John1122

I'm not paying much attention to models currently. They're just wildly different run to run, model to model. The 0z GFS is 30+ degrees colder late run than the 0z AIGFS. Recently, the AI was 20-30 degrees colder than the regular GFS. For me, I'm going to see how things look in a week or so to see if the pattern moves forward.

Mammoth Snowfall Rates are expected to hit 3.3 inches per hour tomorrow at noon. They are expecting up to 4 feet with 100mph wind gusts. They had 11 inches overnight into this morning. As long as it's snowing like that there, we're not going to be having much in the way of winter chances.

Thanks for the update. I couldn't remember if it was '76 or '77 when I went to type that out.

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6.

I just sits there with the firehose turned on over Arkansas and West Tennessee, up the Ohio River valley pumping in warm air and moisture. Like 3-4 days of heavy rain with zero movement eastward because there's a Bermuda high that would make summer Bermuda high's jealous. Even with a massive west coast ridge, and major blocking over Greenland/Davis Straits, nothing moves at all.

The Euro has a LP that moves from Colorado, southwest towards So Cal and then it just sit there over the Southwest.

Gone. Huge block into the Arctic. -EPO, +PNA, cross polar flow from Siberia.

The 00z AI GFS is even colder than 18z. Looks like it has a powerful frontal passage that plows through the moisture for some anafrontal snow, then a clipper reinforces the cold and brings a 1-3 inch type snow across the area. Single digit temps in its wake.

Losing snow events to wild modeling misses, and coaching searches are what we do best on Rocky Top. With how Heupel closed this season, and how tough the schedule gets the next two season, the coaching search will be coming before too long.

The 18z GFSAI spikes a big poleward ridge out west and the cross polar flow blasts into our backyard. Temps around 12 to 15f below normal. My normal high in mid-Jan is 42, low 21. So that's a cold stretch for D-11 to D 16, with the cold building as we reach D16.

22 with a stiff wind from the south, and snow blowing in sideways.

If we can actually get to the progression shown on the Euro/EuroAi regarding blocking, virtually every time we have seen that pattern, it's produced a snow/winter precip event, or multiples of them.

I use freeimage.host. Just add the image you want, once it's uploaded, click on it, then open the image only in a new tab, copy that link and paste it here.

I was coming to say that the Euro/GEM/EuroAi all have some wintery threats loaded. No monsters but active potential once the Pacific locks in. The GFS, which could be right, is on an island. It's verified horribly here and in the Pac NW over the last 90 days. Way too cold there, way too warm here.

Way out but a big slider/snow event on the AI GFS that run. Temps in the 20s with over half an inch of QPF south of I-40, around .3 north of 40. Would probably have been a widespread 4-8 inch snow for most of the forum area.

How to keep the Gulf of Alaska low from flooding pacific air into the NA continent. Pac jet pumps the Alaskan ridge into steroid range, and sends snow level cold to Florida.

As soon as I say suppression isn't an issue, the Euro has snow on the beaches.

78 would tie the record high in Chattanooga set in December 1951. It was 78 at Tri that same day, 77 in Knoxville, 73 here. 9 days later it was 23 here with a half inch of snow. Otherwise a really warm December. Unfortunately, that's one of the all time warmest winters in Tennessee history. Jan and Feb were both well AN.

Keeping in mind that it just snowed constantly in the 1960s, December 23-24th 1966 saw a widespread 4-8 inch snow event from Nashville to Tri-Cities and points N in Sw Va and SE Kentucky, 2-4 inches along 40, 1-3 inches around Memphis, and unfortunately for Chattanooga, more rain with a back end dusting. Temps around zero for lows on Christmas morning imby. January of 56, by a day preceeded a 4-6+ inch event that went from Memphis to just north of Chattanooga and points north. Jan of '58 was a brief cold shot around the 15th-19th with around 1 inch of snow. The 1995 analog, it got coldish, 30s and 20s for highs and lows with a 1 inch snow here.

Positives. The AH dies. There's a bit of a -NAO. There's no SE ridge. The STJ is waking up a bit, maybe. The cold isn't so suppressive that we are seeing Florida beaches getting buried. The polar vortex may get stretched again in January. For the next two weeks we will have a pattern more conducive for snow than our current pattern of sunbathing weather. The two weeks after that, may, (stress may as always here) be even more conducive. Especially if we get the +PNA to show up, timed with a wave. @GaWx noted that even for areas East of the Apps, the +PNA was the most frequent teleconnection for decent snow events. I'm hoping we also continue the trend he noted of +PNA January conditions that follow -PNA Decembers.

It's wild how scoured out the cold gets on the Euro AI. The entire NA continent is AN to much AN as soon as the Aleutian ridge breaks down. It's like it's the only thing delivering cold to our source region, but as soon as it leaves, all cold goes with it and Pacific air floods everywhere.

I really wish the models didn't just keep reloading the -pna. You can see in the brief positive periods we get very cold, but it quickly flips to - and we warm way up. The AR breaking down is a positive but getting to the +pna will really really help if we can get there and get any staying power with it. The GGEM/GEPS is best at the +pna and is therefore by far the coldest.

Merry Christmas to all as well. I started a January thread, as we are now looking into there for the changes.

We are looking into early January now on modeling. With a potentially potent cold shot coming for the first few days of the year. With any luck, the Pac jet extends towards the polar regions, and then drops back towards the equator, which should get rid of the Aleutian ridge and help get a +PNA look. The GEFS wants nothing to do with that, it keeps the AR and hooks the NAO with Atlantic ridging. The GFS gets rid of the AR but has no -NAO at all, and no +PNA. The GEPS has a PNA ridge and -NAO with an eastern trough. The AIGFS gets rid of the AR and has the -NAO with a small eastern trough and looks like it's starting a +pna at the end. The Euro AI builds a tall PNA ridge by the end but it's scoured out the cold over Canada with much AN temps, but we are slightly BN here by the end. The EPS has a slight +PNA at the end, and a slight trough east and the AR was gone. So, outside of the GFS/GEFS we could be building towards a good pattern for us around Jan 8th-10th. The heart of winter is Jan 15th to Feb 15th. If we get to peak climo with the +PNA/-NAO look that's about all you can ask for.

We are creeping towards a possible -NAO/+PNA pattern. It still may not snow, because you just never know here, but that's as good as it gets for the chance of a winter storm here as far as blocking goes.