again in January. For the next two weeks we will have a pattern more conducive for snow than our current pattern of sunbathing weather. The two weeks after that, may, (stress may as always here) be even more conducive. Especially if we get the +PNA to show up, timed with a wave. @GaWx noted that even for areas East of the Apps, the +PNA was the most frequent teleconnection for decent snow events. I'm hoping we also continue the trend he noted of +PNA January conditions that follow -PNA Decembers.

It's wild how scoured out the cold gets on the Euro AI. The entire NA continent is AN to much AN as soon as the Aleutian ridge breaks down. It's like it's the only thing delivering cold to our source region, but as soon as it leaves, all cold goes with it and Pacific air floods everywhere.

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna. You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it. The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest.

Merry Christmas to all as well. I started a January thread, as we are now looking into there for the changes.

We are looking into early January now on modeling. With a potentially potent cold shot coming for the first few days of the year. With any luck, the Pac jet extends towards the polar regions, and then drops back towards the equator, which should get rid of the Aleutian ridge and help get a +PNA look. The GEFS wants nothing to do with that, it keeps the AR and hooks the NAO with Atlantic ridging. The GFS gets rid of the AR but has no -NAO at all, and no +PNA. The GEPS has a PNA ridge and -NAO with an eastern trough. The AIGFS gets rid of the AR and has the -NAO with a small eastern trough and looks like it's starting a +pna at the end. The Euro AI builds a tall PNA ridge by the end but it's scoured out the cold over Canada with much AN temps, but we are slightly BN here by the end. The EPS has a slight +PNA at the end, and a slight trough east and the AR was gone. So, outside of the GFS/GEFS we could be building towards a good pattern for us around Jan 8th-10th. The heart of winter is Jan 15th to Feb 15th. If we get to peak climo with the +PNA/-NAO look that's about all you can ask for.

We are creeping towards a possible -NAO/+PNA pattern. It still may not snow, because you just never know here, but that's as good as it gets for the chance of a winter storm here as far as blocking goes.

The GFS is mostly ugly with a capital UGH in the long range. +NAO/-PNA/Aleutian Ridge rock solid. Who knows if it verifies, as it's been flopping back and forth so much lately.

The Canadian keeps the subzero cold. The GFS lays down some anafrontal snow on Monday now with that cold front passage.

Mammoth has gotten 28 inches as of 4pm local time. The forecast through Friday. "Tonight Snow. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a south southwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 35 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible. Friday Snow showers before 1pm, then snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible."

Mammoth got over a foot of snow in a couple of hours overnight. Up to 100 inches expected in the area. I like to watch it, but when they're getting buried, we usually are waiting on the pattern to change.

A true PNA will basically always work for cold here. It means drier weather in our area but as Jeff has noted, below normal precip doesn't mean it's not good for snow. Above normal precip here usually means the warm flow from the Pac or Gulf is coming, and all the issues they cause.

We will see if it holds, but the Aleutian ridge is basically eliminated by the end of the Euro run and it looks like a +PNA is building. If that happens, January 10th and beyond could be plenty of Pacific driven good times. Traditionally when it collapses extreme winter periods of 2 to 3 weeks can happen.

