John1122
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If this one doesn't trend back, and we get a rainy cutter, I'm going to retire from model watching, at least for this winter. It's insane how everything is perfect for a week and then everything goes haywire. -
Yeah, this, if this holds, is the biggest modeling failure of all time. Relentless ice storm on the euro that changes to rain.
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Of course Arkansas still gets their 15+ inches.
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The Euro is probably going to repeat 18z.
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Euro AI is a county north with the heavy snow vs 18z. Lots of ice/sleet on it after some snow, with blazing 850s and surface temps mainly in the 20s.
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That H being 400 miles N of North Dakota when all other models have it 10mb or more stronger and over the Iowa,Illinois, Minnesota area, is suspect.
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That's the second time in 2 days the UKIE cut. The reason it does, it has a 1035 high 1000 miles north of all other modeling.
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The UKIE is like "hey, let's have a severe thunderstorm outbreak mid winter storm as I cut due north and flood 50s into Tennessee!"
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The GEM still does crazy uncle things at times.
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Canadian is super amped but it has been the entire time it's had the storm.
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I saw a tweet that the GFS got some HH data for the 00z run, but that more would come tomorrow.
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850s begin working south again by 108. Huge snow storm likely north of 40, big snow and major ice south of 40 in eastern areas. Ai GFS.
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AI GFS is mighty cold and spitting out QPF. By 102 the 850s reach I-40 with over an inch of qpf down.
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The RUFUS was a colder and juicer version of the NAM at 84. The snow line was 2 or 3 counties south of the NAM.
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The ICON was just brutal for Knoxville, 24 with heavy freezing rain over a solid snow pack.
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Better than 12z and 18z was heading here.
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ICON is another major major winter storm. Snow to some zr and back to snow.
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The NAM at the end show a classic winter storm set up for our area. A big 1045H in SE Minnesota with subzero cold under it. Precip sliding West to East. The sleet area is literally about 1 degree in the upper levels from being snow. With no flow off the gulf at that hour, it should be snow.
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That piece of Montana energy has been there, but it doesn't get connected with the Baja energy on the good runs today. On 18z it did and three pieces phased. It could be the final look, but triple phasers are rare. That said, your area still got huge snow totals on the 18z from what I could tell. I did decently as well. If you'd told me a week ago that I'd be in like to get 6+ inches of snow with some freezing rain, I'd have jumped on it all day. But once you see 20 inches on a euro run and 15+ across all modeling the perspective changes. Its rare to get chances at truly historic snow events.
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Odds are the Euro doesn't triple phase at 0z and we are closer to the last 10 runs of it.
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The lp track is 90 miles north and 2mb stronger at 18 vs 12z and that wrecks thermals. Ops are prone to large movements still at this range. The AI usually us extremely steady inside D5 and it barely changed at all. Just a small wobble.
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Triple phasers happen about once every 10 to 15 years. Let's hope this one isn't it.
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So the Lakes low strikes even this.
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I take solace that the AI isn't remotely as warm as the Euro OP.
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It's hard to fathom a world where the Euro folds to the Canadian.
