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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Probably time for a February thread. The Euro is already trying to shaft us with a system next week that looks about like this one. Weak sauce here and it buries NE Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Meanwhile, the GFS gives us rain and smokes southern Kentucky with 6 inches. So we are right in the middle of the two, but we know it'll either fade far south or go north.
  2. John1122
    You could have the issues Carvers mentions, but across all modeling you're looking at 4-10+ inches at this point.
  3. John1122
    And by stepped back, I mean for those of us in the screw zone/western edge. It still pounds the far eastern areas with 6-10 inches.
  4. John1122
    Not surprisingly at this point, the Euro stepped back from it's 18z run. It's so odd that it's changing the same way every other run.
  5. John1122
    The Canadian was the first to nail the warm nose/ice issues last week because it handled the vort over the arctic that came into Montana and screwed us, before the other models, including the Euro. Now, watch it get this one wrong.
  6. John1122
    The GFS looks like a blend of the RGEM and NAM, which worries me for the RGEM.
  7. John1122
    There was a few flurries at my house about 30 or 40 minutes ago. We don't have much snow left but it's ice and sleet in the layers too so it's not melting on these cold days. It would have been incredible to have gotten 10+ inches and had these temps after it.
  8. John1122
    I truly hope the RGEM is handling all the energy over Canada better than other models. It and the Canadian schooled all the American models with this last storm. It went warm nose, ice to rain early and never wavered. The American models were dropping 12+ here at 72-84 hours still.
  9. John1122
    Weather Next was basically a copy and paste of 12z.
  10. John1122
    The EPS was around 20 percent higher with QPF vs 12z.
  11. John1122
    If 0z tics less qpf, that will be something like the 10th run in a row with the 12/0 vs 18/6 precip shift.
  12. John1122
    I fully expect a snatch and splat.
  13. John1122
    Dramatically stronger from the Euro. Apparently it just exists to do the opposite of the GFS.
  14. John1122
    The Euro AI bumped up totals slightly, continuing the 18/6z vs 12/0z trend.
  15. John1122
    The most frustrating thing about all this is that we've had an epic pattern but haven't done diddly squat with it east of the midstate.
  16. John1122
    The GFS caved to the Euro earlier than normal.
  17. John1122
    The RGEM would be about as good as it could get for the most folks.
  18. John1122
    RGEM is having a much better ULL pass.
  19. John1122
    Not very good for most of us on that run. Too far east with the ull.
  20. John1122
    The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.
  21. John1122
    15z SREF was .3 to .5 qpf for most of East Tn out to 87 hrs. With .1 back to Nashville, and .2 down to Chattanooga. The NAM should be decent based on that.
  22. John1122
    I believe the RGEM is 3 basically.
  23. John1122
    I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row.
  24. John1122
    Weather Next is similar to it's 06z run, it has around an inch of snow back to Nashville. Around 2 inches eastern rim/western Plateau, 3+ inches along 75 corridor to the Smokies, and 4+ in NE areas east of 81.
  25. John1122
    Hopefully the Euro ticks back west some with the ULL at 18z. It's been doing that on the 18z/06z runs.
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