John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The ICON was a little wild. I assume it's downsloping very hard and pushing warm air across the entire eastern valley and up against the Plateau. Because it doesn't make sense being on the NW side of a LP and seeing it push warm air into the area.
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The NAM was about 70 miles south with the 850s vs 12z, the 70 mile shift in the vort pieces did it.
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No idea if it will make a difference, but the 12z NAM had me at 17 at 4am Saturday, the 18z has me at 14. The HP is further south,
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The NAM is about 70 miles better with every piece of the vorts at 500 it looks like.
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There looks to be a little more separation on the energy pieces out west on the name through hour 40.
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The EPS is probably closer to the Euro AI than it is the OP Euro, temp wise.
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When heavy precip is falling and ice is all over everything, it's much harder to warm surface temps than models indicate. Especially in deep valleys.
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The LP on the AI tracks from Mobile to the Apps, about 100 miles SE of the main Euro. The AI tends to win these battles over the last year.
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It's a massive ice storm for just about the whole state.
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The Euro AI is a massive winter storm, over an inch of QPF and almost no one in Tennessee above freezing through 96, at 102 east Tn gets above freezing.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If this one doesn't trend back, and we get a rainy cutter, I'm going to retire from model watching, at least for this winter. It's insane how everything is perfect for a week and then everything goes haywire. -
Yeah, this, if this holds, is the biggest modeling failure of all time. Relentless ice storm on the euro that changes to rain.
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Of course Arkansas still gets their 15+ inches.
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The Euro is probably going to repeat 18z.
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Euro AI is a county north with the heavy snow vs 18z. Lots of ice/sleet on it after some snow, with blazing 850s and surface temps mainly in the 20s.
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That H being 400 miles N of North Dakota when all other models have it 10mb or more stronger and over the Iowa,Illinois, Minnesota area, is suspect.
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That's the second time in 2 days the UKIE cut. The reason it does, it has a 1035 high 1000 miles north of all other modeling.
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The UKIE is like "hey, let's have a severe thunderstorm outbreak mid winter storm as I cut due north and flood 50s into Tennessee!"
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The GEM still does crazy uncle things at times.
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Canadian is super amped but it has been the entire time it's had the storm.
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I saw a tweet that the GFS got some HH data for the 00z run, but that more would come tomorrow.
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850s begin working south again by 108. Huge snow storm likely north of 40, big snow and major ice south of 40 in eastern areas. Ai GFS.
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AI GFS is mighty cold and spitting out QPF. By 102 the 850s reach I-40 with over an inch of qpf down.
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The RUFUS was a colder and juicer version of the NAM at 84. The snow line was 2 or 3 counties south of the NAM.
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The ICON was just brutal for Knoxville, 24 with heavy freezing rain over a solid snow pack.
