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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    We are -8 for the month, but normally you arrive there by being -16 and then normal over short periods. This has been essentially-7 to -10 each day, so nothing super cold.
  2. John1122
    To me, it's the shape of the ridge in the West. It's not been sharp S to N oriented so the cold hasn't been pressing south, more West to East. The GFS sharpens the Western Ridge and the cold crashes south.
  3. John1122
    The GFS is just ridiculously cold and dry as a bone. Shades of December '83 all over again.
  4. John1122
    The extra oomph in qpf came with the cost of a warming push.
  5. John1122
    It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.
  6. John1122
    Mostly sleet with some snow and freezing rain here now. Temp is 32, I doubt we go any lower.
  7. John1122
    Sleet and snow mixed here in town.
  8. John1122
    33 with light to moderate snow here. About to head off the mountain for a while. Looks like no precip down that way currently.
  9. John1122
    Snow is probably an overstatement. More like flake currently, but I've got hope.
  10. John1122
    34 degrees with a little bit of snow falling.
  11. John1122
    It looked like Maine or somewhere here in 1996. There was snow piled up to the bottom of stop signs and in mountains in parking lots from Early January until around Valentines Day.
  12. John1122
    There looks to be some snow moving by to my south right now.
  13. John1122
    Huge move for the UKIE, it looks about like the 14z RAP. It has been very dry/warm.
  14. John1122
    The 15z axis is slightly north but bullseyes the Nashville area.
  15. John1122
    The 14z HRRR was very similar to the RAP.
  16. John1122
    I suspect it's going to collapse at some point, but the RAP just gave me 4 inches. Sharp cutoff south of about 15 miles north of 40.
  17. John1122
    The warm nose that Holston mentioned in a prior post is often a problem for valley areas. It tends to be more prevalent towards Nashville and from Chattanooga to Knoxville. In this case there's also a general lack of heavy precip on some modeling and that doesn't cool the column as efficiently.
  18. John1122
    The 12z RAP and HRRR are relatively steady regarding the arc of snow compared to 06z. I still have my doubts about each.
  19. John1122
  20. John1122
    OHX has issued WWA for snow, sleet, and freezing rain for their Plateau areas.
  21. John1122
    The Rufus is similar, and a bit south with the snow line, to the other hi-res models. The Rufus is supposed to replace the NAM and NAM 3k at some point. The Rufus has 1.5 inches across downtown Knoxville.
  22. John1122
    The NAM, HRRR and RAP all look somewhat similar now.
  23. John1122
    The 03z RAP looks similar to the 21z with a decent strip of 2-3 inches of snow in the same areas. The RAP and HRRR are more stark with rain or snow vs freezing rain or mix.
  24. John1122
    Hard to trust it, but the RAP just delivered big for 40 and North across the forum. Bullseye around Jax.
  25. John1122
    It's been a time to forget since we beat Houston.
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