John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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With the near zero cold coming, it would potentially be a horrible situation. I feel you on the outages. We are frequent fliers on that here. As a mountain community, we aren't exactly high priority normally either.
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The Euro is less QPF than other models, but would still have around .7 qpf as ice down that way, capped with some snow.
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We go deep into the ice box on the Euro with that snow cover. Some -10ish stuff showing up in Western areas.
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Eventually the whole forum area turns to snow except that sliver in SE TN and N Alabama.
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The Euro is snow for most of the state, a bad ice storm along and south of 40 in East Tennessee that should change to snow.
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The Euro looks like a blend of the AI and Canadian probably.
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I'm not sure about freezing rain vs sleet on the AI. 850s are warm, but 925s are subfreezing over a lot of the areas that are getting precip. Not sure how thick the sub-freezing layer is above 925, and I'm not sure how deep the subfreezimg layer needs to be to produce sleet vs freezing rain.
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The AI was just about a carbon copy of 18z and 12z. Massive ice storm Plateau and west with finally a little frozen reaching the mountains after a stubborn warm nose sits over that way.
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I don't know why we can't have simple, nice snow events that cooperate any more. Looking back at 1996, it was spotted 5-6 days out and had winter storm watches posted 3 days out, with Winter Storm Warnings 24 hours out. That shows up as an analog on the packages today but we still have complete chaos. From a near miss on the ICON to that amped monster on the UKIE, and we're basically 4 to 5 days out with modeling upgrades that are comparable to a model t vs a Tesla.
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Hate seeing that from the UKIE. Makes me think the Euro family will lean that way.
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I'm curious to see if the Euro Ai changes much at all. It's not given to huge shifts once things get to around 120 hours.
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GFS just snowing for days over the deep south isn't normally likely, but for the second time in less than 12 months Florida counties had verified winter storm warning level snow, so anything is possible, especially if we (the forum region in large part) are missing out mostly on those runs.
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Another long duration freezing rain event on the AI from the Plateau and points west. I hope we can get a favorable trend with it but it locks on like a dog with a bone and doesn't often waiver much. And for better or worse it usually ends up closer to actual events than other models. That seems especially true inside d5.
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With how abhorrent data collection and retention is for our area, that's a huge red flag.
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The AI GFS is not our friend. Major warming issues.
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I've not seen an output. I just saw that I dip into the 20s somewhere between 138 and 144, and remain there as the precip falls. The 850s were so warm I assumed freezing rain instead of sleet.
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That Euro AI run had me in the 20s with something like 1.5 inches of qpf, mostly ice I assume since 850s were screaming.
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Not surprised that Feb 96 was one.
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It's arguably the most severe winter event in Tennessee Valley history imo. Almost 1985 cold, almost 1993 level snow, and apocalyptic ice/sleet in Miss/Alabama, S Tennessee.
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Feb 1-2nd 1996.
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The 1045 over Minnesota is a classic winter storm set up here and the Euro reflects that. Our biggest winter storms very often have extreme cold outbreaks in Minnesota.
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The Euro is essentially Feb 2nd 1996.
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The 12z GFS is nightmare fuel for mby. Fortunately it's the worst model on the planet currently.
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The GFS(old unfaithful), through the same time frame as the Icon, has a light event with maybe snow this coming Thursday (higher elevations mainly). Then a epic rain storm (it will nail that from a week out), with a 1057 HP coming behind it down from Canada that will no doubt suppress things down to another WSW scenario in the deep south (south Georgia is under a winter storm warning now, their second in 11 months).
