John1122

Down to 33. The roads are very wet, liable to be some icy travel if we get down to 24 as predicted.

Moderate to heavy snow here now.

Now snowing here at 1750. 35.6

Snowing here at 2000 feet.

Temp is down to 39 with a few sprinkles starting.

MRX keeps the higher snow chance tonight for my area but models seem to suggest tomorrow afternoon is the better shot. Either way, they chose to not expand any advisory to my area.

Temp has started falling here. It's down 6 degrees in the last 45 minutes.

Looks like most of the hi-res models are showing some convective streaks of snowfall on Monday into Monday night. If that truly happens, someone who gets under one will have a nice surprise. Temps are generally in the 20s for most areas where they happen.

I'm sure it's wonky but the 0z HRRR just walloped me with about 4 inches. It pushes a 2-3 inch streak over deep west Knox county, Loudon County, and into Blount County. The 21z RAP isn't too far off the HRRR except its 2 inch band runs NE of Knox over Morristown.

The NAM has it cranking snow over me Monday at 7pm at 23 degrees. May be fun if true.

Glad you guys are okay!

Early season, snow in the air is a win. Even if it's flurries. One of my favorite memories is driving to a UT game vs Vanderbilt many many years ago with snow falling, not sticking but just in the air. It's little things like that that keep me in the weather watching hobby.

1962-63 is one of the legendary winters ever here and many other places. It featured a QBO falling deeply negative from fall into winter. Was a weakish La Nina. It had an SSW event. The PDO was negative. The PDO is currently negative. October 1962 was warm, but finally got cold around October 19th. This year was warm, and it finally got cold here and frosted on October 20th. A strong cold front passed in early November and brought light snow to the region, there was even a dusting in lower elevations. After that cold front and snow event, the temp warmed and the warmest temperatures of the month were mid month and late month, as temperatures yo-yo'd a bit. The first few days of December were very warm, then the bottom fell out and December ended -7. The 60s were extreme, but since 2013/14 we've gotten closer to it's weather patterns. Just in a somewhat warmer world. We went years without extreme cold after 1996 and into the early 2010s (nothing sub zero). Since then we've seen sub zero cold invade multiple times and it's back to happening at least 2 to 3 of every 5 or so years. Weather is never exactly the same but large scale patterns will always come back. Like we will eventually get another blizzard or very anomalous snowfall event. A widespread 14-20+ inch type event. The gulf, Texas and deep south have had such events in this enhanced winter pattern we've been in since 2013/14 brought back the subzero weather that had disappeared.

The Euro maintains it's basic camp for our region, the GFS does as well.

The 6z Euro may have been a bit more vigorous that the 0z.

The 06z GFS is starkly different than other modeling regarding snow shower chances. We'll see which way they go over the next 48-72 hours. This may be an all winter trend, as it seems is often the case of very different outcomes being shown by it and the Euro until the last minute.

The QBO should be at a large - number heading into Dec-February. It's rare to see it below -20 in the winter months just due to timing. We are living almost in a golden era that it's happened three times since 2015. Each was a pretty cold winter for a good portion of the forum area, or at least had a very cold section of winter. The only other times it was at -20 in January was 1959 and 1966. That said, how negative it is doesn't matter as much as it's direction. As long as it's dropping, we're good, if it's negative but rising, it's less good. We are in month 6 of it being negative. As a rule, it drops for 9-12 months in a row once it turns negative. So it should start rising between March and Juneish, meaning we should be good for winter. A lot of our notable/legendary winters were with it falling.

The Euro is also really cold. My afternoon temp is 30 on Monday. Lows in the lower 20s.

The Euro came a bit south as well. It hammers Northern Kentucky now and spreads snow well into Tennessee.

Basically all the 0z models are getting closer to the Euro depiction regarding the trough kicking of snow showers across parts of the forum area. The GFS is still showing the least. The ICON took a pretty big step towards the Euro. Now we wait for the Euro itself. Sometimes the other models climb on board and then it loses things.

The UKIE is closer to the Euro than it is to the GFS camp. The model wars have started early, it seems.

The internet archive archives this site. So it's saved there if nothing else.

18z is when the model was ran. This time of year, 0z is the 7pm, 06z is 1am, 12z is 7am, and 18z is 1pm, all those are EST, subtract an hour for CST. Usually around 4 hours after that initialization time, the results show up on websites. The Euro is more like 5 hours later. Carvers' map up there is the output for 21z next Monday. 4pm/3pm November 10th.

Clown map season is beginning. Hopefully all our winter regulars are able to come out again this year. @Holston_River_Rambler @PowellVolz @Stovepipe @Reb @TellicoWx @Silas Lang @tnweathernut @bearman @bearman @BlunderStorm @AMZ8990 @BNAwx @Coach B @fountainguy97 @Greyhound @kvskelton @Knoxtron @Kentucky @Uncle Nasty @Vol Man @Wurbus @Wintersnow888 @8283 El Nino Baby @BuCoVaWx @Chattownsnow @Scottie16 @Shocker0 @McMinnWx @WinterWonderland @Kasper I'm sure I missed some of you, and some not mentioned are around already.

Oh Canada!