John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Euro is just a little too warm for most of Tennessee heading into the weekend, with very light precip. After, it gets cold, but barely any qpf, looks like warmth and moisture return together mid-month but that may be a head fake too. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The UKIE, GGEM, and ICON show a winter event of varying degrees in the area. The Canadian would be a major winter storm with significant ice along the 40 corridor from the mid-state to the mountains. Some snow on top of the ice across areas north of 40. UKIE looks like a long duration sleet event. The ICON is a 1-2 inch snow north of 40. -
I don't use Twitter but it was definitely snow showers causing the foggy look.
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Snow hit town level now. Just drove through a low visibility, nickel and quarter flake sized shower in LaFollette.
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Headed to town in a heavy snow shower, below 1400 feet it was more a misty mix.
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About to get another heavy snow shower it appears. The mountain to the west has disappeared in a snow cloud. Should be here in a few minutes. Still holding at 34.
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Had another decent snow shower about 20 minutes ago. Not showing up on radar at all.
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We had some steady snow this morning but it was 34 and didn't stick on the wet ground. It's currently flurrying.
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The models are just chaos still. Near misses, just too warm for snow events, one late anafrontal for the far east on the gfs. They keep attempting to put a huge trough in the west that so far, has never materialized. Looking at the models 10-12 days ago we should have been torching right now with a big western trough and instead it's 37 with rain here and western areas of the forum have a winter weather advisory. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now the GFS is showing what the Euro did yesterday, a change to heavy snow by Tuesday morning from the Plateau and west along the Tn/Ky border counties. Cranks out 2 inches imby. The HRRR is more vertical with it's bands of snow and further west, deep into Western areas of the forum. -
We are around +1 for November. 1.5 inches of snow. The high was 29 on the 10th. Highest temp was 70. The warmest day was the 22nd, which was +18 due to its high low temperature. Today will probably end up around -8 to close the month. We were BN 16 days of the month and AN 14.
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I feel you! -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Euro is trying to slip in some heavy frozen precip along the back side of the system on Tuesday. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It was heavy sleet for about 15 minutes then it just stopped doing anything. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently have a sleet/snow/graupel mix here as well. -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I thought for sure Heupel was the guy, but he's probably not. Majors is the only coach to lose to Vanderbilt and still have a job 3 years later, since the early 1920s. I won't be shocked if things fall completely apart now. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Saw that Bastardi threw out 83-84 as a potential analog. He's the second Met I've seen it from now. As noted, very frustrating December due to cold vs moisture timing, followed by a very snowy January and February. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
GFS torched because it killed the MJO and headed it back kinda towards 6 in the COD. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Ironically, the GFS ensembles agree more closely at 500 than the Euro in general, and not with it's OP which is a massive WC trough/EC ridge. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It would be hard to be more different than the GFS is vs the Euro in the long range. The GFS is full torch, the Euro is full freezer. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The GFS is slowly trending south with the system on Dec 2nd/3rd. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
UKie/ICON are kind to Clarksville and surrounding areas. Steep gradient from NW Davidson to SE Davidson per the Ukie. The UKIE throws winter AMZ's way too. -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Congratulations Jeff. I can't figure out how Tennessee blew that game ahead by 12 and with Kansas having half your team out with fouls and injuries but they managed it. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Shaping up to be another GFS vs Euro battle. The GFS remains amped, the Euro remains mostly ots/suppressed. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thank you for the clarification!