Here's an article about the snow leading up to the ice storm. This was a southern slider that got all of us, and heavier snow fell into Alabama. Birmingham got 6 inches. Nashville 5 inches. Memphis 5 inches. Along and north of 40 in East Tennessee it was around 2-3 inches. But we'd gotten snow a couple days before this and it snowed in the NW flow area for days after it. We had 2 inches on the 10th, .5 the 11th, .75 the 12th, frigid with a high of 3 on the 11th and 10 on the 12th, lows below 0, the system from the article below came with that airmass in place, we got 3 inches of snow on the 13th, 1.5 on the 14th, .75 the 15th, .5 the 16th, .5 the 17th, as subzero cold squeezed out every drop of moisture, the ice storm on the 18th with .85 freezing rain. I remember smashed cedar trees that lined our driveway, and powerlines sagging towards the ground. It was solid ice on deeply frozen ground. "January 14th, 1982 The epic Winter of '82 stunned the Deep South and East Coast Thursday with a new round of snow and icestorms -- the latest chapter in a continuing siege of severe weather blamed for more than 200 deaths. Blizzards again threatened the Midwest. Dazed southerners suffered through their second storm in 72 hours - a 6-inch deep blanket of snow and ice. New Yorkers barely had time to dry off their snow shovels before turning around to face the remnants of a second storm that began its attack on the city late Thursday. New snows from 3 to 6 inches were forecast on top of 4 to 7 inches of snow that hit late Wednesday before moving up the coast. At least 216 deaths have been blamed on the weather that set 20th Century records for low temperatures. The back-to-back winter storms claimed at least 60 lives in the South alone. In New York two teenage youths fell through the ice-covered surface of Brooklyn's Prospect Park and drowned Thursday when they became trapped under a large chunk of ice. Two other youths also fell through the ice but were rescued. Seven police officers were injured in the rescue attempt. A St. Louis police officer examining a parked car covered with snow and ice opened the door to check for a vehicle identification number and found a body frozen behind the steering wheel. And an employee of New York's Sanitation Department suffered a broken leg when he was run over by his plow after his vehicle struck an object in the road and threw him from the cab. The cruel storms have taken their toll of crops and poultry items, leaving consumers with expected price increases for citrus fruits, vegetables, eggs and chickens. Snow fell in north Florida Thursday, but southern portions of the state were deluged by tropical thunderstorms and winds whipping up to 60 mph. A tornado cut a path a mile long and 100 yards wide in Fort Myers causing an estimated $300,000 in damages to homes. No serious injuries were reported. Furious storms wreaked havoc on Massachusetts, dumping up to a foot of snow in some areas. Boston had almost a foot of snow and strong northerly winds were whipping the accumulations into near-blizzard conditions. All along the east coast, especially southeastern New England, the second half of the storm was expected to hit during the night with forecasters calling for up to another foot of snow, gale-force winds and freezing temperatures. 'This one looks like a big storm with gale winds and considerable blowing and drifting snow expected,' a weather service spokesman said. Connecticut received 6 to 8 inches of new snow, Rhode Island got 8 inches in northern portions of the state and about 6 inches in southern areas. Higher prices for eggs and poultry loom on the horizon for consumers as a result of the bitter cold weather that froze much of the South. 'We're in some pretty tough times as far as poultry growing is concerned,' said Lionel Barton, a poultry expert with the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service. Many baby chicks died in the cold weather and the hens that lived are laying fewer eggs. Florida citrus growers estimated their losses at $500 billion. But in New York Richard Norton, a regional fruit specialist with the Monroe County Cooperative Extension, said a gradual cooling around the Finger Lakes and western New York area last fall helped prepare fruit trees and grapes for this week's subzero readings. Six inches of snow fell on parts of southern Maryland and state police reported 4 inches of snowfall on the lower Eastern Shore. Up to 6 inches of snow fell over Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, making already slippery highways treacherous. An estimated 1 million people were left without power because of ice buildups on utility lines and trees -- 750,000 of those were in Alabama. The weather did little to keep thieves in tow. Atlanta police said 19 people forced to walk home or seek shelter Tuesday night were robbed and dozens of motorists who abandoned their cars after the first snowstorm returned to find their batteries, radios and other valuables had been looted. One Atlanta woman barely made it to the hospital in time to deliver her baby. 'I was worried,' said Gretchen Rehlin, mother of a new daughter. She was forced to walk the last half mile to the hospital because of stalled traffic. 'But my husband was more worried because he was the one who would have had to deal with it (the delivery)."

There's a good reason, it was nearly 70 by the end of January. No idea where that snow storm report came from. The next snow event imby was February 5th/6th timeframe, with 2 inches. Then 1.5 around the 10th.

Looks like January 1982 is showing up as an analog at 500mb according to Webb. January 1982 was the year it snowed basically every day for a week. The biggest was 3 inches, but it would snow 1/2 to 1 inch almost every day. We had accumulating snowfall on 9 of 10 days. Even Knoxville recorded 1.5 inches 3 days in a row. It was capped off by an epic ice storm on January 18th, that the NWS records for some reason, ignore for Knoxville. It says Knoxville got .21 qpf of ice in the "official" record. This is from a KNS article about January 18th/19th 1982. "That Jan. 18th date was all about ice. The mother of all freezing rains turned the entire area into a skating rink with ice an inch or more thick in most places. Law enforcement reported more than 150 wrecks. Power failures showed up across the grid. Schools and businesses were shut down. Downtown hotels filled up with ice-locked workers unable to get home. The less fortunate spent the night in their cars unable to do anything but spin their wheels. The National Weather Service personnel called it the worst ice storm they'd seen in decades. Stories abounded of people latching up their ice skates for a trip to the store or literally crawling from their cars to get back into their homes and offices." Temperatures in the -10s here just before that ice storm.

I think we'd all take this, with single digit cold pressing in behind the second clipper.

The Canadian is just full blown winter, snow, ice box cold before New Years and after. +PNA looks beginning to appear and downstream we win. Old fashioned clipper/Siberian express on there.

The Canadian is into the vodka for cold to close the month. Dry as a bone unfortunately.

Keep in mind, a lot of what Webb talks about is in regards to how things will affect areas East of the Apps. For me, I'm certain that the Aleutian high will break down, they all do. Where we go when it does, I don't know.

It usually means our weather is winter warm, but I can at least live vicariously when they get two 3+ feet snows 3x a week.

There's a wild temperature gradient across my area right now. I just came home from Knoxville, and dropped my friend and his wife off in Caryville, it was 57 at his house. It's 31 at my house. I live 10 miles NE of him.

The 0z GFS is a heatwave, but possible light at the end of the tunnel as the Aleutian high collapses finally at the end of the run. They tend to end that way, just beastly and then they go away. It's ending on that run around January 5th, which would be close to it's average 32 day lifecycle.

Cousin at 2400 feet in an exposed area said that at 10:50 they recorded a gust at 75mph then the aneometer broke off. Had some reports of roofs blown off. Huge trees are down too. Wide spread power outages.