Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,543

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The EPS was around 20 percent higher with QPF vs 12z.
  2. John1122
    If 0z tics less qpf, that will be something like the 10th run in a row with the 12/0 vs 18/6 precip shift.
  3. John1122
    I fully expect a snatch and splat.
  4. John1122
    Dramatically stronger from the Euro. Apparently it just exists to do the opposite of the GFS.
  5. John1122
    The Euro AI bumped up totals slightly, continuing the 18/6z vs 12/0z trend.
  6. John1122
    The most frustrating thing about all this is that we've had an epic pattern but haven't done diddly squat with it east of the midstate.
  7. John1122
    The GFS caved to the Euro earlier than normal.
  8. John1122
    The RGEM would be about as good as it could get for the most folks.
  9. John1122
    RGEM is having a much better ULL pass.
  10. John1122
    Not very good for most of us on that run. Too far east with the ull.
  11. John1122
    The EPS, which would normally be less qpf than an OP, was more in-line with the AI Euro and had a larger precip field for Tennessee with .1 back towards Cookeville.
  12. John1122
    15z SREF was .3 to .5 qpf for most of East Tn out to 87 hrs. With .1 back to Nashville, and .2 down to Chattanooga. The NAM should be decent based on that.
  13. John1122
    I believe the RGEM is 3 basically.
  14. John1122
    I wouldn't think so, but others have noted it and it's AI have been doing that for 6-8 runs in a row.
  15. John1122
    Weather Next is similar to it's 06z run, it has around an inch of snow back to Nashville. Around 2 inches eastern rim/western Plateau, 3+ inches along 75 corridor to the Smokies, and 4+ in NE areas east of 81.
  16. John1122
    Hopefully the Euro ticks back west some with the ULL at 18z. It's been doing that on the 18z/06z runs.
  17. John1122
    I think areas near I-81/east currently have a 2-4 inch floor with a much higher ceiling and are almost locked in with a decent snow event. West of 81 back to the Plateau, the 06z Weather Next, GFS, GFS AI, Canadian, RGEM, NAM, are generally 2-4+ inches. Euro Ai is probably 2-3 inches at 12z. The Euro is maybe 1-1.5 at best at 12z, but it was 2-4 at 06z.
  18. John1122
    Brutal for my area if the Euro is correct. QPF cut in half, even of it's own 12z AI and 25 percent of other models. It's been fairly dry, but had been improving.
  19. John1122
    It's further east with the Vort vs prior/better runs. The further east that vort, the further east the moisture.
  20. John1122
    The Euro is probably not going to be very good for areas along and west of 75. Hopefully it's wrong, but it's usually only wrong when it shows significant snow.
  21. John1122
    For some reason the Euro isn't coming out. It's odd that the AI is out though. It's supposed to run off the Euro and just make tweaks to it.
  22. John1122
    The Euro Ai is less qpf than 06z. For some reason the last two days, 06z/18z runs are wetter, 12z/0z runs are more dry.
  23. John1122
    Weather Next 00z has the .25-.50 line back to my area with .50 creeping into NE Tn. The 18z crapped out and never finished. That is a big improvement west over 12z yesterday, which barely had the .25-.50 in far NE Tn.
  24. John1122
    The AI GFS QPF totals, .14 in Nashville, with generally 17:1 to 20:1 ratios. .20 the next tier of counties eastward, trailing SE towards Chattanooga. Around .30 in Cookeville to McMinn Co. .40 in counties along the 75 corridor from my area down to Knoxville. .5 around Morristown. .5 to .7 along the NC border areas into SW VA. The DGZ in nearly to the surface with -12c being around 2400 feet and high humidity from there to 700mb.
  25. John1122
    The GFS has a 986 low bombing just inside Hatteras or over it. 4-12 inches has fallen over East Tennessee by that point. Looks like it pulls away NE rather than heading up the coast.
×
×
  • Create New...