John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The EPS also improved vs 12z.
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Its not so much that it loses it, it's that the low is further north than the GFS so the precip is too. It did move more to the south and west vs 12z with the slight step towards the GFS.
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That clipper on the euro is almost what the gfs showed the other day. It thumps northern middle Tn and southern middle Kentucky where those convective looking snow showers are.
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Second wave is a clipper on the euro with connective snow showers. If you get caught under one you'll get dumped on.
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Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS.
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Pops too late for most of us on the Euro. Eastern mountains and SW Va make out though.
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The Euro is maybe a little better with the first wave than 12z so far. Nothing like the GFS with that Lee side low it pops and bombs us, at least not yet. Still rolling.
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Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same.
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The AI GFS has wave one and two. Cooperative 540s. BN 850s. But temps in the mid to upper 30s even with precip falling and crashing 850s.
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The UKIE is in the Canadian camp. Not much cooking there except some NW flow snow showers and cold. It's not the best place to be on team ICON/GFS vs the other models.
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The GFS would be just about perfect for most of us if it came to pass. First wave buries the east side, the second is nice 3-5 inches for the west and still added 1-2 inches over the rest of the state.
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The second wave is also big on the GFS. The Canadian sees none of the first wave.
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@tnweathernut nailed it. Huge hitter on the first wave there from the gfs.
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Then it sends a clipper through at the end of the run and ends up here.
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ICON lost the second wave, like the Euro.
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ICON hits from Eastern Rim and points east, especially north of 40, on the 15th. Another round headed for Western areas by the 16th or so, with snow breaking out in Arkansas.
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If I recall correctly the AIEuro was better than just about every other model regarding snow last winter. The GEM was usually too extreme.
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The Euro is extremely suppressed, which isn't uncommon for it at this range.
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I'm not sure if the AIGFS is rain or snow, I'd lean rain but 850s are below 32 and 925s are right at it, however surface temps are mid to upper 30s.
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Euro AI is just a printer repeat of it's prior runs. Too warm unfortunately west of the eastern Highland Rim/Murfreesboro area but snows over the eastern half.
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That would be a turn out the lights special south of 40, since it's around 32/33 degrees.
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AMZ working on 16 inches that run.
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Chattanooga about to get crushed on the GFS.
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The GFS is going to be dream worthy.
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ICON was decent for the nearly the whole forum area. It would be great to get a classic west to east blanket.
