John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Yeah, the Euro is a nothing burger for the eastern half of the state. If it verified, I don't even think they'd need more than a brief winter weather advisory.
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In the craziest irony, Tennessee and North Carolina are the only two southern states that haven't had a huge anomalous winter storm the past two years. And even crazier, the Florida panhandle has had two. Warm noses kill us, but don't affect Florida. It's insane.
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I hadn't looked at the GFS. It still managed to give me 10 inches. I'm 1000 percent sure it's wrong, but I'd be overjoyed with that.
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MRX has a lot of eggs in a heavy GFS blend.
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The worst thing about this, the super Euro rug pull on me a few years ago, everything trended very far east over the last 48 hours. I was modeled to get 30 inches on a Euro run and ended up on the west edge of precipitation. I think Tri got 10 inches from it. And of course all the crazy suppressed runs on the gulf last year looked impossible, but it actually moved South and East until go time. Basically whatever we need to happen, just assume the opposite will here and it'll mix or miss.
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This is what I meant earlier when I said the Euro is the exact opposite of consistency currently. It's getting to approximately the same place but is doing it differently each time.
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I honestly wonder if the Canadians are cooperating with the Europeans on weather modeling and leaving us out in the proverbial cold.
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Great. I managed to stay freezing rain basically the whole run.
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The Euro may be right, but it's a mess. It's been different at 500mb every run since 12z yesterday.
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When the phase happens with energy going over gl with the energy in the Pac NW and Baja, we get the SE ridge in response and poleward she goes. When we need a triple phase bomb further east these things fly to the 4 corners of the globe to avoid it.
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Nothing but virga here so far.
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Came here to say this. The Euro is dead to me.
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The ICON was a little wild. I assume it's downsloping very hard and pushing warm air across the entire eastern valley and up against the Plateau. Because it doesn't make sense being on the NW side of a LP and seeing it push warm air into the area.
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The NAM was about 70 miles south with the 850s vs 12z, the 70 mile shift in the vort pieces did it.
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No idea if it will make a difference, but the 12z NAM had me at 17 at 4am Saturday, the 18z has me at 14. The HP is further south,
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The NAM is about 70 miles better with every piece of the vorts at 500 it looks like.
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There looks to be a little more separation on the energy pieces out west on the name through hour 40.
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The EPS is probably closer to the Euro AI than it is the OP Euro, temp wise.
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When heavy precip is falling and ice is all over everything, it's much harder to warm surface temps than models indicate. Especially in deep valleys.
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The LP on the AI tracks from Mobile to the Apps, about 100 miles SE of the main Euro. The AI tends to win these battles over the last year.
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It's a massive ice storm for just about the whole state.
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The Euro AI is a massive winter storm, over an inch of QPF and almost no one in Tennessee above freezing through 96, at 102 east Tn gets above freezing.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If this one doesn't trend back, and we get a rainy cutter, I'm going to retire from model watching, at least for this winter. It's insane how everything is perfect for a week and then everything goes haywire. -
Yeah, this, if this holds, is the biggest modeling failure of all time. Relentless ice storm on the euro that changes to rain.
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Of course Arkansas still gets their 15+ inches.
